All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
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></o>Kansas City +1.27 over MINNESOTA http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Zack Greinke is considered to be having a bad year and a 1-7 record is proof but c’mon now, Greinke has an ERA of 3.60, he’s walked 17 batters in 60 innings and on the road he’s 0-4 but has an ERA of 2.47. It’s an absolute travesty that Greinke is 1-7 with the way that he has pitched and the fact that he’s this big a pooch against Kevin Slowey is also ridiculous. Slowey is coming off a gem against the Mariners. Big deal. In five prior May starts he allowed 35 hits in 27 frames and had a BAA of .304 to go along with an ERA of 4.55. His numbers in April were about the same. Slowey also has an unsustainable 79.7% strand rate this season to go along with a GB% of just 29% and those two numbers suggest that Slowey has been the luckiest pitcher in baseball and it might not be close. Slowey is so overvalued here it’s not funny and given the opportunity this wager should be made 100% of the time. Oh, BTW, the Royals saw Slowey earlier in the year and scored four times in 5 innings and he was lucky that day too, as he allowed eight hits, walked two, hit a batter and pitched every inning with two or three men on base. If Greinke had the exact same numbers and was 7-1 instead of 1-7 the Royals would be about –1.40 chalk here and frankly, that’s probably what they should be. Play: Kansas City +1.27 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>CHICAGO –1½ +1.74 over Detroit http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Didn’t Armando Gallaraga just come off a perfect game that wasn’t? Wasn’t this one of the most documented pitching performances in the history of the game? Damn, the guy was perfect. Aren’t the White Sox losing way more games than they’re winning these days? Now with all this the Tigers are taking back a small tag? Are you kidding? When you look at all this it looks like the Tigers are an automatic play and that’s exactly what the books are hoping for. This is a classic fade because the books put up such an enticing number on the Tigers and had they made this game a pick-em or even the Tigers –1.15 or –1.20 they would likely not have swayed a single bet. Laying –1.13 in this game is an option too but we’ll go big and lay the 1½-runs. There’s no sense in breaking down the match-up because it’s not important. This one is all about fading Gallaraga and taking the side the books don’t want us to. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.74 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Florida +1.29 over PHILADELPHIA http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>A slump is a few games, even seven, eight or nine games but this has turned into more than a slump, as the Phillies have scored a ridiculous 29 runs in the past 15 games. That’s 10 less than the Orioles in the same number of games. Over that stretch the Phillies are hitting .208, they’ve struck out 109 times and they have four jacks. Kyle Kendrick is rarely going to have a solid outing. He’s rarely going to strike out anyone and you can double that when he pitches at home. His 5.81 ERA at Citizens Bank Park is a true indicator of what he’s capable of. Meanwhile, Chris Volstad has been a model of consistency for much of the season. He owns a 52% ground ball rate and only once has he allowed more than 4 earned runs in a start. The Marlins may not win here but its chances of doing so are better than the Phillies and when you throw in a tag, they’re a must play. Play: Florida +1.29 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>COLORADO –1½ +1.09 over Houston http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
Brian Moehler at this park has about as much chance of success as North Korea does of winning the World Cup. Moehler is perhaps the biggest stiff in the game with a BAA of .343, an ERA of 6.49, a WHIP of 1.71 and 9 K’s against 8 walks. Recently, he failed to get a single out against the Rays and was pulled after facing just four batters. He followed that up with a start in Cincinnati in which he lasted 2.2 innings and allowed 10 hits and 8 runs. His BAA on the road is .363 and frankly, there’s not much more to say. Moehler has a job because the Astros have nobody else to turn to and as soon as they do, Moehler will be watching from the rail and may not get into another game in his career. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.09 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Toronto +1.83 over TAMPA BAYhttp://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The price alone makes the Blue Jays worthy of a wager despite the fact that Brian Tallet will make only his second start since coming back from injury. Thing is, he looked like a completely different pitcher upon his return. He looked very comfortable and he looked confident. He was throwing hard, he kept the ball down and he had these same hitters off balance into the sixth inning when he was pulled. The Rays won that game 7-6 but Tallet did not allow a single run and gave up just four hits in six innings. Jeff Niemann owns an ERA that's a run and a half below his xERA. He's outperformed his skills with the help of an 80% strand rate so far, but allowed 5 earned runs and 9 hits vs. Toronto in his last outing. This game is really a toss-up and it’s worth noting that despite a good record against lefties (17-7), the Rays are hitting just .224 against them and a correction in its record vs southpaws is forthcoming. Jays offer up more great value just like they have all year. Play: Toronto +1.83 (Risking 2 units). <o
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