World Cup - Tuesday - Mexico/Uruguay - Might as well call it a FIX

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Both teams advance with a draw shutting out any chance France might have of advancing. Can't see either team risking a loss and the draw odds pretty well confirm it.

Mexico +294
Uruguay +364
Draw -128
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Do these teams really play it that safe?

Things like this are exactly why soccer isn't that popular in the United States & some other places.

Do they not have any pride to just go out and try to win it?
 

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Mexico would be plain stupid to play for a draw: The difference between beating URU and a draw is the difference of playing Argentina or Korea/Greece in the next round...and I sure as hell would prefer to avoid ARG in that game...

The odds on the tie are a bad joke, but are far from indicating a fix: Just look at the final days of regular season play in Serie B (Italy) or Greece. Many games where the tie was like -200 or worse and where actually one team won the game in the end.
 

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I might go with URU+0 +113 here, but holding out since the line seems to move against me:
MEX should go for the win to avoid playing ARG in their next match. URU has shut out both their opponents so far and didn't allow many scoring chances in both these games. MEX is the best offensive side they faced so far, but I'd expect MEX to struggle with URU giving them little room to play.
Counter attacking also plays into URUs cards because they have a quick transition game thanks to Forlan, who starts almost every counter attack. MEX also had problems to defend against a counter attacking RSA team in the 2nd half of their first game.
 

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The same scenerio existed a few years back in group play when the final group game involved 2 Scandonavian teams playing each other with a chance to freeze out the Italians from advancing if they drew 2-2. That game ended 2-2.

Soriano, i'm not saying it's a fix but if you think either team will risk losing here by all means blast away at those plus lines. I miscue by Mexico and giving up a goal on the counterattack and the coach might as well not return home. Mexico did the same thing years back as well in a game with the italians where the final 20 minutes were an embarrassment to the game of soccer. The ball never made it farther than 15 yards from the centre of the pitch.
 

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I will take a AHC+0 bet, so if the game end in a tie, I'll get my money back.
All I wanted to point out was the fact, that imo this ain't your typical "freeze out" scenario because there will be a huge difference in opponents quality depending on finishing 1st or 2nd. In addition to that, even if they lose by 1 goal, France still would have to win by at least 3 goals to advance, because right now URU is +3, MEX +2 and France -2 in goal difference. So unless France is already up by 2 goals, there would be no need to play for a tie in the last 20min or so. I can see this game easily end 0-0 every single day (without a scenario like now), since URUs defense is pretty damn good and MEX is solid defensively, too, for most parts.
But I just don't get the huge line move for the draw under these circumstances.

And since I'm German, I know enough games, that fit your description. Probably the most famous in Germany being the game between Germany and Austria back in 1982, when Germany won 1-0 in their final game, both teams advanced with that result and Algeria got eliminated...and both teams pretty much stopped playing for the remainder of that game after Germany scored the go-ahead goal.
 

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Good luck with your pick. Should be interesting to see how the game plays out tomorrow. That Sweden/Denmark game I referred to was in the Euros back in 2004.
 

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BOL for you, too, if you make any bets tomorrow.
Yes, will be interesting to see. I wouldn't expect a scoring festival or Mexico blindly attacking, but would be surprised if both teams really went for the tie for the whole game. And even though that +364 on URU ML looks tempting, I'd still go with the "safer" bet and take +0 just in case they really went for the "fix" ;-)
 

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Thanks. Basically playing the draw and then clean sheet for Argentina. Not much else I like.
 

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Looked at ARG clean sheet, too. Not sure yet if I'll pull the trigger on that one.
Also kind of like France clean sheet at +178, but I wanted to stay away as far as possible from the French....but these odds are really tempting: RSA was weak offensively, imo FRA was ok defensively for most part. And Domenech will be gone after the wc, so with their behaviour and the whole theater they started after their loss to MEX, the players put themselves into a position where they have to deliver unless they want to get completely ripped apart from their media/press. So I guess they will show up to perform...but you never know with that bunch of...
 

powdered milkman
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i expect the draw to rise also i see -45 at few spots already
 

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uruguay will be playing for a draw, while trying to counter-attack. I expect Mexico to throw the kitchen sink just to avoid argentina.
 

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I highly doubt either team plays for a draw. Neither one is going to want to play Argentina.

I will be on Mexico - better team here.
 

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this game is a total draw..u west coast guys dont need to wake up and watch this one.

516 Draw (Uruguay (World Cup) vs Mexico (World Cup)) -123* vs Uruguay (World Cup)
 

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URU+0 now -110. I won't be betting this one, got a great scalp, now rooting for a scoreless tie and if I bet that game, I probably would go with URU clean sheet (+136 at betfair right now)
 

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I understand the argument for not wanting to play Argentina but teams are more concerned about advancing to the knockout stage then positioning to play a weaker squad. Even then it would keep them on the left side of the bracket with England possible up next in the quarters then potentially Netherlands or Brazil in the semi's.
 

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Either way hopefully its an entertaining game. I went with the draw but if Mexico wins it won't be a total loss as my neighbors will have the beer flowing all day/night. :)
 

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Uruguay is amazing and looks like they will get great draw in couple first games of elimination round. If nothing major happens, they'll play South Korea first and will be the favorite.
 

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