Chicago +1.11 over CHICAGO http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
Note the 2:20 PM EST start. Jake Peavy remembers the National League very well indeed. That’s the league he dominated for years and a trip back to Wrigley Field to face the feeble-hitting Cubs can only bring back good memories for Peavy. He’ll be ready and so will the South Side. Jake Peavy (74 BPV, 4-4-3-3-4 PQS) suffered through a horrible April (7.85 ERA) but has done a great job of turning it around since then. His command has been way sharper, he posted a 3.07 xERA, and 155 BPV in May and it sure doesn’t hurt that the White Sox may have woke up. They’ve now won three of its last four while putting up a 15 and 8 spot in two of those games. As for the Cubbies, well, things are going from bad to worse. They’ve lost four series in a row to St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Houston and Milwaukee. The latter three are not easy to lose to, yet the Cubs pulled it off with flying colors. The Astros smacked around Randy Wells in his last start. He has just three quality starts over his last eight outings and three starts ago he failed to record a single out against the Cards. The league is hitting .290 off him and now there’s the added pressure of knowing that his spot in the rotation is in jeopardy, as Tom Gorzelanny waits. Wells has five K’s in his last three starts and hasn’t been fooling anyone for weeks. The South Side plus anything here is a no-brainer. Play: Chicago +1.11 (Risking 2 units). <o
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Houston +2.60 over NY YANKEES (1<sup>st</sup> 5 innings) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
The price here has heavy influence on this choice but there’s no denying that the Yanks are hugely overvalued here. For one, the Astros are playing some pretty good ball right now and are coming off a three-game sweep in Colorado. They’ve now won eight of 10 and Brett Myers has been one of the NL’s best pitchers. Myers has an ERA of 3.01. On the road his BAA is .238. He has 65 K’s in 80 frames and most importantly Myers has a 49% GB rate, which is one of the best in the league. At the new Yankee Stadium against this team, that’s big and should come in very handy. Andy Pettitte is having an outstanding year and you can’t help but root for this guy. However, he’s very capable of allowing runs, especially at home here he’s had a couple of tough outings. When you consider the way the Astros are playing, the excitement of playing on baseball’s biggest stage and then throw in this massive tag, this risk has to be one worth taking. Since this is largely based on the starter’s we’ll play it in five. Play Houston +2.60 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Seattle +1.25 over SAN DIEGO
The Mariners have been getting torched, ripped apart and humiliated over the past several games and a gut check is definitely in order. The trip to San Diego is not likely to be a pleasant one after the M’s were swept in Texas and were outscored by a ridiculous 31-5 and batted an even more ridiculous .161 at that park. Geoff Baker, who blogs the Mariners for the Seattle Times, wrote the following after last night’s loss: “Not much more to say about this 12-3 loss by the Mariners. They are now 10 games out. For me, it's about next year now. I'm not going to get bent out of shape analyzing details of this game. It was the worst one the team has played all season. The players embarrassed themselves and the city”. One has to figure that the Mariners have “had enough” and will at least put forth a strong effort. More than that, however, is the situation. The Padres played a double-header yesterday and will travel across the country back home for the start of this series. Physically, that’s a tough challenge and it’s not like they’re ripping it up either. In fact, the Padres have hit a combined .164 over its last four games. Kevin Correia might be the Padres worst starter and his 5.03 ERA will confirm that. Correia also has a 6.59 ERA over his last three starts and the fact is, he’s very beatable. Jason Vargas throws strikes and has a BAA of just .223 over 70 IP. He has a 4-2 record and a 3.06 ERA. The M’s have actually won three of his last four starts against Toronto, Detroit and Minnesota and he surely is not facing a tougher line-up here. Play: Seattle +1.25 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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Kansas City +1.51 over CINCINNATI
The Royals are a dangerous team in that they can score a lot of runs and that makes wagering against them very risky when you’re laying significant juice. The Royals are third in the AL in team BA just behind the Yanks and Rangers. Bronson Arroyo is 5-3 with a 4.65 ERA and he’s really been enjoying some good fortune that cannot last. Arroyo is 4-1 over his last six starts with a 3.37 ERA, however, his BPV over that same stretch is a lousy 3 (see bottom of page for explanation of BPV and PQS). There is no doubt whatsoever that an implosion is forthcoming, as Arroyo remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and certainly on this staff. He simply cannot be trusted as this big a favorite over a strong hitting AL squad. Luke Hochevar seems to have turned a corner over his last five starts, posting a 3.86 ERA and while the Reds are dangerous and this park is tough on pitchers, Hochevar has a better chance of Arroyo than coming up with a good game. The tag in this one seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
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**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
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In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
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1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
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2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
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3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
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4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
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5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
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A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
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Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
Note the 2:20 PM EST start. Jake Peavy remembers the National League very well indeed. That’s the league he dominated for years and a trip back to Wrigley Field to face the feeble-hitting Cubs can only bring back good memories for Peavy. He’ll be ready and so will the South Side. Jake Peavy (74 BPV, 4-4-3-3-4 PQS) suffered through a horrible April (7.85 ERA) but has done a great job of turning it around since then. His command has been way sharper, he posted a 3.07 xERA, and 155 BPV in May and it sure doesn’t hurt that the White Sox may have woke up. They’ve now won three of its last four while putting up a 15 and 8 spot in two of those games. As for the Cubbies, well, things are going from bad to worse. They’ve lost four series in a row to St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Houston and Milwaukee. The latter three are not easy to lose to, yet the Cubs pulled it off with flying colors. The Astros smacked around Randy Wells in his last start. He has just three quality starts over his last eight outings and three starts ago he failed to record a single out against the Cards. The league is hitting .290 off him and now there’s the added pressure of knowing that his spot in the rotation is in jeopardy, as Tom Gorzelanny waits. Wells has five K’s in his last three starts and hasn’t been fooling anyone for weeks. The South Side plus anything here is a no-brainer. Play: Chicago +1.11 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Houston +2.60 over NY YANKEES (1<sup>st</sup> 5 innings) http://www.pinnaclesports.com/?refer=xspwagers
The price here has heavy influence on this choice but there’s no denying that the Yanks are hugely overvalued here. For one, the Astros are playing some pretty good ball right now and are coming off a three-game sweep in Colorado. They’ve now won eight of 10 and Brett Myers has been one of the NL’s best pitchers. Myers has an ERA of 3.01. On the road his BAA is .238. He has 65 K’s in 80 frames and most importantly Myers has a 49% GB rate, which is one of the best in the league. At the new Yankee Stadium against this team, that’s big and should come in very handy. Andy Pettitte is having an outstanding year and you can’t help but root for this guy. However, he’s very capable of allowing runs, especially at home here he’s had a couple of tough outings. When you consider the way the Astros are playing, the excitement of playing on baseball’s biggest stage and then throw in this massive tag, this risk has to be one worth taking. Since this is largely based on the starter’s we’ll play it in five. Play Houston +2.60 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Seattle +1.25 over SAN DIEGO
The Mariners have been getting torched, ripped apart and humiliated over the past several games and a gut check is definitely in order. The trip to San Diego is not likely to be a pleasant one after the M’s were swept in Texas and were outscored by a ridiculous 31-5 and batted an even more ridiculous .161 at that park. Geoff Baker, who blogs the Mariners for the Seattle Times, wrote the following after last night’s loss: “Not much more to say about this 12-3 loss by the Mariners. They are now 10 games out. For me, it's about next year now. I'm not going to get bent out of shape analyzing details of this game. It was the worst one the team has played all season. The players embarrassed themselves and the city”. One has to figure that the Mariners have “had enough” and will at least put forth a strong effort. More than that, however, is the situation. The Padres played a double-header yesterday and will travel across the country back home for the start of this series. Physically, that’s a tough challenge and it’s not like they’re ripping it up either. In fact, the Padres have hit a combined .164 over its last four games. Kevin Correia might be the Padres worst starter and his 5.03 ERA will confirm that. Correia also has a 6.59 ERA over his last three starts and the fact is, he’s very beatable. Jason Vargas throws strikes and has a BAA of just .223 over 70 IP. He has a 4-2 record and a 3.06 ERA. The M’s have actually won three of his last four starts against Toronto, Detroit and Minnesota and he surely is not facing a tougher line-up here. Play: Seattle +1.25 (Risking 2 units). <o
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></o>Kansas City +1.51 over CINCINNATI
The Royals are a dangerous team in that they can score a lot of runs and that makes wagering against them very risky when you’re laying significant juice. The Royals are third in the AL in team BA just behind the Yanks and Rangers. Bronson Arroyo is 5-3 with a 4.65 ERA and he’s really been enjoying some good fortune that cannot last. Arroyo is 4-1 over his last six starts with a 3.37 ERA, however, his BPV over that same stretch is a lousy 3 (see bottom of page for explanation of BPV and PQS). There is no doubt whatsoever that an implosion is forthcoming, as Arroyo remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and certainly on this staff. He simply cannot be trusted as this big a favorite over a strong hitting AL squad. Luke Hochevar seems to have turned a corner over his last five starts, posting a 3.86 ERA and while the Reds are dangerous and this park is tough on pitchers, Hochevar has a better chance of Arroyo than coming up with a good game. The tag in this one seals the deal. Play: Kansas City +1.51 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o
></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o
></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o
></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
