Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.64 Units Last 30 Days 42 50 1 +1.38 Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 104 134 2 -16.04 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOUSTON +1.10 over San Francisco
Despite the Giants being the Astros daddy, the value here is most definitely on the home team. San Fran has beaten Houston nine straight and that includes the first seven games this season. However, the Astros are a much better team vs southpaws, as they’re just a game under .500 and will face a familiar one here in Barry Zito. Zito has faced the Astros twice this year and beat them twice but the first one was back in early April and the next one was in mid-May. Since then, the Astros offense has been much better while Zito has not. Zito had a rough May and in his last three starts against a trio of struggling offenses (Cincinnati, Oakland and Toronto), his ERA was 4.35 with an xERA of 5.54. Meanwhile, Brett Myers has been rock solid all season and has pitched at least six full innings in every one of his 14 starts thus far. He’s allowed just one jack over his last six starts and has a home ERA of 2.89. The Astros have to be sick of losing to this intruder and there’s no denying that with Zito on the hill the Giants are very beatable. This is a tough park to play defense in and the Giants “D” leaves plenty to be desired. The Giants have a catcher playing 1B, a DH playing LF and a 1B playing RF, not to mention a couple of water buffalos(Aubrey Huff) in right and (Burrell) in left. Play: Houston +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.63 over TEXAS (1st 5 innings)
Since this is based solely on the starters, the play here is the Pirates in five. They actually have a great chance to be leading after five when you consider that they’re facing Dustin Nippert and his .429 BAA in the month of June. Nippert has a WHIP of 1.89, a career WHIP of 1.61 and anytime a pitcher’s WHIP is that high he’s in big danger of getting rocked. Nippert has very little chance at success even against this foe. The Pirates outhit the Rangers last night 10-7 and while they have a brutal record they also have a lot of great looking young talent. Enter Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez is the Pirates' top prospect and he joins Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, and Jose Tabata as young regulars who could and should serve as the organization's next position player four-man core. Not to mention Garrett Jones and Ryan Doumit, and younger players who have yet to perform, like Jeff Clement, Lastings Milledge, and Delwyn Young. So, this team is not as inept as advertised and don’t think they’re not dangerous because they are. The Rangers are not as strong against lefties and Paul Maholm always seems to manage to keep the Pirates in the game. Thus, at this price against Nippert, the Pirates are very worthy of some consideration. Play: Pittsburgh +1.63 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO +1.02 over Atlanta
Tim Hudson (27 BPV, 0-5-2-4-4 PQS) has gone to the mound 13 times since his season debut on Apr. 9. On 12 of those occasions, he’s started the game with an ERA in the twos. That ERA is currently sitting at 2.34. It all looks good on paper but the fact is Hudson’s xERA is over 4.00 (4.08), and he’s getting by with a hit/strand profile (23%/82%) that indicates worse days ahead. Chicago’s offense doesn’t scare off many people, but they are having a decent June (.748 OPS) and have hit much better at US Cellular (.746 OPS) than on the road (.688). Mark Buehrle (49 BPV, 0-2-0-4-5 PQS) was lit up from late April to early June. In his last two starts, the lefty has pitched well (13 SO, 1 BB, 2 ER in 14 IP) and there’s good reason to believe that will continue here. You see, the Braves struggle on the road (.713 OPS vs. .807 home) and against lefties (.681 OPS, 13th NL). And for what it’s worth, Beuhrle historically pitches at or near his best in the middle third of the season (June-July). It’s also worth noting that the South Side is red-hot at the moment, they torched Tommy Hanson last night and they’re 35-16 in their last 51 interleague games. Play: Chicago +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +1.02 over St. Louis
There are three games today that look like sucker bets and we’re going against two of them. It would appear that the public will be all over the Cards, Reds and Braves today, as all three are cheap prices and with Hudson, Cueto and Carpenter going, three established pitchers with all kinds of wagering support this season, that trio will take a lot of money today. Don’t be surprised if all three lose. Carpenter has faced a lot of weak hitting line-ups this year and while the Jays team BA is weak, they’re still capable of scoring runs, especially at home, where its OPS is 100 points better than on road (.813 compared to .713). The opposite is true for the Cards. St. Louis has been solid at home but on the road they’re just 16-19. Then there’s Ricky Romero at the Rogers Center. In 48 IP at home, Romero has allowed a sick 26 hits for a BAA of .163. His groundball rate at home is an even sicker 65% and the Cards BA on the road against lefties is dead last in the NL. Over his last three starts at home, Romero has pitched two complete games and in the other one against the Yanks he went eight full. Over that stretch covering 26 frames, he allowed 16 hits and three runs. Play: Toronto +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOUSTON +1.10 over San Francisco
Despite the Giants being the Astros daddy, the value here is most definitely on the home team. San Fran has beaten Houston nine straight and that includes the first seven games this season. However, the Astros are a much better team vs southpaws, as they’re just a game under .500 and will face a familiar one here in Barry Zito. Zito has faced the Astros twice this year and beat them twice but the first one was back in early April and the next one was in mid-May. Since then, the Astros offense has been much better while Zito has not. Zito had a rough May and in his last three starts against a trio of struggling offenses (Cincinnati, Oakland and Toronto), his ERA was 4.35 with an xERA of 5.54. Meanwhile, Brett Myers has been rock solid all season and has pitched at least six full innings in every one of his 14 starts thus far. He’s allowed just one jack over his last six starts and has a home ERA of 2.89. The Astros have to be sick of losing to this intruder and there’s no denying that with Zito on the hill the Giants are very beatable. This is a tough park to play defense in and the Giants “D” leaves plenty to be desired. The Giants have a catcher playing 1B, a DH playing LF and a 1B playing RF, not to mention a couple of water buffalos(Aubrey Huff) in right and (Burrell) in left. Play: Houston +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +1.63 over TEXAS (1st 5 innings)
Since this is based solely on the starters, the play here is the Pirates in five. They actually have a great chance to be leading after five when you consider that they’re facing Dustin Nippert and his .429 BAA in the month of June. Nippert has a WHIP of 1.89, a career WHIP of 1.61 and anytime a pitcher’s WHIP is that high he’s in big danger of getting rocked. Nippert has very little chance at success even against this foe. The Pirates outhit the Rangers last night 10-7 and while they have a brutal record they also have a lot of great looking young talent. Enter Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez is the Pirates' top prospect and he joins Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, and Jose Tabata as young regulars who could and should serve as the organization's next position player four-man core. Not to mention Garrett Jones and Ryan Doumit, and younger players who have yet to perform, like Jeff Clement, Lastings Milledge, and Delwyn Young. So, this team is not as inept as advertised and don’t think they’re not dangerous because they are. The Rangers are not as strong against lefties and Paul Maholm always seems to manage to keep the Pirates in the game. Thus, at this price against Nippert, the Pirates are very worthy of some consideration. Play: Pittsburgh +1.63 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO +1.02 over Atlanta
Tim Hudson (27 BPV, 0-5-2-4-4 PQS) has gone to the mound 13 times since his season debut on Apr. 9. On 12 of those occasions, he’s started the game with an ERA in the twos. That ERA is currently sitting at 2.34. It all looks good on paper but the fact is Hudson’s xERA is over 4.00 (4.08), and he’s getting by with a hit/strand profile (23%/82%) that indicates worse days ahead. Chicago’s offense doesn’t scare off many people, but they are having a decent June (.748 OPS) and have hit much better at US Cellular (.746 OPS) than on the road (.688). Mark Buehrle (49 BPV, 0-2-0-4-5 PQS) was lit up from late April to early June. In his last two starts, the lefty has pitched well (13 SO, 1 BB, 2 ER in 14 IP) and there’s good reason to believe that will continue here. You see, the Braves struggle on the road (.713 OPS vs. .807 home) and against lefties (.681 OPS, 13th NL). And for what it’s worth, Beuhrle historically pitches at or near his best in the middle third of the season (June-July). It’s also worth noting that the South Side is red-hot at the moment, they torched Tommy Hanson last night and they’re 35-16 in their last 51 interleague games. Play: Chicago +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +1.02 over St. Louis
There are three games today that look like sucker bets and we’re going against two of them. It would appear that the public will be all over the Cards, Reds and Braves today, as all three are cheap prices and with Hudson, Cueto and Carpenter going, three established pitchers with all kinds of wagering support this season, that trio will take a lot of money today. Don’t be surprised if all three lose. Carpenter has faced a lot of weak hitting line-ups this year and while the Jays team BA is weak, they’re still capable of scoring runs, especially at home, where its OPS is 100 points better than on road (.813 compared to .713). The opposite is true for the Cards. St. Louis has been solid at home but on the road they’re just 16-19. Then there’s Ricky Romero at the Rogers Center. In 48 IP at home, Romero has allowed a sick 26 hits for a BAA of .163. His groundball rate at home is an even sicker 65% and the Cards BA on the road against lefties is dead last in the NL. Over his last three starts at home, Romero has pitched two complete games and in the other one against the Yanks he went eight full. Over that stretch covering 26 frames, he allowed 16 hits and three runs. Play: Toronto +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
