<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="500"><tbody><tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Yesterday</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">3</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">+8.10 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Last 30 Days</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">41</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">56</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-10.98 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2010)</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">70</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">92</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-14.04 Units</td></tr></tbody></table>All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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> St. Louis +1.22 over CHICAGO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>As much as the Cardinals are a team that is usually overvalued and therefore not playable, Carlos Silva is a guy that is long overdue for a big correction in his numbers. Very average pitchers do not stay lucky for long and that’s precisely what Silva has done. It’s remarkable that this very hittable pitcher is 6-0 with an ERA of 3.52 when you consider a lifetime ERA of 4.87 and a career BAA of .303. Fact is, Silva has won four straight and over that stretch he’s struck out 10 lousy batters. That’s 2½ batters a game and that means he’s pitching to contact. Balls have been hit right at people and that cannot last. Also consider that Silva has an unsustainable 77% strand rate and an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.79 and a come-back-to earth game is forthcoming sooner rather that later. Adam Ottavino was called up to fill in for Kyle Lohse (compartment syndrome in forearm), who was placed on the DL Thursday and underwent surgery Friday. Ottavino could definitely implode because his minor league numbers are not great by any stretch. He does have very good stuff but last season he walked 82 batters and struck out 119 in 144 IP for the Memphis Redbirds of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. This year, however, he’s only walked 11 batters in 41 innings while striking out 37 so perhaps his command issues have been sorted out and that’s a chance worth taking because control has been the only thing holding Ottavino back. He has major league stuff but this one is more about taking back a tag against that career stiff, Carlos Silva. Play: St. Louis +1.22 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>CINCINNATI –1½ +1.23 over Houston http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Man, it’s tempting to play over 9 runs in this one but for that to happen the Reds might have to score 10 times because a big night at the plate for the Astros is six hits and one run. Forget about Aaron Harang, as he’s about as average as they come but this isn’t the Phillies he’s facing. The Astros could make Larry King look good so there’s no reason Harang can’t get through this line-up without much damage. The same cannot be said for Brian Moehler. Moehler makes his first start of the year after working out of the pen all season. He’s been consistently bad and consistently hittable throughout his career and he’s now 38 years old with over 1500 career IP. In 18 innings this season the league is hitting .310 off him. He’s struck out six batters all season so you know 100% for sure the Reds will make contact. Wandy Rodriguez got roughed up last night, forcing the Astros to liberally use the bullpen (to little or no avail). With no offense, with a reliever pulling starting duties and a weary bullpen, the odds are hugely against the Astros in this one. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Los Angeles +1.19 over COLORADO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Simply put, the Dodgers plus a tag are a must play against Aaron Cook (-4 BPV, 2-1-2-4-0 PQS). Cook is getting rocked almost every start and he’s also issuing way too many free passes. He’s already walked 25 batters in 51 frames so he needs to throw more strikes or he needs to be more fortunate. Unfortunately, his 66% strand rate is lower-than-normal and is further exposing his flaws. The Dodgers have been killing righties as of late and Cook is certainly no stranger to them, as he’s been around for a long time and has pitched 108 innings against the Dodgers in his career. Hiroki Kuroda (95 BPV, 4-1-5-3-5 PQS) has been getting it done this season with great command, a low .221 BAA on the road and a string of strong starts. Over his last three starts he’s walked three and struck out 16. The choice here is not a difficult one. We’re taking back a price on a guy who has great command and strikes out guys in a park that rewards pitchers with those attributes. This park does not reward pitchers like Cook, who can’t find the strike zone. Cook has started four games in May and has allowed 30 hits in 22.1 innings, not to mention nine walks. Cook has been whacked in San Diego, he’s been whacked at PNC Park in San Fran, he was crushed in KC and chances are he’ll get whacked again here. Play: Los Angeles +1.19 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>TORONTO –1½ +1.10 over Baltimore http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>There’s no reason in the world to stop playing against the O’s now. Baltimore was shutout last night 5-0 and its road record is now 6-20. This is a frustrated and very mentally drained team right now and it’s not getting better. Thursday night’s loss was demoralizing and last night the 3-4-5 hitters went 6-11 but the O’s were still shutout because the rest of the batter’s went 2-24. Now the Orioles will look to Chris Tillman to get them right-sided. Don’t think so. Tillman had his moments last season when he went 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA but he’s not ready for this leap yet. He allowed 15 jacks in 65 innings and that’s a huge problem here, as the Jays lead the majors in going yard. Also, the roof will be open in Toronto this afternoon and living here, I can tell you that balls fly out of this park in day games with the roof open. Brett Cecil is a quality pitcher that keeps the ball down and that’s significant for this one. He’s coming off a two-hit, seven inning gem in L.A. against the Angels and he’s not taking a step up in class. In fact, Cecil has faced the Orioles twice in his brief career and has dominated them to the tune of a 1.74 ERA. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Chicago +1.32 over TAMPA BAY http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Interesting match-up sees perhaps the league’s most overachieving team facing the league’s most underachieving squad. That’s not to suggest the Rays aren’t good because they most certainly are. However, they’re not going to continue to win seven out of every ten games because they’re not THAT good. Anyway, the South Side beat them last night and there’s a great chance for them to repeat that here. John Danks (85 BPV, 1-4-3-5-3 PQS) has had a terrific year thus far, compiling a 2.37 ERA through nine starts. The Twins scored three runs off of Danks on May 12th, but aside from that, he has held opponents to two runs or fewer in every start. Danks is pitching as good as ever and it’s also worth noting that RH batters are hitting just .196 against him. Wade Davis (2 BPV, 4-2-2-3-0 PQS) hasn’t had the same success as Danks this year and he can thank his poor control for that. That inefficiency, coupled with a 1.3 hr/9, has led to an ERA nearly twice as high as Danks, and is why he gets through 5.4 IP/start versus 6.7 for Danks. After taking two of three from the pathetic Astros, the Rays have just one win in five games. They’ve scored just six runs in those four losses and they don’t get a break facing Danks. Play: Chicago +1.32 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
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></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
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></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
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></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
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></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
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></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
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></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
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></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
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></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
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></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
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