The +EV winning formula
Sports bettors' psychology (be it handicapping a game to pick the winning side or deciding on how much to bet) always works against them. All it takes is a couple of losses or a small losing streak for this pressure to take effect in most bettors. They will let emotions take over when they are down and they will do all the "DON'Ts" of sports betting, with the most common one being chasing losses by playing too many games or betting too much. Nearly 2 years after using many sports services, I realized that sports handicapping services are lot worse than an average bettor when it comes to psychology because of the pressure to produce results for their clients. All it takes is a small losing streak and they are doomed for ever because they will activate the chase mode. The end results is a -EV sports service. MOST PROFESSIONAL SPORTS HANDICAPPING SERVICES RESULTS ARE -EV NOT BECAUSE OF THEIR IN ABILITY TO HANDICAP GAMES, IT IS RATHER THEIR INABILITY TO STAY DISCIPLINED. As soon as they go on chase mode they will start betting on games that they wouldn't normally bet, -EV bets. To make things worse, they would bet lot more on these -EV bets than the amount that they were betting on the +EV bets prior to the chase mode.
By the fall of 2006 I have successfully mastered the art of when to fade and when to tail a sports service for a nice +EV return. There are hundreds of services out there, that means a lot picks. Key is to study them all and spot the chase mode at early stages. I closely study and analyze a database with numerous sports services (about 50!) . I get their daily picks from the "service plays" threads of major sports betting forums and I subscribe to the services that I cannot find in those threads. I go through all these daily picks and come up with 5 to 10 possible +EV plays. From these possible plays, I will bet only 1 to 3 plays, i.e. the top three +EV plays in my estimate. Some of these bets are fades and some are tails.
I have 3 rules that I strictly follow when it comes to betting these games. 1. Never bet more than $1000 (I use only 4 bet sizes: $250, $500, $750, $1000. Majority of the bets are for $500 or $750) 2. Never make more than three bets on any given day. 3. Don't break rules one and two. Keep in mind that these rules are personal--just for me. You can set the bet sizes to 1, 2, 3, and 4 units and assign whatever monetary value suits you best for each unit. The limit of 3 games is to make this method work efficiently and keep me from falling under psychology problems. If you are a professional bettor with a very large bankroll, making a living with sports betting you should never limit yourself to three bets a day if you can find more than three +ev bets.
REMEMBER THAT IF YOU BLINDLY TAIL OR FADE ALL THE PICKS OF A SPORTS SERVICE, YOU WILL LOSE YOUR BANKROLL SOONER OR LATER BECAUSE THEY WILL FALL INTO TO THE PSYCHOLOGY PROBLEM THAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT EARLIER. IT IS A FACT THAT IF YOU BLINDLY FADE OR TAIL A SERVICE IT WILL BE -EV IN THE LONG RUN.
I have received many emails regarding rule one because of the great success that I am having. They always ask, why don't I move to Vegas to do this full time instead of limiting my self to just $1000 max bet etc. If I am to do that, I know for for a fact that the psychology that I was talking about earlier would kick in and destroy everything. Sometimes I get the temptation to bet larger amounts or to make more than 3 bets (especially during weekends) but I always kick the temptation away regardless of how my bets perform. When you involve too much money, emotions will play a big role and that my friend will have a huge negative effect on your betting related decisions. LIKE I MENTIONED BEFORE, THESE RULES ARE MY PERSONAL CHOICES. SPORTS BETTING WILL ALWAYS REMAIN AS A RECREATIONAL ACTIVITY FOR ME--NOT A PROFESSION!
