Tuesday (0-0 Posting in 2010)

(1 UNIT = $10)

10 UNITS EACH: (Also 5 UNITS on Run Lines for each)

7:10 pm ET: Boston Red Sox (-200); 5 UNITS Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (+100)

8:10 pm ET: Houston Astros (+105); 5 UNITS Astros Run Line -1.5 (+170)

10:05 pm ET: Anaheim Angels (-185); 5 UNITS Angels Run Line -1.5 (+105)


:money8::money8::money8:

Reasoning to come...

Simple Reasoning, Arizona @ Boston:

Arizona's Bullpen:
ERA in All games = 7.33
ERA in Road games = 8.36

Clay Buchholz has been on fire lately with a 1.17 ERA in his last 3 starts. In those 3 starts he also has a 0.91 WHIP. He has also gone 7 and 2/3 innings, average, in those 3 starts, which helps Boston's bullpen. Buchholz has been better on the road rather than at home, but his last 2 home starts have been great, too.

Ian Kennedy has pitched well in his last 3 starts as well, but he isn't the kind of pitcher that will get you to the 8th inning. Kennedy is a solid pitcher, but he is much worse on the road. This season he has allowed a BAA of .181 at home, and .262 on the road. His ERA is also 2.42 at home, yet 3.92 on the road. Boston is a hard place to pitch, and I don't expect a young Ian Kennedy to come in to Boston and pitch more than 6 innings. Expect 6 innings of 3 run ball from Kennedy, and another 3 runs from Arizona's relief/bullpen.

Even if we see both starters go 7 innings of 3 run ball, I expect Boston to come out with a late win against Arizona's weak bullpen.

Prediction:
AZ 3
BOS 7

GL Deke

Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals:

These two starting pitchers are going in opposite directions;

Paulino's last 3 starts:
ERA of 1.12; WHIP of 1.04
8.0 innings average

Davies last 3 starts:
ERA of 8.62; WHIP of 2.04
5.33 innings average

Houston has a huge pitching advantage. Also, these bullpens have both struggled, but as we can see, it will depend on how far the starters can take their team. Kansas City has a better offense, but due to this pitching match-up, Houston has the advantage. If Paulino can go 7-8 innings, then Houston's bullpen will be less of a factor. Kansas City's relief, however, will come in for the last 3-4 innings, which will play a significant role in the outcome of this game. Houston's offense is not too explosive, but they can provide some good run support now and again.

Prediction:
HOU 6
KC 3

Milwaukee Brewers @ Anaheim Angels

Ignore last night's game, which included a Brewer's double-digit run outbreak that we haven't seen in over a month. This all started with a shakey inning that ended with a 2 out grand slam in the 3rd inning.

The fact that you should consider is how the Angels have shown that they can rebound very well off of a loss. In the month of June alone, they have followed up their only 3 losses with wins of [7-2, 7-1, and 10-1].

Dave Bush has been pitching better than his season totals this season, but his BB/SO ratio is 1.07 on the road, and a WHIP of 1.53. Milwaukee, as a team, is also 1-5 in Bush's road starts. Bush has averaged 5.2 innings pitched on the road, which will get Milwaukee's bullpen in the game much sooner than they wish. Milwaukee has 7 saves and 6 blown saves on the road this year.

Ervin Santana got hot, and had a bad outing. His BB/SO ratio is an awesome .29 at home this season. His WHIP is just 1.15 at home as well. Santana has also proven that he can pitch 6.8 innings per game at home, which reduces LAA's bullpen factor.

I expect LAA's offense to rebound, as they have proven they can. And Milwaukee's defense will do their part to help this happen.

Prediction:
MIL 3
LAA 8