There have been 52 games this year where a run line dog is plus money. In other words, 52 times this year there has been a team catching +1.5 at +100 or better.
Of those 52 games, the dog has won outright 19 times. But that hasn't happened in the last 12 times that a team is +1.5 and + money. So, since May 18 — that's 19 days — there has been exactly zero teams +1.5 and + money to win outright.
Here are the last 10 +1.5 + money dogs:
Astros +1.5 (+100)
D-Backs +1.5 (+110)
Indians +1.5 (+120)
Royals +1.5 (+120)
Indians +1.5 (+110)
Orioles +1.5 (+105)
Brewers +1.5 (+105)
Orioles +1.5 (+125)
Orioles +1.5 (+100)
Orioles +1.5 (+110)
All of these teams but one — the Brewers, who were at Florida on June 3 — lost by two or more runs. That's a pretty incredible skid.
But overall, taking teams +1.5 at + money has been profitable, though not by much. A $100 bettor (risk $100 on each play) would be up $190 on the season if they took every team that was +1.5 and + money.
If you eliminate all games involving the Yankees or Orioles, you would be up $870.
If you eliminate all road teams that are +1.5 and + money and only take home teams that are +1.5 and + money, you would be up $550. There have been 17 such games this season, and the underdog has won outright in seven of those games.
So, how often did the 1.5 runs help? Well, if you eliminate the 19 games where the dog won outright, that leaves you with 33 games. Of those 33, the dog lost by just one run ONLY seven times. Four times, the home +1.5 dog lost by one run, while three times the road +1.5 dog lost by one run. So out of 52 games, the +1.5 runs came into play just 13% of the time.
The question, then, is worth asking: Is it worth taking +1.5 dogs at + money, or are you better off just taking the +180 or +200 or whatever?
Of those 52 games, the dog has won outright 19 times. But that hasn't happened in the last 12 times that a team is +1.5 and + money. So, since May 18 — that's 19 days — there has been exactly zero teams +1.5 and + money to win outright.
Here are the last 10 +1.5 + money dogs:
Astros +1.5 (+100)
D-Backs +1.5 (+110)
Indians +1.5 (+120)
Royals +1.5 (+120)
Indians +1.5 (+110)
Orioles +1.5 (+105)
Brewers +1.5 (+105)
Orioles +1.5 (+125)
Orioles +1.5 (+100)
Orioles +1.5 (+110)
All of these teams but one — the Brewers, who were at Florida on June 3 — lost by two or more runs. That's a pretty incredible skid.
But overall, taking teams +1.5 at + money has been profitable, though not by much. A $100 bettor (risk $100 on each play) would be up $190 on the season if they took every team that was +1.5 and + money.
If you eliminate all games involving the Yankees or Orioles, you would be up $870.
If you eliminate all road teams that are +1.5 and + money and only take home teams that are +1.5 and + money, you would be up $550. There have been 17 such games this season, and the underdog has won outright in seven of those games.
So, how often did the 1.5 runs help? Well, if you eliminate the 19 games where the dog won outright, that leaves you with 33 games. Of those 33, the dog lost by just one run ONLY seven times. Four times, the home +1.5 dog lost by one run, while three times the road +1.5 dog lost by one run. So out of 52 games, the +1.5 runs came into play just 13% of the time.
The question, then, is worth asking: Is it worth taking +1.5 dogs at + money, or are you better off just taking the +180 or +200 or whatever?
