three tonight w/analysis

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<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="500"><tbody><tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Yesterday</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">+2.16 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Last 30 Days</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">43</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">54</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-1.26 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2010)</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">94</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">122</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">2</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-16.02 Units</td></tr></tbody></table>
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.


<o:p><o:p>Toronto +1.10 over SAN DIEGO <o:p></o:p>
The Jays snapped an ugly slump last night both at the plate and in the win column and a single win can do wonders for a team’s psyche. Also worth noting is that Aaron Hill and his .188 average went 3-4 for three doubles and Hill is not a .200 hitter, as he has one of the sweetest swings in the game and will be closer to .300 when the season is done. Brett Cecil is another Blue Jay that is way undervalued. Cecil has outstanding numbers right across the board that includes a .206 BAA, a 7-2 record and a 3.22 ERA. Cecil is coming off back-to-back gems against the Rays ands Yanks in which he surrendered just one run to both those juggernauts. Over his last five starts he’s allowed six runs and has one of the lowest line-drive percentages in the league at 15.1%. He’s only walked 16 batters all season in 64 IP and he’s only allowed five bombs. Mat Latos also has terrific numbers and practically mirror those of Cecil. The difference however, is that Cecil is facing teams like the Yanks, Rays, Red Sox, Rangers and Angels at difficult parks while Latos is facing teams like the Mets, San Fran, Houston and Seattle. Latos has allowed seven runs in his last 16 IP, he was torched three times in his first four starts and he’s not nearly as durable as Cecil. Furthermore, the Jays offense is much more dangerous than the Padres offense and thus the Jays are very worthy of another look tonight. Play: Toronto +1.10 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Los Angeles/CINCINNATI over 9 +1.06 <o:p></o:p>
When it’s warm in Cincinnati balls fly out of this park and game-time temperature is 89°F. Then we have Aaron Harang going and Harang has very few good starts this season. He’s allowed 92 hits in 76 frames for a BAA of .297. 13.6% of his fly balls allowed have left the park and one has to figure the Dodgers to whack at least one or two. It’s also worth noting that current Dodger hitters are batting a collective .364 off Harang in a combined 129 AB’s. The last time the Dodgers were here back in April when the ball does not carry as good, these two combined for scores of 11-9, 14-6 and 8-5. Incidentally, that 14-6 game was Harang vs Kuroda with the Dodgers scoring 14 times. Kuroda has made just one start away from Dodger Stadium in the past month and it wasn't good - a 4 inning shellacking at Colorado in which he allowed seven runs in four innings. He’s benefitted largely from pitching most of his games at Chavez Ravine but a .273 BAA is not so great when you consider that. Kuroda is a two-pitch pitcher and that’s it. If he’s not throwing a slider he’s throwing a fastball and while two-pitch pitchers can have success, this ballpark makes it extremely difficult. Just like they did back in April an implosion from both pitchers and an explosion from both offenses is a distinct possibility indeed. Play: Cincinnati/L.A. over 9 +1.06 (Risking 2 units).

Oakland +1.20 over CHICAGO <o:p></o:p><o:p></o:p>
As long as the books keep making the Cubbies the chalk with Carlos Zambrano going, we’ll continue to wager against them. The reality is that Zamrano’s starts were better before the trip to the bullpen than they have been since he returned to the rotation and thus, why should we trust him or the Cubbies for that matter? Zambrano has walked eight batters and struck out five in his two starts since being re-inserted. He also had nine GB outs against 20 flyball outs and that, too, is a concern. His 42% GB rate is the lowest of his career. Lou Pinella had no choice but to re-insert Zambrano because he’s making 18M this year and they have nobody else. Zambrano has a .305 BAA, a 6.05 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. Zambrano is also playing for a garbage club that does not do anything well and frankly, he and the Cubs offer nothing as the favorite. Trevor Cahill hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in a start since his first outing on April 30. He doesn’t dazzle but he keeps the ball down and has allowed just one bomb over his last five starts. Cahill also has a BAA on the road of just .213 and overall his BAA is a very impressive .225. In his nine starts thus far, the A’s have won six of them and there's no reason they can't make it seven. Play: Oakland +1.20 (Risking 2 units). <o:p></o:p>
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aka...shdw03
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bol sherwood
 

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Thanks sherlock. Followed 2 games tonight. both winners. appreciate the work
 

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