All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.46 over San Diego
<o><o> It’s incredible that the Phillies are in a stretch in which they’ve scored three runs or less in 12 straight games. That all ends here against Jon Garland and his run of 6-0 and a 1.58 ERA over his last nine starts is even more incredible (seven of those nine starts were in San Diego). These two abnormalities will collide and the chances of the Phillies snapping out of it are much greater than the chances of Garland throwing another gem. Garland continues to defy the odds and like a blackjack player that keeps winning, it simply cannot last. You can’t overcome the house edge over and extended period of time and Garland’s time is up. He’s benefitted from pitching at Petco Park and he’s benefited from an unsustainable 86% strand rate, which has continued to depress his ERA despite an ugly BB/K ratio that sits at 30/42. Garland is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA in four starts against the Phillies, going 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in two starts last year with Arizona and he’s not a better pitcher this season, he’s just been extremely fortunate. Jamie Moyer has gone six or more innings in nine of his ten starts this year. He’ll likely allow three or four runs but so what. Everything about this game defies reason in that Moyer is 48 years old, Garland is winning games, the Padres are in first and the Phillies aren’t scoring runs. Things get back to normal here. Play Philadelphia –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
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Colorado –1½ +1.36 over ARIZONA <o></o>
The Snakes snapped an ugly losing streak last night by scoring two runs in the ninth and with that came a big load off of its shoulders. However, Dontrelle Willis pitching at this park is a complete disaster waiting to happen and it probably will. Willis went 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance with the Tigers. He had one win last season and one win the year before. So, that’s two wins for the Tigers at a cost of 27 million. That’s a nice signing. They could’ve paid me one million and I would have three wins in three years. They would’ve saved 26 million and won one more game. Anyway, this season Willis had a 26% line-drive rate, which is one of the worst in baseball and line drives in this park means doubles and triples. They don’t get chased down like they do at Comerica. He had a 1.78 WHIP, he walked 29 batters in 43 IP while striking out 33 and the Rockies are not free swingers. In fact, Colorado has walked 206 times this season, which ranks them third in the NL and sixth overall out of 30 teams. Willis is going to have to throw strikes consistently and that’s something he’s not capable of doing. Jhoulys Chacin has a BAA on the road of 1.69. He’s faced the D-Backs twice this season and has against them his BAA is .160. Unlike Willis, he throws strikes and has 36 K’s in 37 IP with just 15 walks. The D-Backs are struggling badly at the plate, batting well south of the Mendoza Line over the last week or so. And lastly, the D-Backs pen is worse than it’s starter and if the Rocks don’t score eight or more here, it’ll come as a surprise. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
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Boston 1½ -1.21 over BALTIMORE <o></o>
Rarely will we recommend laying 1½ runs and juice but this one warrants it because the O’s literally have no shot here. This is equivalent to a 20,000 claimer running in today’s Belmont. Jon Lester is one of, if not the best lefty in the game. The O’s are 5-14 against southpaws. Lester (98 BPV, 4-5-5-4-4 PQS) is riding a seven-start streak of PQS Dominant performances, a streak that has seen him go 6-0 with a 55% groundball rate and he’s just warming up. June is the best month for Lester. In his career, his lowest ERA (2.56), lowest OPS (.633) and best record (9-1) is in the month of June. The O’s have scored eight runs over its last seven games and over that stretch have been outscored 45-8. Jeremy Guthrie walked three, struck out two, and allowed 19 fly balls and line drives versus just four grounders in his last start. He’s 1-5 in his career vs the Red Sox with a 4.72 ERA and now the Red Sox are seeing beach balls. Boston has scored six times or more in five straight games and overall they’ve scored 42 runs over that stretch while batting .366. The O’s are batting .181 over its last seven games. Can this one go any other way? Play: Boston –1½ -1.21 (Risking 2.42 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
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**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
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In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
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1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
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2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
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3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
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4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
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5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
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A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
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Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
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></o>PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.46 over San Diego
<o
><o> It’s incredible that the Phillies are in a stretch in which they’ve scored three runs or less in 12 straight games. That all ends here against Jon Garland and his run of 6-0 and a 1.58 ERA over his last nine starts is even more incredible (seven of those nine starts were in San Diego). These two abnormalities will collide and the chances of the Phillies snapping out of it are much greater than the chances of Garland throwing another gem. Garland continues to defy the odds and like a blackjack player that keeps winning, it simply cannot last. You can’t overcome the house edge over and extended period of time and Garland’s time is up. He’s benefitted from pitching at Petco Park and he’s benefited from an unsustainable 86% strand rate, which has continued to depress his ERA despite an ugly BB/K ratio that sits at 30/42. Garland is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA in four starts against the Phillies, going 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in two starts last year with Arizona and he’s not a better pitcher this season, he’s just been extremely fortunate. Jamie Moyer has gone six or more innings in nine of his ten starts this year. He’ll likely allow three or four runs but so what. Everything about this game defies reason in that Moyer is 48 years old, Garland is winning games, the Padres are in first and the Phillies aren’t scoring runs. Things get back to normal here. Play Philadelphia –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o>Colorado –1½ +1.36 over ARIZONA <o
></o>The Snakes snapped an ugly losing streak last night by scoring two runs in the ninth and with that came a big load off of its shoulders. However, Dontrelle Willis pitching at this park is a complete disaster waiting to happen and it probably will. Willis went 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance with the Tigers. He had one win last season and one win the year before. So, that’s two wins for the Tigers at a cost of 27 million. That’s a nice signing. They could’ve paid me one million and I would have three wins in three years. They would’ve saved 26 million and won one more game. Anyway, this season Willis had a 26% line-drive rate, which is one of the worst in baseball and line drives in this park means doubles and triples. They don’t get chased down like they do at Comerica. He had a 1.78 WHIP, he walked 29 batters in 43 IP while striking out 33 and the Rockies are not free swingers. In fact, Colorado has walked 206 times this season, which ranks them third in the NL and sixth overall out of 30 teams. Willis is going to have to throw strikes consistently and that’s something he’s not capable of doing. Jhoulys Chacin has a BAA on the road of 1.69. He’s faced the D-Backs twice this season and has against them his BAA is .160. Unlike Willis, he throws strikes and has 36 K’s in 37 IP with just 15 walks. The D-Backs are struggling badly at the plate, batting well south of the Mendoza Line over the last week or so. And lastly, the D-Backs pen is worse than it’s starter and if the Rocks don’t score eight or more here, it’ll come as a surprise. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Boston 1½ -1.21 over BALTIMORE <o
></o>Rarely will we recommend laying 1½ runs and juice but this one warrants it because the O’s literally have no shot here. This is equivalent to a 20,000 claimer running in today’s Belmont. Jon Lester is one of, if not the best lefty in the game. The O’s are 5-14 against southpaws. Lester (98 BPV, 4-5-5-4-4 PQS) is riding a seven-start streak of PQS Dominant performances, a streak that has seen him go 6-0 with a 55% groundball rate and he’s just warming up. June is the best month for Lester. In his career, his lowest ERA (2.56), lowest OPS (.633) and best record (9-1) is in the month of June. The O’s have scored eight runs over its last seven games and over that stretch have been outscored 45-8. Jeremy Guthrie walked three, struck out two, and allowed 19 fly balls and line drives versus just four grounders in his last start. He’s 1-5 in his career vs the Red Sox with a 4.72 ERA and now the Red Sox are seeing beach balls. Boston has scored six times or more in five straight games and overall they’ve scored 42 runs over that stretch while batting .366. The O’s are batting .181 over its last seven games. Can this one go any other way? Play: Boston –1½ -1.21 (Risking 2.42 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o
></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o
></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o
></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
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