<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="500"><tbody><tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Yesterday</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">2</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">+2.82 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Last 30 Days</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">41</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">60</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">2</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-13.36 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2010)</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">91</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">122</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">2</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-22.56 Units</td></tr></tbody></table>
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<o
></o><o><o>Kansas City –1.05 over CINCINNATI<o></o>
Zach Greinke has not been nearly as good as last season but he still doesn’t deserve a 1-8 record. He’s gotten very little run support but figures to get a bunch here. Greinke still has a bunch of gems to his credit this season that include a four-hitter against the Rays in 8 IP and a six-inning, five hit, one run performance against the Red Sox. The best news is that the Reds have never seen Greinke and that has to work to his advantage. Sam LeCure is pitching only because Homer Bailey is injured and as soon as Bailey comes back LeCure will be relegated to pen duty or more likely be sent back to the minors. LeCure is 1-2 with a very respectable 3.12 ERA but don’t be fooled by that. His three starts came against the Astros, Cards and Giants and that trifecta could make anyone look good. Fact is, LeCure (-24 BPV, 4-2-3 PQS) has avoided disaster due to an inflated 85% strand rate. The lack of control spell potential trouble, as LeCure has walked 12 batters in 12 innings and has a 1.67 WHIP. LeCure takes a huge step up in class when facing this very dangerous offense and while the Reds offense is also dangerous, Greinke’s chances of success here is so much better than LeCure’s. Play: Kansas City –1.05 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
<o></o>
L.A. Angels +1.19 over LOS ANGELES<o></o>
The Angels are on fire with 14 wins over its last 18 games and after winning the first two games of this series they have its ace going today, Jered Weaver. Weaver has 89 K’s in 81 IP and has walked just 22 batters all year. He allowed four jacks in his first five starts but did not allow a single jack in seven of his next nine starts leading up to this game. Weaver has a BAA of .239, an ERA of 3.20 and his 127 BPV is one of the best in the game. Carlos Monasterios (22 BPV) has worked five innings or more in each of his three most recent starts. The rookie's skills to-date are underwhelming, as he has been aided by a 22% hit rate and 86% strand rate. The 4.78 xERA here suggests the 2.27 ERA is unlikely to be sustained. Monasterios has benefitted from facing the D-Backs and Cards both at Dodger Stadium and when he faced the Rocks in Colorado he gave up four runs in five innings before being yanked. The guy is a reliever that is filling in for Vincente Padilla and in no way does he have an edge over Weaver. There is some true value here on the pooch, as Monasterios is average at best and again, the Angels are the hottest team in the league. Play: L.A. Angels +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o></o>
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o></o>
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o></o>
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o></o>
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o></o>
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o></o>
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o></o>
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o></o>
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o></o>
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
</o></o>
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<o
></o><o><o>Kansas City –1.05 over CINCINNATI<o></o>Zach Greinke has not been nearly as good as last season but he still doesn’t deserve a 1-8 record. He’s gotten very little run support but figures to get a bunch here. Greinke still has a bunch of gems to his credit this season that include a four-hitter against the Rays in 8 IP and a six-inning, five hit, one run performance against the Red Sox. The best news is that the Reds have never seen Greinke and that has to work to his advantage. Sam LeCure is pitching only because Homer Bailey is injured and as soon as Bailey comes back LeCure will be relegated to pen duty or more likely be sent back to the minors. LeCure is 1-2 with a very respectable 3.12 ERA but don’t be fooled by that. His three starts came against the Astros, Cards and Giants and that trifecta could make anyone look good. Fact is, LeCure (-24 BPV, 4-2-3 PQS) has avoided disaster due to an inflated 85% strand rate. The lack of control spell potential trouble, as LeCure has walked 12 batters in 12 innings and has a 1.67 WHIP. LeCure takes a huge step up in class when facing this very dangerous offense and while the Reds offense is also dangerous, Greinke’s chances of success here is so much better than LeCure’s. Play: Kansas City –1.05 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>L.A. Angels +1.19 over LOS ANGELES<o
></o> The Angels are on fire with 14 wins over its last 18 games and after winning the first two games of this series they have its ace going today, Jered Weaver. Weaver has 89 K’s in 81 IP and has walked just 22 batters all year. He allowed four jacks in his first five starts but did not allow a single jack in seven of his next nine starts leading up to this game. Weaver has a BAA of .239, an ERA of 3.20 and his 127 BPV is one of the best in the game. Carlos Monasterios (22 BPV) has worked five innings or more in each of his three most recent starts. The rookie's skills to-date are underwhelming, as he has been aided by a 22% hit rate and 86% strand rate. The 4.78 xERA here suggests the 2.27 ERA is unlikely to be sustained. Monasterios has benefitted from facing the D-Backs and Cards both at Dodger Stadium and when he faced the Rocks in Colorado he gave up four runs in five innings before being yanked. The guy is a reliever that is filling in for Vincente Padilla and in no way does he have an edge over Weaver. There is some true value here on the pooch, as Monasterios is average at best and again, the Angels are the hottest team in the league. Play: L.A. Angels +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o
></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o
></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o
></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
</o
></o>
