Peter Schiff and Europac Question?

TheWolf · Jun 23, 2010

Guys, I've been following Schiff for the last couple of months and I fine him with a lot of valid points. I even started looking into his Europac investment company.

I have a 403B retirement plan that has not made me a single dime in 12 years. Got in in 1998 and had a good year or two then for the past decade essentially nothing. The forecasts I've read said buy and hold mutual fund days are probably over & will not show any high returns in the next decade. I plan on retiring in 15-20 years and I am now concerned about things as my first 12 years have netted essentially nada. I was thinking of rolling my money in here into an IRA with Europac.

What do you guys think about Schiff? How about Europac? Anyone invest there?
All thoughts and opinions are welcomed. Thanks.

DeathEatsaCracker · Jun 24, 2010

I read his book "Crash Proof". Schiff nailed the real estate and stock market bubbles and the collapse of Fannie and Freddie. Yet, somehow, his clients still lost 60-80% after the crash. Why? Because he completely blew the call on deflation, through the roof gold prices, and the Chinese "decoupling" and starting to buy their own products and phasing out or at least greatly reducing exports. A lot of people have lost a lot of money with Schiff. He talks a good game on TV, but I wouldn't trust this fucker with a dime of my money.

tiznow · Jun 24, 2010

like DEAC says he put and has too many eggs in the hyperinflationary/china gonna boom basket

under deflatation he gets hurt just as badly as everybody else

if you looking for somebody to trust in the money management game i'd go with hussman

www.hussman.net

he's not a permabear he just actually understands this is a big one

and hedges his long holdings using overall market shorts

so in times like this (when he thinks the markets are overvalued and good probability of a plundge) his fund will go up if his individual picks do better than the overall markets

fairly boring investment but he's weathered the storm well since fund inception since 2002 very well

http://www.hussman.net/pdf/hstperf.pdf

he gives weekly updates/rants and guys is spot on IMO

tiznow · Jun 24, 2010

err..wrong chart

here's his performance of his strategic growth fund he manages

http://www.hussman.net/pdf/hstperf.pdf

117% gain since 2000

i mean if the gloom and doom is over he will underperform

and likely will underperform during boom periods in general as he's a conservative value guy

but in times like this he'll do way better than the S&P and such

also note his gross expense ratio is 1.09%

that's one thing i absolutely hate about the mutual fund game

you don't realize how much you are giving to them over the long haul with the expense ratios

but hussman has one of the lowest in the mutual fund game

DeathEatsaCracker · Jun 24, 2010

tiznow said:
if you looking for somebody to trust in the money management game i'd go with hussman

Seconded.

SmallDaddy · Jun 24, 2010

Why not do it yourself?

Invest in stocks with high yields.

Take your picks from telecom, energy, utility and drug companies.

Cigarette companies and MLPs pay sick dividends

tiznow · Jun 24, 2010

there is something to be said for saying here's my stash make me some money.....some people just don't wanna deal with it or don't have a clue how to handle their investments....its pretty ridiculous how fiscally retarded the average american is

problem is most people hand their money to crooks

for anybody in that situation hussman is a great guy to entrust seems like an outstanding guy that's sharp as a tack.....one of the few honest guys out there these days....that isn't looking to nickel and dime you......is looking at things long term from a valuation standpoint and not looking to make quotas from this quarter to next to make his fund look good etc.....

and he's not the type of guy that is gonna have kneejerk reactions and go heavy short etc....and get whipsawed around or anything he has a long term approach to things as far as the overall long term market cycles

basically at times such as this where he feels a plundge is coming he just moves into fully hedged mode like he is now

where the daily fluctuations are based on how his longs do vs. the overall market....if they outperform the overall market (including go down less than the overall markets) he'll make some money

today for instance his longs outperformed the overall market by 0.15% so generally speaking his holdings went down 1.53% but due to hedges he made a few bucks

HuskerFan1 · Jun 24, 2010

how can you say he lost 60-80% after the crash? that an absurd statement to make. thats like people who bought gold back in 1980 at 800 and watched it fall to 250...timing is everything....

schiff has ACKNOWLEDGED himself that yes his gold stocks fell 50/60/70/80% from the highs (the dow also went from 14k to 6500 (or close to that) so once again if you bought in right at the top you got crushed....what about the clients who stuck with him and kept buying gold stocks like SVM when they went to $2bucks and HL when it was a buck and have seen them rise by 100's of %'s from those crazy lows...that doesnt count?

what about the fact he has been the BIGGEST gold bug on the planet and was touting gold at $250oz and its gone up year after year for a decade....and oil which he was touting at like $25/30 a barrel and thats tripled....i know those dont count either LOL....ya if you bought oil at 150 your ass is sore but you cant pick the high and say well if you listened to him at 140 oil your down 50%....its not fair to do comparisons like that

fwiw i am not a europac client i do my own investing but i listen to him and others here and im doing OK....im firmly entrenched in the gold bugs camp and think thats where you should put a lot of your money

HuskerFan1 · Jun 24, 2010

here, peter saying at 1:15 0% chance i will BE WRONG over time LOL....love him...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDg8VBpn5dM

tiznow · Jun 24, 2010

in this environment (gloom and doom but not hyperinflationary...and more likely moderately deflationary) you want to be heavy in the real stuff vs. the paper stuff

as far as gold is concerned

that's where shiff gets in trouble

paper gold hasn't done much of anything since 2006 other than major volatile noise

but gold has done extremely well since 2006

he might be right eventually

but if hyperinflation is coming to the states its still years away

the people who say there is zero percent chance they are wrong you typically never want to listen too

one should deal in probabilities with their investments not thinking they are mr. know it alls

that's what seperates a hussman from a shiff

hussman deals in probabilities and positions himself accordingly

HuskerFan1 · Jun 24, 2010

peter owns gold bullion for himself and for his clients....he is in the process of opening europac precious metals and previously touted the perth mint to hold his clients physical gold...

tiznow · Jun 24, 2010

the general point is if you are someone like wolf looking to protect your stash and at least make something as well in this environment husmman probably your best bet

with shiff if he's wrong you gonna lose your shirt

with hussman if he's wrong in his fully hedged position and we ramp from here for some reason

he won't lose anything unless his longs under perform the markets he just wont' participate much in the rally

i mean if on the small chance we reach an armaggedon point where the whole system implodes in a hyperinflationary collapse

you are gonna want gold under your mattress not holdings of his europac fund

obviously its good to have some gold holdings in this environment as well....but i'm still of the opinion that now isn't the time to be moving in.....wait for the dips.....long term bull markets always have decent sized dips/corrections....and gold has throughout its bull......

tiznow · Jun 24, 2010

basically what i'm saying with all my ramblings

is you much better off holding gold (the real stuff not the paper miner stuff) than going with shiff's fund if you think shiff's ramblings have a chance of playing out

hell i think we could see 1:1 gold:dow that he's call for....but if dow goes to 3k or something his fund will get hurt that's the problem....he's banking too much on gold and global equities skying zimbabwe style

and even if we have some pretty hefty deflation gold should do just fine although it might get hurt somewhat on the near term

TheWolf · Jun 24, 2010

Thanks for the info on Europac & Hussman. I will look into Hussman, but honestly, I really don't know what to do.
I dabbled in stocks myself about 11-12 years ago and made a few bucks, but I dont have the time now.
Ive recently bought a little silver and would love to buy some gold but that ship has already set sail on its journey without me.
What do you guys recommend? Sit tight in my 403B? Move it into an IRA with another company like hussman, or something else?

TheWolf · Jun 24, 2010

One last thing.............my 403B is currently a guided portfolio service, meaning someone controls this acct for me. If you say stick with this, should I manage it myself? If so, where do I begin looking on what mutual funds to buy? Thanks.

tiznow · Jun 24, 2010

i wouldn't be heavily exposed to equities on the long side (of any kind) right now would be my main recommendation

flippin' your 403b to money market/treasury fund or something like that to protect your stash till you figure out what u want to do would be my main suggestion

there will be a buying opp/dip in gold down the road and i think it will be coming soon

sub 1100 IMO is a good zone to start adding positions

maybe i'm wrong we'll see

i have no clue what options you have in a 403b

but if i had to guess flippin' to an IRA will give you a ton more options so would be worthwhile to do IMO

some hussman, some gold (accumulating down the road if you don't have any already), some treasuries, some money market holdings, and some large cap blue chip stocks paying a good divy and have low debt in "shit people need" like say food (general mills) would be my call for those with significant retirement holdings lookin' to weather the storm

tiznow · Jun 25, 2010

i'm not the type of guy to trust one person or one sector or whatever when you are talking large chunks of money

but with hussman he's the one guy i'd make an exception for

if you just flat out dont' want to worry about any of this i'd send him a pretty hefty chunk

the thing is right now this isn't a type of market you can buy and hold pretty much anything

like if we get a humongous dip in the coming year and get to very undervalued levels or something you will be wanting to get pretty heavily long equities....if that happens i'm sure hussman will remove his hedges and go to full exposure on the long side of his holdings.....

the days of buy and hold ended in 2000 for the most part

we entered a secular bear at that point...average lifespan 17 years....so we probably got another 7 years of a shit storm to get throuugh based on averages....

secular bear or secular bull i think hussman will do you well although he might underperform in secular bull.....but we really have no data for him on that end of things....but based on how he talks and such i think he will get agressive on the long side when the time is right and we do reach those very undervalued levels i think we will reach some day.......chances are he might be early but give him 10+ years to work with your money he will do you well IMO regardless of what type of market we in......he's not somebody to flip in and out of as he is taking a long term approach to things

DeathEatsaCracker · Jun 25, 2010

HuskerFan1 said:
how can you say he lost 60-80% after the crash? that an absurd statement to make.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/116694-peter-schiff-s-euro-pacific-capital-down-40-70-in-2008

DeathEatsaCracker · Jun 25, 2010

And here is a Schiff interview at the beginning of 2009 where he makes some predictions. Predictions, no doubt, that he bases his investment strategy on. He was wrong on every single prediction. This guy is a fucking hack and anyone who takes investment advice from him is a goddamn fool.

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs...f-right-on-the-crisis-wrong-on-investing.html

How about some predictions?

• I think the stock market is headed lower. Gold is going to be $1,200 to $1,500 by the end of the year. That puts the Dow at a less-than-10-to-1 price ratio to gold. Right now, it's about 13 to 1. That's another 30 percent drop in the real value of stocks by the end of the year if you price them in gold. The Dow was worth 43 ounces of gold in 2000. It'll get to 10 by the end of the year and continue to fall from there.

• Oil prices had a pretty big run and might not make more headway by the end of the year. But we could see $150 to $200 next year. I don't think oil will hit $250 because there will be enough destruction of demand in the United States to keep it from doubling. The big problem for us is if the Chinese substantially allow their currency to rise. It could increase at least fivefold against the dollar over the span of a year or two. That reduces the price of oil by 80 percent for 1.3 billion Chinese. Consumption would go through the roof, and that will drive prices through the roof for us.

• At a minimum, the dollar will lose another 40 to 50 percent of its value. I'm confident that by next year we'll see more aggressive movements to abandon the dollar by the [Persian] Gulf region and by the Asian bloc. That's where the stuff really hits the fan.

tiznow · Jun 25, 2010

to be fair even hussman got caught with his pants down to some extent (wasn't fully hedged) on the late 2008 to early 2009 crash

but the guy isn't gonna be right at all times

but it was just a blip and wasn't anywhere near shiff's dump....

what i would like to see is what's shiff's performances from 2000 till now the length of the current secular bear

but regardless the problem with shiff

is if you pile into him prior to major deflation hitting (and i think the risk is high right now) you are gonna get your ass handed to you

the volatility of his holdings are way way higher than they are with hussman

anyway i'll stop blowing hussman LOL

but i really think this guy will be a big name in money management game 20-30 years from now when people look back and see his performance from 2000 on....

Peter Schiff and Europac Question?

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