Yesterday 0 0 0 0.00 Units Last 30 Days 42 50 1 +3.34 Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 103 132 2 -14.40 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
NY METS +1.21 over Detroit
The Tigers are very warm at the moment and that has its stock higher than it’s been all year. Thing is, they’re beating up on some sad pitching staffs that include the Pirates, Nats and D-Backs. Truth be told, the Tigers are a very mediocre ballclub that can be wagered against with great confidence. The fact that they’re favored in New York against the Mets is not right at all. No doubt that Justin Verlander is a quality pitcher and is the Tigers ace. However, he’s pitched at least seven full innings in seven straight starts and his pitch count over that stretch is as follows: 119, 116, 117, 114, 112, 105, 116. Prior to that he had pitch counts of 118, 121, 120 and 125. The last time he threw under 100 pitches was on April 11, his second start of the year. It does not matter whom you are, that mileage on his arm in a half a season has to take its toll at some point. His last six starts have been against Washington, Pittsburgh, KC, Oakland, Seattle and Oakland again so his numbers over that stretch are definitely skewed. The Mets are playing great ball despite losing its last two. Playing the Yanks can do that to a team. Prior to that they had won 12 of 13 and the best part of that is they’re scoring plenty of runs. Jonathan Niese has tremendous numbers over his last three starts. In those three starts in June, his BAA is .188. His ERA is 1.57 and he’s walked just three batters in 23 innings. His numbers on the year are also very good but one bad inning against Washington and a rough, rain-shortened outing the week before that have made those numbers look ordinary when in fact, Niese is anything but. The Mets are 24-10 at home and they’re a pooch here? Overlay. Play: NY Mets +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO –1.03 over St. Louis
That genius Tony LaRussa has a real problem here. The problem is, who is he going to bat eighth? Anyway, what we have here is the most overrated team in baseball, the Cards, playing on the road against a tough lefthander. The Cards are dead last in the NL against southpaws with a combined .234 BA. Jamie Garcia has been terrific with a 1.59 ERA and a BAA of .212. Things could change drastically for Garcia in parks that are not friendly to pitchers and the Rogers Center certainly qualifies. Garcia has thrived on ground balls but an 88% strand rate is unsustainable and you must wonder how many innings are in Garcia's arm coming off Tommy John surgery. LaRussa was watching his pitch count closely in all of his early starts this season but he’s been over 100 pitches in three straight starts and both his walks and hits allowed have been increasing. A blow-up is very likely forthcoming and this could be the day. Brett Cecil ranks fourth in the AL with a 1.03 WHIP. The Jays have won six of his last seven starts and he has a BAA of just .215. The Blue Jays are undervalued here because they’re playing a team that is almost always overvalued and thus, we’ll lay the tiny price on them. Play: Toronto –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Kansas City +1.10 over WASHINGTON
Anthony Lerew made a splash in his 2010 Royals debut with a dominant outing vs. Houston. Lerew was off to an effective start at Triple-A Omaha before he was recalled and in the short run, could continue to baffle hitters who have never seen him. In that start against the Astros he struck out seven. Even if Lerew gets lit up for a few runs the chances of Luis Atilano getting lit up for more is greater. In 60 innings thus far, Atilano has walked 25 and struck out 25. He has a 5.56 ERA at home and this month is BAA is .316. Atilano has shown little reason to think things will improve or that he's anything more than a placeholder until the Nats find another option. A strong-hitting AL squad taking back a price against Atilano is very worthy of a wager. In fact, one could definitely make a case for the Royals chances of winning being much stronger than the home sides’ chances. Play: Kansas City +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
NY METS +1.21 over Detroit
The Tigers are very warm at the moment and that has its stock higher than it’s been all year. Thing is, they’re beating up on some sad pitching staffs that include the Pirates, Nats and D-Backs. Truth be told, the Tigers are a very mediocre ballclub that can be wagered against with great confidence. The fact that they’re favored in New York against the Mets is not right at all. No doubt that Justin Verlander is a quality pitcher and is the Tigers ace. However, he’s pitched at least seven full innings in seven straight starts and his pitch count over that stretch is as follows: 119, 116, 117, 114, 112, 105, 116. Prior to that he had pitch counts of 118, 121, 120 and 125. The last time he threw under 100 pitches was on April 11, his second start of the year. It does not matter whom you are, that mileage on his arm in a half a season has to take its toll at some point. His last six starts have been against Washington, Pittsburgh, KC, Oakland, Seattle and Oakland again so his numbers over that stretch are definitely skewed. The Mets are playing great ball despite losing its last two. Playing the Yanks can do that to a team. Prior to that they had won 12 of 13 and the best part of that is they’re scoring plenty of runs. Jonathan Niese has tremendous numbers over his last three starts. In those three starts in June, his BAA is .188. His ERA is 1.57 and he’s walked just three batters in 23 innings. His numbers on the year are also very good but one bad inning against Washington and a rough, rain-shortened outing the week before that have made those numbers look ordinary when in fact, Niese is anything but. The Mets are 24-10 at home and they’re a pooch here? Overlay. Play: NY Mets +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO –1.03 over St. Louis
That genius Tony LaRussa has a real problem here. The problem is, who is he going to bat eighth? Anyway, what we have here is the most overrated team in baseball, the Cards, playing on the road against a tough lefthander. The Cards are dead last in the NL against southpaws with a combined .234 BA. Jamie Garcia has been terrific with a 1.59 ERA and a BAA of .212. Things could change drastically for Garcia in parks that are not friendly to pitchers and the Rogers Center certainly qualifies. Garcia has thrived on ground balls but an 88% strand rate is unsustainable and you must wonder how many innings are in Garcia's arm coming off Tommy John surgery. LaRussa was watching his pitch count closely in all of his early starts this season but he’s been over 100 pitches in three straight starts and both his walks and hits allowed have been increasing. A blow-up is very likely forthcoming and this could be the day. Brett Cecil ranks fourth in the AL with a 1.03 WHIP. The Jays have won six of his last seven starts and he has a BAA of just .215. The Blue Jays are undervalued here because they’re playing a team that is almost always overvalued and thus, we’ll lay the tiny price on them. Play: Toronto –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Kansas City +1.10 over WASHINGTON
Anthony Lerew made a splash in his 2010 Royals debut with a dominant outing vs. Houston. Lerew was off to an effective start at Triple-A Omaha before he was recalled and in the short run, could continue to baffle hitters who have never seen him. In that start against the Astros he struck out seven. Even if Lerew gets lit up for a few runs the chances of Luis Atilano getting lit up for more is greater. In 60 innings thus far, Atilano has walked 25 and struck out 25. He has a 5.56 ERA at home and this month is BAA is .316. Atilano has shown little reason to think things will improve or that he's anything more than a placeholder until the Nats find another option. A strong-hitting AL squad taking back a price against Atilano is very worthy of a wager. In fact, one could definitely make a case for the Royals chances of winning being much stronger than the home sides’ chances. Play: Kansas City +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
