<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="500"><tbody><tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Yesterday</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">3</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-6.00 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Last 30 Days</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">41</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">57</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-14.20 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2010)</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">67</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">92</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-22.14 Units</td></tr></tbody></table>
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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<o> Oakland +1.07 over DETROIT <o></o>
Ben Sheets may just be getting his groove back. The Rays and Jays absolutely torched Sheets in late April and early May and after facing those two his ERA was 7.12. Since then, Sheets was thrown four games and his ERA has dropped more than two full runs and is now at .504. He threw a gem against the Rangers, Rays and in his last start in San Fran. He’s only allowed one jack over his last four starts and has pitched at least six innings or more in each of them. Sheets also has 29 K’s over his last 25 innings so it really appears as though his strength and his confidence has returned. Remember, this guy was a dominant force for years and he’s just 31 years old. Dontrelle Willis (-19 BPV, 3-5-4-0-1 PQS) has an 8.28 ERA, a -129 BPV over his last two starts and over his last 14 innings he’s issued 13 free passes. The Tigers were going to skip him in the rotation because they’ve had a couple days off this week but Jim Leyland said they decided to stick with the rotation. Yeah, ok. Here’s the truth; they’re paying him 12M this year and they’ll run him into the ground if they have to. The A’s have won five of six while the Tigers have lost four of five and there’s no doubt the value here is on the pooch. Taking a tag back against Willis is never a bad wager. Play: Oakland +1.07 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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TORONTO –1½ +1.23 over Baltimore<o></o>
The Orioles blew a three-run, eighth inning lead yesterday and when the final out was recorded the camera showed many players still sitting in the dugout and staring out to nowhere. It’s the same stare players get after being eliminated in the playoffs and you could just see it in their body language that the loss last night took its toll. So many bad but avoidable things happened in that eighth inning and once again the O’s paid the price. They’re getting used to losing and one really has to wonder how they’re going to bounce back tonight against one of the premier pitchers in the business. They’ll be even more pressure on the O’s tonight because Kevin Millwood is winless and he deserves more wins than 75% of the pitchers in this league. He’s pitch very well indeed but he also thrown a ton of pitches and fatigue is beginning to appear. Millwood has thrown 113, 120, 102, 111, 109, 112, 112 and 115 pitches respectively over his last eight starts. He has allowed 18 hits over his last 14.1 innings and his ERA has been creeping up too. Millwood is very likely in for an implosion very soon and this one sets up well for that to happen. If Shaun Marcum pitched for the Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies or Mets, his comeback this year would be a bigger story than the return of “The Karate Kid”. Marcum is an outstanding pitcher with outstanding stuff. He has a BAA of .211 after 10 starts and rarely does he not pitch into the seventh inning. The Jays have won his last five starts by scores of 12-4, 11-2, 3-2, 7-4 and 9-3. The O’s are 15-33 overall and they’re 6-19 away from Camden Yards and they’re just so ripe to get ripped apart again here. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Kansas City +1.79 over BOSTON (1st 5 innings) <o></o>
This line is so high because it’s the Red Sox vs the Royals at Fenway but when you’re laying huge juice with Tim Wakefield you’re taking a big risk indeed. Wakefield may have thrown eight scoreless innings in his last start, but thanks to 19 fly balls and 2 walks to just 1 strikeout, his xERA for that game was 6.40. The fact is, he can allow 5-7 runs on any given day. When Wakefield gets rocked he almost always gets rocked early and it’s for that reason combined with the Royals very shaky pen that the play here is the Royals in the first five frames. Kyle Davies can usually be counted on for at least five decent innings. Davies is having a strong season and in fact, if you took away one truly awful start against the Rangers a few weeks ago, he would have a 3.21 ERA. The Royals are very capable of scoring a bunch of runs and they have a great chance at a great price to be leading here going to the sixth. Play Kansas City +1.75 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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> Oakland +1.07 over DETROIT <o></o>Ben Sheets may just be getting his groove back. The Rays and Jays absolutely torched Sheets in late April and early May and after facing those two his ERA was 7.12. Since then, Sheets was thrown four games and his ERA has dropped more than two full runs and is now at .504. He threw a gem against the Rangers, Rays and in his last start in San Fran. He’s only allowed one jack over his last four starts and has pitched at least six innings or more in each of them. Sheets also has 29 K’s over his last 25 innings so it really appears as though his strength and his confidence has returned. Remember, this guy was a dominant force for years and he’s just 31 years old. Dontrelle Willis (-19 BPV, 3-5-4-0-1 PQS) has an 8.28 ERA, a -129 BPV over his last two starts and over his last 14 innings he’s issued 13 free passes. The Tigers were going to skip him in the rotation because they’ve had a couple days off this week but Jim Leyland said they decided to stick with the rotation. Yeah, ok. Here’s the truth; they’re paying him 12M this year and they’ll run him into the ground if they have to. The A’s have won five of six while the Tigers have lost four of five and there’s no doubt the value here is on the pooch. Taking a tag back against Willis is never a bad wager. Play: Oakland +1.07 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>TORONTO –1½ +1.23 over Baltimore<o
></o>The Orioles blew a three-run, eighth inning lead yesterday and when the final out was recorded the camera showed many players still sitting in the dugout and staring out to nowhere. It’s the same stare players get after being eliminated in the playoffs and you could just see it in their body language that the loss last night took its toll. So many bad but avoidable things happened in that eighth inning and once again the O’s paid the price. They’re getting used to losing and one really has to wonder how they’re going to bounce back tonight against one of the premier pitchers in the business. They’ll be even more pressure on the O’s tonight because Kevin Millwood is winless and he deserves more wins than 75% of the pitchers in this league. He’s pitch very well indeed but he also thrown a ton of pitches and fatigue is beginning to appear. Millwood has thrown 113, 120, 102, 111, 109, 112, 112 and 115 pitches respectively over his last eight starts. He has allowed 18 hits over his last 14.1 innings and his ERA has been creeping up too. Millwood is very likely in for an implosion very soon and this one sets up well for that to happen. If Shaun Marcum pitched for the Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies or Mets, his comeback this year would be a bigger story than the return of “The Karate Kid”. Marcum is an outstanding pitcher with outstanding stuff. He has a BAA of .211 after 10 starts and rarely does he not pitch into the seventh inning. The Jays have won his last five starts by scores of 12-4, 11-2, 3-2, 7-4 and 9-3. The O’s are 15-33 overall and they’re 6-19 away from Camden Yards and they’re just so ripe to get ripped apart again here. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Kansas City +1.79 over BOSTON (1st 5 innings) <o
></o>This line is so high because it’s the Red Sox vs the Royals at Fenway but when you’re laying huge juice with Tim Wakefield you’re taking a big risk indeed. Wakefield may have thrown eight scoreless innings in his last start, but thanks to 19 fly balls and 2 walks to just 1 strikeout, his xERA for that game was 6.40. The fact is, he can allow 5-7 runs on any given day. When Wakefield gets rocked he almost always gets rocked early and it’s for that reason combined with the Royals very shaky pen that the play here is the Royals in the first five frames. Kyle Davies can usually be counted on for at least five decent innings. Davies is having a strong season and in fact, if you took away one truly awful start against the Rangers a few weeks ago, he would have a 3.21 ERA. The Royals are very capable of scoring a bunch of runs and they have a great chance at a great price to be leading here going to the sixth. Play Kansas City +1.75 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
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