Tour starts on July 3 so now would be a good time to see if there are any mistakes out there. I will give my thoughts regarding who I think will be the main contestants in a few days but obviously odds on Contador, Andy Schleck and Armstrong would be of interest to everyone. I would be surprised if Contador has odds much better than even Money.
This year's race will tend to give the top climbers an even bigger advantage than normal. Why ? This year's race includes only one individual time trial and more climbs than usual. There is no question that this year's Tour plays right into the hands of great climbers like Contador and Andy Schleck. Of course it is well documented that Lance was always one of the greatest climbers ever and the Mountains was always where Lance would secure his 7 straight Tour victories. Lance always excelled in the individual time trials also. The big question now is whether Lance at his age can still keep up with the younger great climbers like Contador and Andy Schleck. I have some 12/1 on Andy Schleck that I purchased in February and I am looking to buy some odds on Contador who I think will be the eventual winner.
Kermit, good to see you're back for another TdF. I also think this year might be another Contador victory. But I thought I might look at some long shots. 5dimes has Frank Schleck at 40-1. He showed great form winnnig the tour of suisse. With all the other favorites marking his brother Andy's moves, he might be able to slip away on a mountain stage. He looke ok on that last ITT in the TOS, but with only 1 ITT that should help him as well. Maybe one of the Luquigas guys? Or an extreme USA long shot VDV. Good luck with it this year. Keep us posted.
Andy just took a nasty spill today ! I'm not sure if there will be any problems but since I have Andy at 12/1 which is no longer available, I did not welcome the news. Janez Brajkovic was a very impressive newcomer to team Radio Shack and adds some much needed youth and climbing ability to the team. VDV is once again injured and recently had surgery so it's not even sure He'll be in the Tour but He certainly will not be in top shape and whoever wins this year's Tour will have to be in top shape to beat the likes of Contador and the Schlecks... not to mention Lance. Frank Schleck might be a good long shot for the reasons you gave but just be sure you have enough $$ on Contador to cover your ventures. Contador proved to me when He out sprinted Janez Brajkovic at the top of L'Alpe D' Huez that He should be the big favorite and He currently is !
To me there was a bigger story on Alpe D' Huez than Contador crossing the line first and getting the same time as Brajkovic. I thought that Brajkovic was more concenred with putting time in everyone else than the stage win. He took longer pulls toward the end which set Condator up nicely for the stage win. The more important thing to me was that Brajkovic stay with Contador whenever he put in big attacks up the mountain. It seems like the last 2 years whenever he has decided to go, no one could match his acceleration skywards. Don't get me wrong, I still think he is the overwhelming favorite, but that stage my just give the other contenders a little more confidence heading into the Tour.
Perhaps your perception of that race might be more accurate than mine but that remains to be seen. My read is that Contador has already said that the goal this year for him is winning the Tour De France. To me He really had no intention of besting Brajkovic lead in the overall standing. However He did show me and the rest of the World that He still is the best climber. The best chance of beating Contador lies in him making a mistake as He is clearly the best IMHO. Some say that He just might be better than Armstrong was in his prime but We'll never really know about that as Lance is well past his prime. I see this year as possibly Lance's last Tour but let us never forget what an incredible Cyclist He was and still is !
The best addition to the Radio Shack team of course has to be the young and talented Janez Barjkovic. He will be a huge factor in the Mountains and that is where the race will once again be won or lost. We have not talked about the battle for the Green Jersey which is always an interesting side bar which is awarded to the Tour's top Sprinter. Mark Cavendish is regarded as the fastest rider in the World and I agree. However last year Thor Hushovd edged him out for the title. This year Cavendish has encountered a number of problems on and off the bike. However I still consider him the best and I will be looking to win some $$ once again on wagering on some stage wins for him. the way these sprinters finsihed in a mad rush at the finish line always causes worries about Tour ending injuries however. The race strts next Saturday early so We'll get serious in a few more days. I will be heading to the Casinos here in Las Vegas this weekend to see if I can find some decent Contador odds. If none is available, it is always best to wait until He might look beatable. I can remember wagering on Lance and getting some great plus $$ when the novices thought someone had a insurmountable lead. As We know, Lance could make up a lot of time in the Mountains as can Contador !
Why we are on the subject, does anyone know of an online sportsbook that offers more betting cycling options than just a TDF future winner for US based customers? It would be nice to find one with live betting, but the ones that take US customers aren't that up on cycling betting.
I was out on the town checking Las Vegas to see if I could come up with any Casinos that may be posting odds on the Tour. Negayive ! Not a single Casino had anything posted on the Tour. The M manager said He might later in the week. I really can't figure out why nobody seems to enjoy wagering on the Tour. Perhaps here in the USA the live TV broadcast are so early in the day. Here in Vegas the races start very early and are over by 8 AM or so. Let me know if you find any online books that offer daily props. I am quite certain I was wagering on Sportsbetting.com last year and they had odds on daily stage winners etc.
Lance Armstrong has just confirmed that this will be his last Tour. I really don't see how this will change any of my opinions on the outcome of the race. I have already said that Lance is far past his prime and I will wager accordingly. Contador is a monster and a clear favorite IMHO. I think Andy Schleck is a good bet to get a podium spot and Brad Wiggins is also a threat ! Race starts Saturday but the real race will start much later IMHO
I am not really buying into the Cavendish weakness bit ! This guy has been the best and I will not be wagering against him until I see a good chance to cash. The Tour oftens brings out the best in the great ones and Cavendish is still by far the best sprinter IMHO. We shall see how it plays out. The cobblestones are one of the factors that could cause a mistake by Contador. I look for Contador to be very aware of the danger and to race accordingly.
Contador knows that the race is his if He can avoid mistakes as the mountains will offer him plenty of time to catch whoever might take the early lead. I hope somene takes a huge early lead and offers some decent odds on the real favorites. Of course if the huge early lead is Wiggins, Schleck, Armstrong etc... then We have a ballgame ! I am really looking forward to the start this Saturday. More later
