Well, before the tournament started, I wanted to take MEX+0 in that matchup...but not anymore: I've thought about that matchup for quite a while now and will be making two small bets:
FRA clean sheet +135
FRA to win to nil / win with clean sheet +221 (even smaller ;-) )
I wrote a bit about the French and their problems before their opening match against Uruguay last Friday. In short: They have great individuals, but lack in team play, their team chemistry is pretty much non-existent (looks like that team is actually divided in 2 or 3 larger groups, which can't get along with each other) and their offense doesn't get clicking.
But after watching the first matches by FRA+MEX, I think MEX might be a pretty good fit for France: Mexicos defense was rather slow, they gave away very much space to RSA and often times were unorganised defensively. They were also prone to high balls and counter attacks. If they give the French team that much room, guys like Ribery will fair MUCH better than against that hardnosed URU defense and they will start to circulate the ball and additionally create scoring chances by going 1on1, especially due to their superior speed. Guys like Anelka and Henry also should be at least really competitive in the air, so they should have some good chances for headers after Ribery/Govou/Gourcuff got down to the goalline and get the ball into the middle.
Statistically clean sheet seems like a bad bet on France: They allowed goals to teams like China and almost all the opponents in their preparation matches while MEX scored in every game besides their scoreless tie against Ecuador.
But Frances defense was vastly improved against URU, they held the South-Americans almost without any real scoring chances. MEX on the other hand had its fair share of scoring opportunities against RSA, but RSAs defense is really bad and lots of these chances came after corner/free kicks, which shouldn't be much of a scoring threat against France, and when RSAs took too much time to get back to defense after turning over the ball. Frances transition defense is way better and during their qualifying matches they also were solid defensively.
FRA also should be in a way better situation if the game ended in a tie: Both teams (FRA+MEX) would be tied with 2pts, but FRA has to play RSA (weakest team in Group A), while MEX has to play URU. So I would expect FRA to play with a kind of like "defense first" approach, where their defenders will rarely support the offense and they rely heavily on a quick transition game without ever giving up their defensive composure.
Mexico can be tough to play because of all the player movement, but they lack a real playmaker, their forwards should be inferior to Frances defenders in the air and France probably won't give them much room to play.
I'd expect MEX to win time of possession, but as soon as they get about 25-30m to the French goal, there won't be much room to play and they will lack ideas to crack the French defense.
FRA clean sheet +135
FRA to win to nil / win with clean sheet +221 (even smaller ;-) )
I wrote a bit about the French and their problems before their opening match against Uruguay last Friday. In short: They have great individuals, but lack in team play, their team chemistry is pretty much non-existent (looks like that team is actually divided in 2 or 3 larger groups, which can't get along with each other) and their offense doesn't get clicking.
But after watching the first matches by FRA+MEX, I think MEX might be a pretty good fit for France: Mexicos defense was rather slow, they gave away very much space to RSA and often times were unorganised defensively. They were also prone to high balls and counter attacks. If they give the French team that much room, guys like Ribery will fair MUCH better than against that hardnosed URU defense and they will start to circulate the ball and additionally create scoring chances by going 1on1, especially due to their superior speed. Guys like Anelka and Henry also should be at least really competitive in the air, so they should have some good chances for headers after Ribery/Govou/Gourcuff got down to the goalline and get the ball into the middle.
Statistically clean sheet seems like a bad bet on France: They allowed goals to teams like China and almost all the opponents in their preparation matches while MEX scored in every game besides their scoreless tie against Ecuador.
But Frances defense was vastly improved against URU, they held the South-Americans almost without any real scoring chances. MEX on the other hand had its fair share of scoring opportunities against RSA, but RSAs defense is really bad and lots of these chances came after corner/free kicks, which shouldn't be much of a scoring threat against France, and when RSAs took too much time to get back to defense after turning over the ball. Frances transition defense is way better and during their qualifying matches they also were solid defensively.
FRA also should be in a way better situation if the game ended in a tie: Both teams (FRA+MEX) would be tied with 2pts, but FRA has to play RSA (weakest team in Group A), while MEX has to play URU. So I would expect FRA to play with a kind of like "defense first" approach, where their defenders will rarely support the offense and they rely heavily on a quick transition game without ever giving up their defensive composure.
Mexico can be tough to play because of all the player movement, but they lack a real playmaker, their forwards should be inferior to Frances defenders in the air and France probably won't give them much room to play.
I'd expect MEX to win time of possession, but as soon as they get about 25-30m to the French goal, there won't be much room to play and they will lack ideas to crack the French defense.
Last edited by a moderator:
ope:
