<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="500"><tbody><tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Yesterday</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">2</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">0</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">+2.00 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Last 30 Days</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">46</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">51</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">1</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">+10.96 Units</td></tr> <tr> <td class="rs_value" align="left" valign="top" width="50%">Season To Date (Since March 2010)</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">98</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">124</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="10%">2</td> <td class="rs_value" align="right" valign="top" width="20%">-11.50 Units</td></tr></tbody></table>
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<o
><o>Los Angeles –1½ +1.47 over CINCINNATI <o></o>
Note the 12:35 PM EST start. The Dodgers are ripping this host apart and after winning the first two games by a combined score of 18-2, things surely don’t get tougher for them here. Cleveland, St, Louis and Kansas City have rocked Bronson Arroyo in three of his last five starts. His two good outings over that stretch came against PIT and WAS. He’s not having a bad year but Arroyo is consistent in that he will give up runs for sure and is more likely to give up four or five than two or three. With the way the Dodgers are swinging the bats at this park chances are good that they’ll score a whole bunch once again. Besides, the Reds are reeling, they’re fragile, this will be its 10th straight game at home and they could very much be looking forward to hitting the road and playing in Seattle this weekend. John Ely is coming off a couple of tough starts against Atlanta and the Angels, two of the hottest hitting squads in the league. Still, he’s only allowed three jacks all season in 56 IP and that’s nice to know when pitching at this park. He also throws strikes (13 walks all year) and that, too, is crucial for success at this venue. Ely has solid numbers right across the board and those impressive numbers are not limited to Dodger Stadium. On the road, Ely has yet to allow a single bomb and the league has hit just .222 off him. After each loss, winning the next game becomes more difficult and right now the Reds can’t wait to see the Mariners. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
<o></o>
Tampa Bay +1.16 over ATLANTA <o></o>
James Shields has fallen on hard times recently with three poor outings in succession, however, one of those came at Texas and this guy has thrown too many gems this season to be overly concerned about it. Shields has a gem against the Yanks, not once but twice and against the Red Sox among a slew of others. He ranks seventh in the AL with 82 K’s and in 42 road innings he’s walked just 7 batters. His numbers are not great, his last three games have been disastrous and he’s facing a guy with outstanding numbers and an outstanding reputation in Tim Hudson. Why then, did the Braves open at such a short (-1.18) price? Oddsmakers are too sharp too make an error and they know Hudson (26 BPV, 3-0-5-2-4 PQS) is having a season that is unsustainable. A 2.43 ERA, close to two full runs below xERA of 4.16 is due in part to a depressed hit rate (24%) and inflated strand rate (82%). Unheard of ground ball rates (65%) and line drive rates (12%) have helped his season and he’s been pitching with huge leads on so many occasions. Fact is, he has just 36 K’s against 30 walks and he’s been perhaps the leagues most fortunate pitcher in that everything has been hit right at people. A big correction in his numbers is forthcoming and according to the line, the oddsmakers expect that correction to take place here. Play: Tampa Bay +1.16 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
<o></o>
Oakland +1.09 over CHICAGO <o></o>
Note the 2:20 PM EST start. Much has been said about Dallas Braden’s injuries the past few games but he was pushed back a couple of days because of elbow tendinitis and he says his ankle is fine. The point is, the A’s would not start him if he wasn’t feeling 100% and that’s all there is to it. Braden is a solid pitcher and should be raring and ready to go here against a very beatable team. Even with three poor outings in a row, Braden still has an ERA of 3.95 and a BAA of .259. He’s had no run support whatsoever and thus, the misleading 4-6 record. Fact is, Braden has outstanding control (14 walks and a 1.16 WHIP in 82 IP) and the Cubbies have never seen him before. The A’s lost last night but they faced a very tough Ryan Dempster and once again the Cubbies are overvalued here with Randy Wells going. Wells has been spiraling out of control after a solid April. Since April 25, his ERA has risen from 2.59 to the current 5.15. At Wrigley, Wells has allowed 45 hits in 32 frames for a BAA of .326. His BAA in two starts this month is .404. His home ERA is 6.47 and in his last four starts, the Cards, Astros and White Sox absolutely torched him. His only good start in recent memory came against the feeble Pirates. Wells is about as mentally fragile as a pitcher can be and once again the Cubbies are ripe as hell to be beat. Play: Oakland +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
</o></o>
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o></o>
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o></o>
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o></o>
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o></o>
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o></o>
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o></o>
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o></o>
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o></o>
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o></o>
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
<o
><o>Los Angeles –1½ +1.47 over CINCINNATI <o></o>Note the 12:35 PM EST start. The Dodgers are ripping this host apart and after winning the first two games by a combined score of 18-2, things surely don’t get tougher for them here. Cleveland, St, Louis and Kansas City have rocked Bronson Arroyo in three of his last five starts. His two good outings over that stretch came against PIT and WAS. He’s not having a bad year but Arroyo is consistent in that he will give up runs for sure and is more likely to give up four or five than two or three. With the way the Dodgers are swinging the bats at this park chances are good that they’ll score a whole bunch once again. Besides, the Reds are reeling, they’re fragile, this will be its 10th straight game at home and they could very much be looking forward to hitting the road and playing in Seattle this weekend. John Ely is coming off a couple of tough starts against Atlanta and the Angels, two of the hottest hitting squads in the league. Still, he’s only allowed three jacks all season in 56 IP and that’s nice to know when pitching at this park. He also throws strikes (13 walks all year) and that, too, is crucial for success at this venue. Ely has solid numbers right across the board and those impressive numbers are not limited to Dodger Stadium. On the road, Ely has yet to allow a single bomb and the league has hit just .222 off him. After each loss, winning the next game becomes more difficult and right now the Reds can’t wait to see the Mariners. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>Tampa Bay +1.16 over ATLANTA <o
></o>James Shields has fallen on hard times recently with three poor outings in succession, however, one of those came at Texas and this guy has thrown too many gems this season to be overly concerned about it. Shields has a gem against the Yanks, not once but twice and against the Red Sox among a slew of others. He ranks seventh in the AL with 82 K’s and in 42 road innings he’s walked just 7 batters. His numbers are not great, his last three games have been disastrous and he’s facing a guy with outstanding numbers and an outstanding reputation in Tim Hudson. Why then, did the Braves open at such a short (-1.18) price? Oddsmakers are too sharp too make an error and they know Hudson (26 BPV, 3-0-5-2-4 PQS) is having a season that is unsustainable. A 2.43 ERA, close to two full runs below xERA of 4.16 is due in part to a depressed hit rate (24%) and inflated strand rate (82%). Unheard of ground ball rates (65%) and line drive rates (12%) have helped his season and he’s been pitching with huge leads on so many occasions. Fact is, he has just 36 K’s against 30 walks and he’s been perhaps the leagues most fortunate pitcher in that everything has been hit right at people. A big correction in his numbers is forthcoming and according to the line, the oddsmakers expect that correction to take place here. Play: Tampa Bay +1.16 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>Oakland +1.09 over CHICAGO <o
></o>Note the 2:20 PM EST start. Much has been said about Dallas Braden’s injuries the past few games but he was pushed back a couple of days because of elbow tendinitis and he says his ankle is fine. The point is, the A’s would not start him if he wasn’t feeling 100% and that’s all there is to it. Braden is a solid pitcher and should be raring and ready to go here against a very beatable team. Even with three poor outings in a row, Braden still has an ERA of 3.95 and a BAA of .259. He’s had no run support whatsoever and thus, the misleading 4-6 record. Fact is, Braden has outstanding control (14 walks and a 1.16 WHIP in 82 IP) and the Cubbies have never seen him before. The A’s lost last night but they faced a very tough Ryan Dempster and once again the Cubbies are overvalued here with Randy Wells going. Wells has been spiraling out of control after a solid April. Since April 25, his ERA has risen from 2.59 to the current 5.15. At Wrigley, Wells has allowed 45 hits in 32 frames for a BAA of .326. His BAA in two starts this month is .404. His home ERA is 6.47 and in his last four starts, the Cards, Astros and White Sox absolutely torched him. His only good start in recent memory came against the feeble Pirates. Wells is about as mentally fragile as a pitcher can be and once again the Cubbies are ripe as hell to be beat. Play: Oakland +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
</o
></o>**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
<o
></o>**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
<o
></o>In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
<o
></o>1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
<o
></o>2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
<o
></o>3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
<o
></o>4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
<o
></o>5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
<o
></o>A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
<o
></o>Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
