Houston +1.31 over COLORADO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
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Note the 3:00 PM EST start. The Astros continue to play well while the same cannot be said for the Rockies. Colorado has been laboring badly all month and it’s all because of an offense that’s not producing. Todd Helton’s career is winding down and his presence in the line-up has been a huge liability. Helton was given the night off yesterday but he has three hits in his last 10 games and he has one jack and 11 RBI’s on the year and he’s not alone. The Rocks have scored 32 times over its last 10 games and they keep losing. This afternoon they’ll face Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is coming off two rough outings but so what. He has a BPV of 106, (see the bottom of page for explanation of BPV and PQS) he’s a quality pitcher with wicked stuff and his ERA on the road this year is 0.82. Jhoulys Chacin isn't the most efficient pitcher. Over the last four games, he has averaged 99.5 pitches per game and has completed the sixth inning just once. Chacin also has an unsettling home ERA of 6.23 and once again the Rocks have absolutely no advantage here. The Astros are a lot better than they’re getting credit for due to a disastrous start. That has created great value on them and this one is no exception. Play: Houston +1.31 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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CINCINNATI –1½ +1.16 over San Francisco http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>
Note the 12:35 PM EST start. There’s a million and one reasons to steer clear of Todd Wellemeyer (-19 BPV,4-2-4-5-0 PQS). It begins with a 51% flyball rate and at this park that’s big time trouble. Wellemeyer has been horrible on the road with a 10.62 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, and 20 BB in 20 innings. The Giants had a brutal game yesterday against Aaron Harang and previously Harang couldn’t get anyone out. Now they’ll face Mike Leake. Leake has been posting excellent starts in the last 31 days. The 1.60 ERA in that stretch can be attributed to the 89% strand rate but the Giants offense is unreliable and that strand rate could hold up for another game for sure. The best thing about this rookie is that he throws strikes and is almost always ahead in the count. One has to figure the Reds to score plenty here and that makes them very worthy of laying the runs. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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MINNESOTA –1½ +1.06 over Kansas City http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>
The Royals can’t wait to get as far away as possible from Target Field, as they’ve lost the first two games of this series by a combined score of 13-5. That was with Zack Greinke and Kyle Davies going, arguably the Royals top two guys. Now KC will send out Bruce Chen and his sweet looking 2.95 ERA and 2-0 record. That’s an illusion that will be corrected very soon. Chen has worked just 18 innings and has started just two games. He has 13 walks in those 18 frames and when you combine that with a 45% fly ball rate and no home runs to date, you can almost be sure that something is going to give real soon. The Twins are 7-1 at home against lefties and Chen is not a good one. He’s been lucky indeed and that’s all there is to it. Scott Baker, like all the Twins pitchers, has been terrific at home with a 4-1 record, a BAA of .259 and an ERA of 3.49. Baker also throws strikes, as his 17 walks and 56 K’s in 73 frames will attest to. In 39 home innings, Baker has issued seven walks. The Royals have dropped five of seven and they’re playing this series like they know they’re going to lose. Ignore Chen’s numbers. He gets exposed here for who he really is. Play: Minnesota –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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BALTIMORE +2.25 over NY Yankees (1<sup>st</sup> 5 innings) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>
The Orioles will turn to a great looking rookie prospect and the kid may fall flat on his face but he might also come up big. If he does well he’ll likely go five or six frames and we’re not leaving anything up to the O’s pen. Jake Arrieta was drafted by Baltimore in the fifth round of the 2007 draft. He was rated the Orioles’ fourth-best prospect before the 2010 season by Baseball America. Arrieta went 6-2 with a 1.85 ERA in 12 appearances with Triple-A Norfolk this season. Batters are hitting only .189 against him, and he has 64 strikeouts and 34 walks in 73 innings. The Yanks resume interleague play tomorrow against the Astros and while playing the Astros is nothing special, interleague play is and the Yanks really don’t need this game at all. They’re destroying the Orioles and may feel that all they have to do is show up here. A.J. Burnett is very often hit and miss and after dominating the O’s twice this year already the O’s might be ready for him. The price is great, the situation is good and perhaps the O’s can do a little early damage and take a lead going into the sixth. Play: Baltimore +2.25 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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TEXAS –1½ +1.01 over Seattle http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>
The Mariners have lost five of six and the scores in those five losses were 12-2, 7-1, 9-4, 11-1 and 7-1. That’s 46-8 and things sure as hell don’t figure to get better here. Ryan Rowland-Smith (-25 BPV,2-0-0-0-3 PQS) returned from a stint in the bullpen on June 5 vs. LAA, allowing one earned run and recording a PQS-3. Usually a 20/20 ratio is something to brag about, but we’re talking about his K/BB ratio, not his eyesight. Extreme gopheritis (2.0 HR/9) is torching the ERA (6.65) and a trip to Rangers Ballpark has to be an uncomfortable thought for him. Smith is a stiff with an ERA on the road of 8.72 and he, like the whole staff and team is shell-shocked at the moment. Tommy Hunter (109 BPV,4 PQS) makes his second start. In his first start, he induced 17 ground balls, striking out four and walking none. That’s nice but we’re not relying on Hunter. We’re relying on both an inefficient Mariners offense and a pitcher that has one foot in the grave. Play: Texas –1½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Toronto +1.28 over TAMPA BAY http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o></o>
Brett Cecil (93 BPV,0-3-3-5-4 PQS) has won four straight starts, allowing five earned runs and walking just four in those outings. Low hit rate (26%) offsets strand rate (67%), negating any luck factors. Cecil is controlling games with a lack of walks, a low line drive rate (15%), and minimal HRs (0.6 HR/9). He has been impressive on the road this year, limiting batters to a .187 batting average in 33.2 innings. Wade Davis (9 BPV,2-3-0-2-0 PQS) has a nearly synchronized ERA (5.03) to xERA (5.08). Too many walks has been a negative and so has homeruns allowed (1.7 HR/9) including four HRs in the past two starts. Davis is the same at home (5.03 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .269 BA) as he is on the road (5.04 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .274 BA) and these Jays have been feasting off of pitchers like Davis all year. Play: Toronto +1.28 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o></o>
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o></o>
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o></o>
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
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2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
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3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
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4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
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5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o></o>
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o></o>
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
></o>Note the 3:00 PM EST start. The Astros continue to play well while the same cannot be said for the Rockies. Colorado has been laboring badly all month and it’s all because of an offense that’s not producing. Todd Helton’s career is winding down and his presence in the line-up has been a huge liability. Helton was given the night off yesterday but he has three hits in his last 10 games and he has one jack and 11 RBI’s on the year and he’s not alone. The Rocks have scored 32 times over its last 10 games and they keep losing. This afternoon they’ll face Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is coming off two rough outings but so what. He has a BPV of 106, (see the bottom of page for explanation of BPV and PQS) he’s a quality pitcher with wicked stuff and his ERA on the road this year is 0.82. Jhoulys Chacin isn't the most efficient pitcher. Over the last four games, he has averaged 99.5 pitches per game and has completed the sixth inning just once. Chacin also has an unsettling home ERA of 6.23 and once again the Rocks have absolutely no advantage here. The Astros are a lot better than they’re getting credit for due to a disastrous start. That has created great value on them and this one is no exception. Play: Houston +1.31 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>CINCINNATI –1½ +1.16 over San Francisco http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Note the 12:35 PM EST start. There’s a million and one reasons to steer clear of Todd Wellemeyer (-19 BPV,4-2-4-5-0 PQS). It begins with a 51% flyball rate and at this park that’s big time trouble. Wellemeyer has been horrible on the road with a 10.62 ERA, 2.21 WHIP, and 20 BB in 20 innings. The Giants had a brutal game yesterday against Aaron Harang and previously Harang couldn’t get anyone out. Now they’ll face Mike Leake. Leake has been posting excellent starts in the last 31 days. The 1.60 ERA in that stretch can be attributed to the 89% strand rate but the Giants offense is unreliable and that strand rate could hold up for another game for sure. The best thing about this rookie is that he throws strikes and is almost always ahead in the count. One has to figure the Reds to score plenty here and that makes them very worthy of laying the runs. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>MINNESOTA –1½ +1.06 over Kansas City http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Royals can’t wait to get as far away as possible from Target Field, as they’ve lost the first two games of this series by a combined score of 13-5. That was with Zack Greinke and Kyle Davies going, arguably the Royals top two guys. Now KC will send out Bruce Chen and his sweet looking 2.95 ERA and 2-0 record. That’s an illusion that will be corrected very soon. Chen has worked just 18 innings and has started just two games. He has 13 walks in those 18 frames and when you combine that with a 45% fly ball rate and no home runs to date, you can almost be sure that something is going to give real soon. The Twins are 7-1 at home against lefties and Chen is not a good one. He’s been lucky indeed and that’s all there is to it. Scott Baker, like all the Twins pitchers, has been terrific at home with a 4-1 record, a BAA of .259 and an ERA of 3.49. Baker also throws strikes, as his 17 walks and 56 K’s in 73 frames will attest to. In 39 home innings, Baker has issued seven walks. The Royals have dropped five of seven and they’re playing this series like they know they’re going to lose. Ignore Chen’s numbers. He gets exposed here for who he really is. Play: Minnesota –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>BALTIMORE +2.25 over NY Yankees (1<sup>st</sup> 5 innings) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Orioles will turn to a great looking rookie prospect and the kid may fall flat on his face but he might also come up big. If he does well he’ll likely go five or six frames and we’re not leaving anything up to the O’s pen. Jake Arrieta was drafted by Baltimore in the fifth round of the 2007 draft. He was rated the Orioles’ fourth-best prospect before the 2010 season by Baseball America. Arrieta went 6-2 with a 1.85 ERA in 12 appearances with Triple-A Norfolk this season. Batters are hitting only .189 against him, and he has 64 strikeouts and 34 walks in 73 innings. The Yanks resume interleague play tomorrow against the Astros and while playing the Astros is nothing special, interleague play is and the Yanks really don’t need this game at all. They’re destroying the Orioles and may feel that all they have to do is show up here. A.J. Burnett is very often hit and miss and after dominating the O’s twice this year already the O’s might be ready for him. The price is great, the situation is good and perhaps the O’s can do a little early damage and take a lead going into the sixth. Play: Baltimore +2.25 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>TEXAS –1½ +1.01 over Seattle http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>The Mariners have lost five of six and the scores in those five losses were 12-2, 7-1, 9-4, 11-1 and 7-1. That’s 46-8 and things sure as hell don’t figure to get better here. Ryan Rowland-Smith (-25 BPV,2-0-0-0-3 PQS) returned from a stint in the bullpen on June 5 vs. LAA, allowing one earned run and recording a PQS-3. Usually a 20/20 ratio is something to brag about, but we’re talking about his K/BB ratio, not his eyesight. Extreme gopheritis (2.0 HR/9) is torching the ERA (6.65) and a trip to Rangers Ballpark has to be an uncomfortable thought for him. Smith is a stiff with an ERA on the road of 8.72 and he, like the whole staff and team is shell-shocked at the moment. Tommy Hunter (109 BPV,4 PQS) makes his second start. In his first start, he induced 17 ground balls, striking out four and walking none. That’s nice but we’re not relying on Hunter. We’re relying on both an inefficient Mariners offense and a pitcher that has one foot in the grave. Play: Texas –1½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Toronto +1.28 over TAMPA BAY http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers<o
></o>Brett Cecil (93 BPV,0-3-3-5-4 PQS) has won four straight starts, allowing five earned runs and walking just four in those outings. Low hit rate (26%) offsets strand rate (67%), negating any luck factors. Cecil is controlling games with a lack of walks, a low line drive rate (15%), and minimal HRs (0.6 HR/9). He has been impressive on the road this year, limiting batters to a .187 batting average in 33.2 innings. Wade Davis (9 BPV,2-3-0-2-0 PQS) has a nearly synchronized ERA (5.03) to xERA (5.08). Too many walks has been a negative and so has homeruns allowed (1.7 HR/9) including four HRs in the past two starts. Davis is the same at home (5.03 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .269 BA) as he is on the road (5.04 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .274 BA) and these Jays have been feasting off of pitchers like Davis all year. Play: Toronto +1.28 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o>**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o
></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o
></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o
></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
