Rec: 2-0
Well, summer has found OK pretty damn quick, we'll be near the century mark today making my cement pond all that more enticing.
Lots of "good looking" pups today so it would be wise to approach the card with a very sharp pencil. He who relies solely on starting pitcher ERA is doomed for disaster. I keep a copy of an article written by Sean Murphy back in 2007 regarding what he refers to as the "5 Golden Rule of Betting Bases." I like to call them the cardinal rules, same difference. There's one section in there that I have adhered to when choosing sides (doesn't help a whole lot for total plays) and goes kinda like this: pay close attention to not only the starting pitcher's ERA's, but also BP, how each team has batted against the applicable lefty or righty last 10 and starting pitcher's K/BB ratios. While I subscribe to the "what have you done for me lately" theory of sports gambling, I look at history and we have a whole bunch with this play. I could give you the supporting numbers for each aforementioned category, but suffice it to say that in evey instance, the BoSox are damn near a quantum leap above Baltimore. The only close call would be today's BP's, but given Lester's record against the birds, it's easy to accept that. While I may be stating the obvious to many here in taking Boston, bear in mind that I don't lay that kind of wood (see yesterday's post) and find tremendous value in taking them on the RL. GLTA
Boston RL - -125
~T~
Well, summer has found OK pretty damn quick, we'll be near the century mark today making my cement pond all that more enticing.
Lots of "good looking" pups today so it would be wise to approach the card with a very sharp pencil. He who relies solely on starting pitcher ERA is doomed for disaster. I keep a copy of an article written by Sean Murphy back in 2007 regarding what he refers to as the "5 Golden Rule of Betting Bases." I like to call them the cardinal rules, same difference. There's one section in there that I have adhered to when choosing sides (doesn't help a whole lot for total plays) and goes kinda like this: pay close attention to not only the starting pitcher's ERA's, but also BP, how each team has batted against the applicable lefty or righty last 10 and starting pitcher's K/BB ratios. While I subscribe to the "what have you done for me lately" theory of sports gambling, I look at history and we have a whole bunch with this play. I could give you the supporting numbers for each aforementioned category, but suffice it to say that in evey instance, the BoSox are damn near a quantum leap above Baltimore. The only close call would be today's BP's, but given Lester's record against the birds, it's easy to accept that. While I may be stating the obvious to many here in taking Boston, bear in mind that I don't lay that kind of wood (see yesterday's post) and find tremendous value in taking them on the RL. GLTA
Boston RL - -125
~T~
