<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="500"><tbody><tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Yesterday</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">2</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">+2.52 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Last 30 Days</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">44</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">51</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">+6.96 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2010)</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">96</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">123</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">2</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-13.50 Units</td></tr></tbody></table>
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<o
><o>NY Mets –1.10 over CLEVELAND <o></o>
What’s incredible is that the Indians have scored 43 runs over its last six ball games and the reason that’s incredible is that they can’t hit. Both Grady Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera are on the rack and likely won’t be back for the remainder of the year. The Indians have brutal numbers against southpaws and will face a resurgent one here in Jonathan Niese. Niese (77 BPV, 3-0-0-5-4 PQS) has rebounded well since his June 5 return to the Mets rotation. He tossed a one-hitter against SD in his last and pitched seven innings of one-run ball the start before that against a tough Marlins squad. In that game against FLA, he only threw 90 pitches. Over those last two starts, Niese struck out 12 and walked one and he induced 25 ground balls against just 12 fly-outs. Those are all great signs of a guy feeling it and he’s pitching for a team that’s also feeling it. The Mets have won five in a row and nine of its last 10 games. Mitch Talbot (-1 BPV, 2-4-3-4-0 PQS) continues to get by with shaky command and a fortunate and unsustainable hit/strand profile (26%/76%). He comes into this home start against a confident hitting Mets squad toting around a season ERA of 3.59, nearly 1.5 runs off his xERA (5.06). Talbot’s charmed life very likely hits a snag here. Play: NY Mets –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2). <o></o>
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Los Angeles –1.10 over CINCINNATI <o></o>
Rookie Mike Leake is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.68 and that’s pretty sweet. However, the Reds were winning, they were scoring plenty of runs for him and he was able to pitch with very little pressure on him. Well, those dynamics have changed, as the Reds are laboring badly with just three wins in its last eight and one of those wins was extremely lucky. Leake is coming off his first disaster of the season against the Giants in which he was rocked for 11 hits and 5 ER in 4.1 innings. He’ll now face a Dodger team that explodes every time they play here. In four games this season at Great American, the Dodgers have scored 40 runs and they could even run into a somewhat fragile Leake in this one. When he makes mistakes at home, those pitches have ended up on the other side of the wall at Great American (all 6 HR allowed coming at home) and he's had better numbers on the road. Clayton Kershaw (67 BPV, 5-5-4-4-5 PQS) has thrown a PQS-4 or 5 in seven straight. He punched out a season-high 10 batters in his last start and has 27 K’s over his last 18.2 IP. Cincinnati hits left-handers well and their offense clicks at home but they’re suddenly pressing and Kershaw is on a roll (1.91 ERA, since May 4) and he has dominated the Reds in limited past action. Play: Los Angeles –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units). <o></o>
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Milwaukee +1.45 over L.A. ANGELS <o></o>
Joel Pineiro is about as average as they come and he’s coming off a complete game gem in L.A. against the Dodgers. In that game he threw 118 pitches and the game before that he threw 107 pitches in Seattle. Now he’s going to face an offense that has exploded for 19 runs in the first two games of this series. Milwaukee is also playing its best ball of the year with six wins in its last nine. Pineiro has been absolutely rocked on more than a few occasions already this year and figures to have a tough time here after two good games in pitcher-friendly venues. The Angels have struggled vs lefties all year, especially at home where they’ve won just four times in 11 games against left-handed starters. Chris Narverson can be extremely good. He has great stuff and when he’s throwing strikes he’s tough as shoe leather. Narveson has a BAA of just .244 and that number has been progressively coming down all season long. He has four pitches (fastball, slider, curve and change) and he’s now utilizing all of them with confidence. The price here adds to the appeal of playing the Brewers, as its chances of winning are just as good and maybe better than the Angels chances. Overlay. Play: Milwaukee +1.45 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
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**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
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**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
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In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
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1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
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2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
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3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
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4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
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5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
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A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o></o>
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<o
><o>NY Mets –1.10 over CLEVELAND <o></o>What’s incredible is that the Indians have scored 43 runs over its last six ball games and the reason that’s incredible is that they can’t hit. Both Grady Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera are on the rack and likely won’t be back for the remainder of the year. The Indians have brutal numbers against southpaws and will face a resurgent one here in Jonathan Niese. Niese (77 BPV, 3-0-0-5-4 PQS) has rebounded well since his June 5 return to the Mets rotation. He tossed a one-hitter against SD in his last and pitched seven innings of one-run ball the start before that against a tough Marlins squad. In that game against FLA, he only threw 90 pitches. Over those last two starts, Niese struck out 12 and walked one and he induced 25 ground balls against just 12 fly-outs. Those are all great signs of a guy feeling it and he’s pitching for a team that’s also feeling it. The Mets have won five in a row and nine of its last 10 games. Mitch Talbot (-1 BPV, 2-4-3-4-0 PQS) continues to get by with shaky command and a fortunate and unsustainable hit/strand profile (26%/76%). He comes into this home start against a confident hitting Mets squad toting around a season ERA of 3.59, nearly 1.5 runs off his xERA (5.06). Talbot’s charmed life very likely hits a snag here. Play: NY Mets –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2). <o
></o><o
></o>Los Angeles –1.10 over CINCINNATI <o
></o>Rookie Mike Leake is 5-0 with an ERA of 2.68 and that’s pretty sweet. However, the Reds were winning, they were scoring plenty of runs for him and he was able to pitch with very little pressure on him. Well, those dynamics have changed, as the Reds are laboring badly with just three wins in its last eight and one of those wins was extremely lucky. Leake is coming off his first disaster of the season against the Giants in which he was rocked for 11 hits and 5 ER in 4.1 innings. He’ll now face a Dodger team that explodes every time they play here. In four games this season at Great American, the Dodgers have scored 40 runs and they could even run into a somewhat fragile Leake in this one. When he makes mistakes at home, those pitches have ended up on the other side of the wall at Great American (all 6 HR allowed coming at home) and he's had better numbers on the road. Clayton Kershaw (67 BPV, 5-5-4-4-5 PQS) has thrown a PQS-4 or 5 in seven straight. He punched out a season-high 10 batters in his last start and has 27 K’s over his last 18.2 IP. Cincinnati hits left-handers well and their offense clicks at home but they’re suddenly pressing and Kershaw is on a roll (1.91 ERA, since May 4) and he has dominated the Reds in limited past action. Play: Los Angeles –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>Milwaukee +1.45 over L.A. ANGELS <o
></o>Joel Pineiro is about as average as they come and he’s coming off a complete game gem in L.A. against the Dodgers. In that game he threw 118 pitches and the game before that he threw 107 pitches in Seattle. Now he’s going to face an offense that has exploded for 19 runs in the first two games of this series. Milwaukee is also playing its best ball of the year with six wins in its last nine. Pineiro has been absolutely rocked on more than a few occasions already this year and figures to have a tough time here after two good games in pitcher-friendly venues. The Angels have struggled vs lefties all year, especially at home where they’ve won just four times in 11 games against left-handed starters. Chris Narverson can be extremely good. He has great stuff and when he’s throwing strikes he’s tough as shoe leather. Narveson has a BAA of just .244 and that number has been progressively coming down all season long. He has four pitches (fastball, slider, curve and change) and he’s now utilizing all of them with confidence. The price here adds to the appeal of playing the Brewers, as its chances of winning are just as good and maybe better than the Angels chances. Overlay. Play: Milwaukee +1.45 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o></o
></o>**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o
></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o
></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o
></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
