Yesterday 2 2 0 +0.24 Units Last 30 Days 43 51 1 +1.28 Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 106 136 2 -15.80 Units
TAMPA BAY –1½ +1.24 over San Diego
Note the 12:10 PM EST start. Make no mistake about it, Wade LeBlanc is one of the top three luckiest pitchers in the game and there is just no way he can sustain an ERA of 2.88 when he’s no better than guys like Joe Blanton (6.96 ERA) or Wandy Rodriguez (6.09 ERA) and the proof is there. First his BAA against is a pedestrian .283 and that comes after pitching 48 of his 68 IP this year at Petco Park. In four starts this month covering 25 frames, LeBlanc has walked 9 and struck out 13 so he’s not fooling anyone. On the season he has a GB rate of just 38% (Blanton’s is 43% and Rodriguez’s is 47.4%) and most notably, he has a strand rate of 83.7% and that especially cannot last. All this contributes to an xERA of 4.87, which is two runs higher than his current ERA. The disparity between the two is extreme. This guy is an imposter and his charmed life could get ugly against this talented offense. Also note that the Rays are not in a good mood after losing the first two games of this series. Matt Garza is having an off year but he’s as fierce as a competitor as there is. He called his last start the lowest point in his career after allowing seven runs in 1.1 frames and you know he and the whole team will be a little extra juiced today. Lastly, this is a noon start and the Padres routine will certainly be disrupted, as it’s something they’re not accustomed to. Play: Tampa Bay –1½ +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO –1.02 over Atlanta
Note the 2:05 PM EST start. The South Side is one of the hottest teams in the league and Derek Lowe is one of the most overvalued pitchers in the league. That combo makes the White Sox very worthy of some consideration here. Remember, Lowe is 37-years-old and the wear and tear on his arm is beginning to show after throwing over 2200 career innings. On the road this season he’s been torched to the tune of 45 hits and 26 runs in 38 IP for a BAA of .298, an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.72. Lowe is a two-pitch pitcher and if his splitter isn’t working or he’s not hitting his spots he has no chance at all. No pitcher can fool these White Sox, as they remain the most patient team in the league at the plate. Meanwhile, Gavin Floyd has had seven strong starts in his last eight games. His three-month xERA has been falling and his BPV (see bottom of this page for explanation of BPV and PQS) during May and June is 94 and 91 respectively. The Braves had numerous chances last night to deliver but failed miserably and that frustration has a way of carrying over. In addition, the South Side continue to beat up on its NL counterparts with 36 wins in the last 52 games. Play: Chicago –1.02 (Risking 2 .04 units to win 2).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +1.38 over Minnesota
Note the 2:05 PM EST start. Nick Blackburn (14 BPV, 3-0-0-5-0 PQS) has not pitched past the fourth inning in three of the last four starts. The season has gone from bad to worse, highlighted by a 12.00 ERA in June. His road ERA on the year is 9.09 and now he’ll face a confident and very warm Brewers offense. Also note that Blackburn has just 24 lousy k’s in 76 frames and a BAA of .337. This guy should take public transportation to the park this afternoon so that he can get used to riding buses. Meanwhile, Yovani Gallardo (85 BPV,5-3-5-5-5 PQS) has pitched brilliantly in 14 of his 15 starts this year. He’s one of the best in the business but does not get the recognition he deserves. Gallardo has 104 k’s in 93 frames, a .221 BAA and an ERA of 1.54 over his last five starts with a BAA of .176. He’s allowed just five bombs all year. The Brewers won the first two games of this series with unfavorable pitching match-ups and now they get a very favorable one. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
TAMPA BAY –1½ +1.24 over San Diego
Note the 12:10 PM EST start. Make no mistake about it, Wade LeBlanc is one of the top three luckiest pitchers in the game and there is just no way he can sustain an ERA of 2.88 when he’s no better than guys like Joe Blanton (6.96 ERA) or Wandy Rodriguez (6.09 ERA) and the proof is there. First his BAA against is a pedestrian .283 and that comes after pitching 48 of his 68 IP this year at Petco Park. In four starts this month covering 25 frames, LeBlanc has walked 9 and struck out 13 so he’s not fooling anyone. On the season he has a GB rate of just 38% (Blanton’s is 43% and Rodriguez’s is 47.4%) and most notably, he has a strand rate of 83.7% and that especially cannot last. All this contributes to an xERA of 4.87, which is two runs higher than his current ERA. The disparity between the two is extreme. This guy is an imposter and his charmed life could get ugly against this talented offense. Also note that the Rays are not in a good mood after losing the first two games of this series. Matt Garza is having an off year but he’s as fierce as a competitor as there is. He called his last start the lowest point in his career after allowing seven runs in 1.1 frames and you know he and the whole team will be a little extra juiced today. Lastly, this is a noon start and the Padres routine will certainly be disrupted, as it’s something they’re not accustomed to. Play: Tampa Bay –1½ +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO –1.02 over Atlanta
Note the 2:05 PM EST start. The South Side is one of the hottest teams in the league and Derek Lowe is one of the most overvalued pitchers in the league. That combo makes the White Sox very worthy of some consideration here. Remember, Lowe is 37-years-old and the wear and tear on his arm is beginning to show after throwing over 2200 career innings. On the road this season he’s been torched to the tune of 45 hits and 26 runs in 38 IP for a BAA of .298, an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.72. Lowe is a two-pitch pitcher and if his splitter isn’t working or he’s not hitting his spots he has no chance at all. No pitcher can fool these White Sox, as they remain the most patient team in the league at the plate. Meanwhile, Gavin Floyd has had seven strong starts in his last eight games. His three-month xERA has been falling and his BPV (see bottom of this page for explanation of BPV and PQS) during May and June is 94 and 91 respectively. The Braves had numerous chances last night to deliver but failed miserably and that frustration has a way of carrying over. In addition, the South Side continue to beat up on its NL counterparts with 36 wins in the last 52 games. Play: Chicago –1.02 (Risking 2 .04 units to win 2).
MILWAUKEE –1½ +1.38 over Minnesota
Note the 2:05 PM EST start. Nick Blackburn (14 BPV, 3-0-0-5-0 PQS) has not pitched past the fourth inning in three of the last four starts. The season has gone from bad to worse, highlighted by a 12.00 ERA in June. His road ERA on the year is 9.09 and now he’ll face a confident and very warm Brewers offense. Also note that Blackburn has just 24 lousy k’s in 76 frames and a BAA of .337. This guy should take public transportation to the park this afternoon so that he can get used to riding buses. Meanwhile, Yovani Gallardo (85 BPV,5-3-5-5-5 PQS) has pitched brilliantly in 14 of his 15 starts this year. He’s one of the best in the business but does not get the recognition he deserves. Gallardo has 104 k’s in 93 frames, a .221 BAA and an ERA of 1.54 over his last five starts with a BAA of .176. He’s allowed just five bombs all year. The Brewers won the first two games of this series with unfavorable pitching match-ups and now they get a very favorable one. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
