I'll go with the following bets for tomorrow:
Paraguay clean sheet (NZL under 0.5 goals) -125:
PAR has shown some really solid defensive efforts vs Italy and Slovakia and NZL should be the weakest opponent offensively. NZL scored in both games so far, but the 1st one came 3min into extra time, the 2nd one was scored after a foul wasn't called vs NZL and the goal was then scored from a player standing offsides. Besides these two goals NZL hadn't really many scoring opportunities.
Paraguay needs at least a draw to advance, so they will have to show up tomorrow and won't be playing their substitutes.
Denmark/Japan Under 2.25 goals -105:
Japan needs a tie or win to advance, Denmark needs to win. Japans defense has been very solid so far, they didn't allow many scoring opportunities to the Netherlands and their inside defenders are very good in the air and very physical, so they should match up nicely against Bendtner. Japan also played a very good team defense: When the Netherlands took the ball into the Japanese half, JAP almost always created situations, where they had more defenders in the area of the ball than their opponent and shifted nicely. They are also in a really good shape and can go their high pace for 90min.
Denmark has also a solid defense and has struggled to score consistently over the last 1 to 1.5 years. Japan also is anything but an offensive force, they lack some playmaking skills and create rather few scoring opportunities.
JAP will always look to keep their organised defensive line and make sure, that their defenders don't get to far up the to open up any rooms for Denmark. If Denmark will take the lead, they will play very defensively themselves and rely on counter attacks because in that case (lead vs JAP) they would advance.
So in other words: We actually get a game of two solid defensive teams, who struggle offensively and we probably have one team, that will just try to defend at all costs for the whole 90min.
Netherlands to win to nil/with clean sheet +204:
NED might play some substitutes, but guys like Elia or Huntelaar won't be a downgrade compared to van der Vaart or van Persie after watching these guys play so far. They will also be motivated to show a good game, so that they might get into the starting formation in the elimination round. Cameroon is horrible defensively. Their goalie is weak and they have some of the worst spacing I've seen in quite a while. In almost every single game you can see them get surprised by a deep pass because they don't hold their position and their opponent uses that lack of discipline to get behind their defensive line.
They are too often unorganised and a team like NED feasts on teams like that, who open up room to circulate the ball. Defensively NED is playing some very good team defense and CAM already struggled to create good scoring opportunities vs a good organised defense like JAP.
