Might be the biggest sucker bet I've seen all season

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letsgohoosiers

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Talking about Philadelphia -1.5.

Fade this. I've never seen every single square put out a +EV number like this.
 

letsgohoosiers

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Illini said:
+EV would imply that it's a good bet.
Click to expand...
Yes it would.

SIA, Bodog, BetOnline, Sportsbetting, all had -110 on the Padres.

Not to mention Stations, Stratosphere, Peppermill in Vegas.

All while Pinnacle throws out -122/+113. Big mistake.

Usually it's just one book, but every idiot book put out -110.
 

olim

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they are going to give us a heart attack...arent they
 

olim

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:103631605

another day at the office

damn that over
 
Illini

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letsgohoosiers said:
Yes it would.

SIA, Bodog, BetOnline, Sportsbetting, all had -110 on the Padres.

Not to mention Stations, Stratosphere, Peppermill in Vegas.

All while Pinnacle throws out -122/+113. Big mistake.

Usually it's just one book, but every idiot book put out -110.
Click to expand...

Do you play a lot of +1.5 RL's? It would make sense that the books that book strictly square players would have some good lines on the +1.5's. I've just never really looked for opportunities like this. 90% of my plays are on the ML. I'm going to have to put some effort into this.
 

letsgohoosiers

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Illini said:
Do you play a lot of +1.5 RL's? It would make sense that the books that book strictly square players would have some good lines on the +1.5's. I've just never really looked for opportunities like this. 90% of my plays are on the ML. I'm going to have to put some effort into this.
Click to expand...
90% of my plays are on the big underdog on the +1.5. That's where all the value is.

The square thought is "Well, they're probably going to win... and it will most likely be by more than one... and I get it for so much cheaper."

This yields significant +EV wagers on the other side. It's even better when the number moves against them (see Cleveland-Chicago).
 
Illini

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I will say that's it's gonna take some balls to consistently lay -130 and above on underdogs, no matter how +EV the RL bets are. But I guess the books are in the same position consistently.
 

olim

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Illini said:
Do you play a lot of +1.5 RL's? It would make sense that the books that book strictly square players would have some good lines on the +1.5's. I've just never really looked for opportunities like this. 90% of my plays are on the ML. I'm going to have to put some effort into this.
Click to expand...

thats why they dont care what those numbers are because their players aren't looking that way....
 
Illini

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letsgohoosiers said:
90% of my plays are on the big underdog on the +1.5. That's where all the value is.

The square thought is "Well, they're probably going to win... and it will most likely be by more than one... and I get it for so much cheaper."

This yields significant +EV wagers on the other side. It's even better when the number moves against them (see Cleveland-Chicago).
Click to expand...

I do remember Simon from Pinnacle saying 4-5 years back that if you played the dog on the RL in all the -200 and above games, you would come out ahead betting them blindly over the course of the year, provided you got the best number.
 
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