Wednesday (6/2) Bases

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Week: 5/31 - 6/5: 0-0 (+0)
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Wednesday June 2, 2010:

Philadelphia Phillies +115 (400/460)

Derek Lowe travelled to Philly on May 2nd just to get rocked (5 IP, 11 H, 7 ER), but since then has been very efficient producing 3 quality starts out of 4 tries. However, Kyle Kendrick has been very inconsistent, he either gives up 0 ER or gets waxed for 4 or 5 ER. He faced the Braves on April 20th and threw 8 shut out innings of 4 hit ball. Just looking at the value in this game points me to Philly because you are getting a great offensive team at plus money due to their recent slump. Everything comes around in full swing, a vicious circle if you will, and what goes up, must come down. The Braves, in my honest opinion, are playing over their heads, and the Phils are under achieving right now. I mean c'mon, nearly every position on the all-star ballot is leading with Phils and they are playing terrible ball. I think it's time they bust out of their slump because you will not be seeing the Phils at plus money versus a mediocre pitcher (Lowe is 7-4 with a 4.9 ERA) for much longer. I think the Phils hit their turning point with Utley's lead-off doulbe in the 6th inning yesterday. From the 6th inning on yesterday they tallied 7 hits and 3 runs; they were one swing of the bat away from tieing the game in the 9th. Even Werth busted his 0-21 stretch with 2 doubles. It takes a few hits, a homer, and all of a sudden hitting was contagious again for the Phils. In no way do I feel the Phils are going to get 16 hits and 12 runs today or anything ridiculous, but I feel that Utley double was the beginning of a nice Philly run to regain a 3 or 4 game lead in the NL East. Overall, I'd say that you are getting an extremely large amount of value in the Phils at plus money versus a sub-5 ERA pitcher. I don't care who they have on the mound (especially Kendrick who has shown the ability to pitch great games, who has thrown shut out ball in 3 of his starts this season). You are getting the so called number 1 offense in the league at plus money versus a sub-5 ERA pitcher in a game that they need badly to regroup and gain control of the NL East. You would be a fool to lay 35 cents of vig as there is little value in an overachieving team. No lock by any means, but betting bases is a game of picking spots of value and this is one that I see.

Best of luck.

:dancefool
 

TRYING TO GET THE EDGE
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GL MY FRIEND AND WELCOME TO THERX...I ALSO HAVE THE PHIL AT +128 AT 5Dimes Lets Cash The Early One....
 

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Wednesday June 2, 2010:

Philadelphia Phillies +115 (400/460) (Posted above)

Arizona Diamondbacks +115 (400/460)

Carlos Monasterios just recently began starting games for the Dodgers, in fact only one so far and in that game he went 5 IP and gave up 5 hits and 4 runs; far from an impressive debut in my eyes. On the other side we have Edwin Jackson who has been off this year. We all know that he has the potential having a 3.6 ERA last year and 4.4 ERA two years ago collecting nearly 30 wins. That's neither here nor there, however, because he is an ERA over 6 this year. You would think moving from the AL to the NL his ERA would shrink this season, but nonetheless it hasn't and he's on a very poor offensive team. I'll give him credit though, outside of his 10 ER at Colorado and 8 ER at Chicago he has been fairly consistent and posted some monster numbers (on the road at Florida striking out 12 going 8 strong of 4 hit shutout ball). What better way to get in a groove to go against a struggling Dodger offense (put up 5+ runs once in the last 2 weeks) and to go against a relatively new starting pitcher. I'm sorry, but you won't be finding me laying 35 cents worth of vig on a guy who hasn't proven anything to me yet (Monsterios was nice from the pen as a middle reliever and poor in his first start). Just like when Strasburg gets the call up against the Pirates on June 8th... you know for a fact that he will be laying -150+ and that's way to much vig for a guy with no proven MLB status. I'll fade the Dodgers here after the emotional walk-off with their 5th starter on the mound versus a teams #2 starter. But hey, I guess the price is fair considering the Dbacks are on a 8 game losing streak. Just like I mentioned with the Phillies, they are struggling now so you are getting more bang for your buck... this is just the case here. The Dbacks are struggling so you are getting them plus money versus a guy with 1 mediocre major league start.

Best of luck.

:dancefool
 

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Week: 5/31 - 6/5: 0-1 (-400)
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Wednesday June 2, 2010:

Philadelphia Phillies +115 (400/460) (LOSER) --- Welp, we got the pitching we wanted. Gave up 1 run in the 1st and shut them down for the rest of the game until Jose Contreras came in. But Utley was a killer, the dude went 0-4 and grounded into a DP with the bases loaded and 1 out earlier in the game. Oh well, considering the way Kendrick has been dominated versus the Braves this year and the stuggles of the Phillies' bats the under was probably the best choice here. I guess that's why hindsight is always 20/20. Hoping to get the day split with the D-backs and come out a bit ahead.

Arizona Diamondbacks +115 (400/460) (PENDING)

Best of luck.

:dancefool
 

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Week: 5/31 - 6/5: 0-1 (-400)
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Wednesday June 2, 2010:

Philadelphia Phillies +115 (400/460) (LOSER)

Arizona Diamondbacks +115 (400/460) (PENDING)

New York Mets -115 (460/400)

Johan has been absolutely lights out in his last few outings (1-0 29.2 IP, 1.08 ERA in last 4 starts and going minimum 7 IP). The Mets have also been playing some nice ball lately winning 7 of their last 10 and making a push at the NL East. They are currently sitting only 2 games back of Philly (who lost today). They have a tough battle with the Marlins (currently tied with the NYM for 3rd in NL East) right around the corner so taking a loss with their ace on the mound could tumble them all the to 4th in the division after their series with Florida. The Padres and their entire pitching staff (including Richard) is completely overachieving in my eyes. No way will all of their starters will have a sub-3 ERA or lower at year's end which is where they are sitting now. Maybe Richard is coming back to life after giving up 4 ER in his last start, maybe is was just a bad start, no one knows and thats why it's considered "gambling". I can tell you right now though that they will not finish with a .600 winning percentage (which is where they are at now) when the dust settles in October. So for the time being, Vegas will be over valuing them like they are today. When have you ever seen Johan at a near pick'em versus the Padres? Never. You rarely see him at a pick'em unless he's going against the Phillies and Halladay or CC and the Yanks or Josh Johnson and the Marlins; not Richard and the Padres. Tremendous value in the Mets today so that's what I'll be taking.

Best of luck.

:dancefool
 

New member
Joined
Jun 2, 2010
Messages
131
Tokens
Week: 5/31 - 6/5: 0-1 (-400)
Total: 0-1 (-400)

Wednesday June 2, 2010:

Philadelphia Phillies +115 (400/460) (LOSER - IN RECORD)

Arizona Diamondbacks +115 (400/460) (PENDING)

New York Mets -115 (460/400) (POSTED ABOVE)

Toronto Blue Jays -110 (660/600)

Pittsburgh Pirates +110 (400/440)

Milwaukee Brewers -120 (720/600)

Best of luck.

:dancefool
 

New member
Joined
Jun 2, 2010
Messages
131
Tokens
Week: 5/31 - 6/5: 0-1 (-400)
Total: 0-1 (-400)

Wednesday June 2, 2010:

Philadelphia Phillies +115 (400/460) (LOSER - IN RECORD)

Arizona Diamondbacks +115 (400/460) (PENDING)

New York Mets -115 (460/400) (POSTED ABOVE)

Toronto Blue Jays -110 (660/600) (POSTED ABOVE)

Pittsburgh Pirates +110 (400/440) (POSTED ABOVE)

Milwaukee Brewers -120 (720/600) (POSTED ABOVE)

Houston Astros -110 (880/800)

Kansas City Royals -110 (440/400)

Best of luck.

:dancefool
 

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