Tampa Bay line dropping like a fly.

NyMets609 · May 31, 2010

whats up with this? getting kinda nervous. plus the fact that Garza has been prone to the long ball recently and the Jays lead the league in homers........

might be buying this one back.

lespanol · May 31, 2010

you play tb nymet.........i think is a good play..........why you buying this one back.

billhill999 · May 31, 2010

Going to Sports Options now to see if this is a steam play.

NyMets609 · May 31, 2010

find out anything bill?

letsgohoosiers · May 31, 2010

NyMets609 said:
might be buying this one back.

Might be the funniest thing I've read on these forums.

LockedampLoaded · May 31, 2010

LockedampLoaded · May 31, 2010

letsgohoosiers said:
Might be the funniest thing I've read on these forums.

:lolBIG:

LockedampLoaded · May 31, 2010

NyMets609 said:
whats up with this? getting kinda nervous. plus the fact that Garza has been prone to the long ball recently and the Jays lead the league in homers........

might be buying this one back.

Why would you put something in so early :think2:

NyMets609 · May 31, 2010

letsgohoosiers said:
Might be the funniest thing I've read on these forums.

huh? why?

NyMets609 · May 31, 2010

Locked & Loaded said:
Why would you put something in so early :think2:

why not? IMO the best times to hit a line is over night when they first come out.

letsgohoosiers · May 31, 2010

NyMets609 said:
huh? why?

Tell me how you buy back -135 when the other side is now +115.

NyMets609 · May 31, 2010

letsgohoosiers said:
Tell me how you buy back -135 when the other side is now +115.

depending on the bet size you are going to eat some cash...better than risking the original bet amount. in this case it's not so I'm letting it go.

LockedampLoaded · May 31, 2010

NyMets609 said:
why not? IMO the best times to hit a line is over night when they first come out.

How do you know the line will move or not?

NyMets609 · May 31, 2010

Locked & Loaded said:
How do you know the line will move or not?

thats a matter of preference. I rarely make bets based on line movement and If I'm going to make a bet that maybe is going to be a big public play than yeah maybe I'll wait and see.

LockedampLoaded · May 31, 2010

NyMets609 said:
thats a matter of preference. I rarely make bets based on line movement and If I'm going to make a bet that maybe is going to be a big public play than yeah maybe I'll wait and see.

GL tonite Mets :toast:

letsgohoosiers · May 31, 2010

NyMets609 said:
depending on the bet size you are going to eat some cash...better than risking the original bet amount. in this case it's not so I'm letting it go.

Having a massive -EV bet and "buying it back" with another -EV bet is.... well let me just say I bet books love you.

NyMets609 · May 31, 2010

letsgohoosiers said:
Having a massive -EV bet and "buying it back" with another -EV bet is.... well let me just say I bet books love you.

what are you talking about? get a life.

I put in Rays at -140 for 40$ to win 30$ if I bought it back +115 for 30$ it would pay 34$ and I'd lose a total of 6$ instead of risking my original bet amount and possibly losing.

letsgohoosiers · May 31, 2010

NyMets609 said:
I put in Rays at -140 for 40$ to win 30$ if I bought it back +115 for 30$ it would pay 34$ and I'd lose a total of 6$ instead of risking my original bet amount and possibly losing.

So your initial bet has a -6.68718% expected value and you plan on buying it back with a wager of -2.02983% expected value.

This is assuming a +119/-120 probability (Matchbook odds), your calculations are the same right? I mean, you've been gambling for years, surely you know how to calculate basic expected value?

goblue12 · May 31, 2010

List of books that have a better price than +115...

- Bet Phoenix +116
- BetEd +120
- Skybook +118
- Jazz / ABC Islands / Loose Lines +117
- Matchbook (not technically a book) +119
- Bodog +125
- BetOnline +122
- JustBet +116
- Legends +119
- Rebate Wager +116
- Guardian +116

NyMets609 · May 31, 2010

letsgohoosiers said:
So your initial bet has a -6.68718% expected value and you plan on buying it back with a wager of -2.02983% expected value.

This is assuming a +119/-120 probability (Matchbook odds), your calculations are the same right? I mean, you've been gambling for years, surely you know how to calculate basic expected value?

I really could care less right now about "expected value" on a measly 30$ bet that if I were to buy back and the Rays lost I would be eating 6$. Frankly I don't see why you care so much either.

but like I said in this case it is really not a big deal to me so I am letting it go. I agreed with you already before that if this bet was a higher amount I would not be "buying back"