CINCINNATI –1½ +1.65 over San Francisco http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
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The Giants are warm but they’ve also beaten up on the Pirates and D-Backs to get them warm and they’re going to have to start beating some good teams to prove anything. In fact, of San Fran’s 25 wins, 19 of them have come against teams under .500 and that includes six wins over the Astros and four wins over the Pirates. They were also swept recently by both the A’s and by the D-Backs in the desert. So, with a 30-25 record and not a very good team the Giants are quite often overvalued and with a very ordinary Barry Zito going, they’re worth wagering against. Zito is having a strong year but his numbers will even out at some point and just like the team, he, too has faced some weak opposition. Zito has faced the Astros twice, the Pirates twice, the Dodgers in L.A., the Cardinals in San Fran and San Diego. So, yeah, he has good numbers and has benefitted large from pitching both at SBC Park and against some feeble line-ups. Zito has really not had a difficult assignment all year but does now. The Reds are 8-3 at home against southpaws and they’re 9-2 over its last 11 home games. Cinci is also first in the NL in runs scored homers and team batting average. The Giants have never seen Johnny Cueto and that has to work in his favor. Cueto has wicked stuff and by the time the Giants figure him out, that’s if they figure him out, they might be down by six runs. Anyway, the Giants are not impressive at all so don’t be fooled by its 30-25 record. Against good teams they’ll be exposed as imposters and it starts right here. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.65 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Atlanta +1.17 over ARIZONA http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>
The Snakes are favored here on Dan Harens’ reputation and while Haren is coming off a gem, that gem came in Los Angeles where many struggling or very average pitchers could look very good. That’s not to say Haren is a stiff because he can pitch well but he’s lost some of what he’s had in the past and his numbers at home tell a story indeed. In fact, this year at Chase Field he’s been tagged for a 9 jacks in just 34 IP. He’s also allowed 40 hits over that stretch and overall he’s allowed 93 hits and 16 bombs in 83 IP. Haren is also coming off a 126-pitch performance and the last time he faced the Braves back on May 16, he was ripped apart for eight hits and seven runs in four innings. In addition, the Braves have led the NL in scoring since May 1. By contrast, the Diamondbacks have averaged 2½ runs over their last 12 games, thanks in part to slumps from Kelly Johnson and Mark Reynolds. Derek Lowe is the type of pitcher that can have a big game at this park because he keeps the ball down and if his slider is on, he’s tough as shoe leather. Lowe has kept his GB% near 60% since the beginning of May and that’s one of the best marks in the majors over the last five weeks. The Braves remain one of the hottest teams in the majors with 25 wins over its last 34 games. Give zero edge to the home team in this one. Play: Atlanta +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
></o>The Giants are warm but they’ve also beaten up on the Pirates and D-Backs to get them warm and they’re going to have to start beating some good teams to prove anything. In fact, of San Fran’s 25 wins, 19 of them have come against teams under .500 and that includes six wins over the Astros and four wins over the Pirates. They were also swept recently by both the A’s and by the D-Backs in the desert. So, with a 30-25 record and not a very good team the Giants are quite often overvalued and with a very ordinary Barry Zito going, they’re worth wagering against. Zito is having a strong year but his numbers will even out at some point and just like the team, he, too has faced some weak opposition. Zito has faced the Astros twice, the Pirates twice, the Dodgers in L.A., the Cardinals in San Fran and San Diego. So, yeah, he has good numbers and has benefitted large from pitching both at SBC Park and against some feeble line-ups. Zito has really not had a difficult assignment all year but does now. The Reds are 8-3 at home against southpaws and they’re 9-2 over its last 11 home games. Cinci is also first in the NL in runs scored homers and team batting average. The Giants have never seen Johnny Cueto and that has to work in his favor. Cueto has wicked stuff and by the time the Giants figure him out, that’s if they figure him out, they might be down by six runs. Anyway, the Giants are not impressive at all so don’t be fooled by its 30-25 record. Against good teams they’ll be exposed as imposters and it starts right here. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.65 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Atlanta +1.17 over ARIZONA http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Snakes are favored here on Dan Harens’ reputation and while Haren is coming off a gem, that gem came in Los Angeles where many struggling or very average pitchers could look very good. That’s not to say Haren is a stiff because he can pitch well but he’s lost some of what he’s had in the past and his numbers at home tell a story indeed. In fact, this year at Chase Field he’s been tagged for a 9 jacks in just 34 IP. He’s also allowed 40 hits over that stretch and overall he’s allowed 93 hits and 16 bombs in 83 IP. Haren is also coming off a 126-pitch performance and the last time he faced the Braves back on May 16, he was ripped apart for eight hits and seven runs in four innings. In addition, the Braves have led the NL in scoring since May 1. By contrast, the Diamondbacks have averaged 2½ runs over their last 12 games, thanks in part to slumps from Kelly Johnson and Mark Reynolds. Derek Lowe is the type of pitcher that can have a big game at this park because he keeps the ball down and if his slider is on, he’s tough as shoe leather. Lowe has kept his GB% near 60% since the beginning of May and that’s one of the best marks in the majors over the last five weeks. The Braves remain one of the hottest teams in the majors with 25 wins over its last 34 games. Give zero edge to the home team in this one. Play: Atlanta +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
