Careful. It appears the oddsmakers are taking a different approach tonight. If they keep setting Baltimore's opponent as -200, then everyone will take the run line against them. Tonight's match-up favors Florida in many ways, but the line does not represent that in any way. The way Millwood has been pitching lately has been awful:
Kevin Milwood last 5 starts:
28.2 IP
44 Hits
27 Earned Runs
9 HR's
13 BB
22 K's
The number that stands out there is, obviously, his ERA, which is up around 9.00 in those games. And that over plays the fact that he has given up 9 HR's in 5 short starts.
Nate Robertson, on the other hand, has been pitching very well in his last 5 starts. His K/BB ratio is great, which is 3/1. He has been limiting his opponents to fewer hits, other than his outing @ the Mets, during NYM's hot streak. Florida is fresh off of the firing of their Manager, and got a come from behind win in last nights game @ Baltimore. Baltimore's Bullpen is also sub-par, with just as many saves as blown saves. Ignore the Baltimore hitters vs. Nate Robertson statistics, which Baltimore is hitting a combined .313 against him, as this basically took place in the 2008 season, when Robertson's season ERA was 6.35. In 2007 Robertson's season ERA was 4.76, which included dominance of Baltimore, throwing 14.0 IP vs. them and only allowing 2 earned runs in those 2 games (in 2007). Robertson did not face Baltimore in 2009, and this is his first start against them in 2010.
Another note: Florida has their 9 best hitters in the line-up tonight, in terms of BA.
Why is this line Florida -115?
Two minor details that point towards Baltimore:
1. Florida going for a road sweep
2. Statfox Featured Tip:
Play On
All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE)
with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season-NL
35-14 since 1997.
71.4% (21.9 units)
Kevin Milwood last 5 starts:
28.2 IP
44 Hits
27 Earned Runs
9 HR's
13 BB
22 K's
The number that stands out there is, obviously, his ERA, which is up around 9.00 in those games. And that over plays the fact that he has given up 9 HR's in 5 short starts.
Nate Robertson, on the other hand, has been pitching very well in his last 5 starts. His K/BB ratio is great, which is 3/1. He has been limiting his opponents to fewer hits, other than his outing @ the Mets, during NYM's hot streak. Florida is fresh off of the firing of their Manager, and got a come from behind win in last nights game @ Baltimore. Baltimore's Bullpen is also sub-par, with just as many saves as blown saves. Ignore the Baltimore hitters vs. Nate Robertson statistics, which Baltimore is hitting a combined .313 against him, as this basically took place in the 2008 season, when Robertson's season ERA was 6.35. In 2007 Robertson's season ERA was 4.76, which included dominance of Baltimore, throwing 14.0 IP vs. them and only allowing 2 earned runs in those 2 games (in 2007). Robertson did not face Baltimore in 2009, and this is his first start against them in 2010.
Another note: Florida has their 9 best hitters in the line-up tonight, in terms of BA.
Why is this line Florida -115?
Two minor details that point towards Baltimore:
1. Florida going for a road sweep
2. Statfox Featured Tip:
Play On
All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE)
with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season-NL
35-14 since 1997.
71.4% (21.9 units)
