Really like the Reds tonight

One might be hesitant to lay this much chalk (-175 to -180 depending on where you look), but to me all signs point to the Reds winning this one rather easily.

First off, they're facing Aaron Laffey who has been terrible the past year and a half. His K:BB is exactly 1.0 and in 20 1/3 IP in the minors in four starts after being demoted earlier this year, it was a very bad 9:15. Granted, he only allowed one long ball down in Columbus, but his FIP still came out to 5.17. I expect those numbers to lead to a lot of men on base for Cincinnati.

Second, Aaron Harang is better than his ERA might lead you to believe. His K:BB is right around where it has been his whole career and his ground ball rate is actually way up compared to the past couple of years. Lastly, he's sporting a below-league average strand rate and an above-league average BABIP. He's been getting a little unlucky, and facing a poor hitting team like Cleveland should lead to that luck turning around.

Lastly, the Reds offense is still really good. They're third in wOBA and have only fallen asleep this past week and a half due to who they have faced. During their "slumber" they had the unfortunate task of having to face these guys:

Cliff Lee
Felix Hernandez
Clayton Kershaw
Hiroki Kuroda
Zack Greinke

All within the last week and a half. Pretty hard to muster up much against those guys. Yes, Ryan-Rowland Smith did find a way to shut them down, but the Reds were still able to get 8 hits+walks, so I'll chalk that one up as an exception, not the rule. They managed to come more alive when facing lesser pitchers earlier this week in Oakland.


Over all, Cincy looks like a real solid pick. BOL.

put in rl last night

On it -1 265/200 bol to us

I think you are right but being from Cleveland I know they are sheisty. Half of their wins come from games they have no business even being in!! If they weren't playing the Tribe would you ever back Harang?? Good luck but for my money the over is the play!!

Love the write up. The thing that I would have to say is I made a good bit of money this year backing fresh pitchers getting moved up to the majors. I usually say that fresh arms and trying to prove that moving them up was the right move out ways tired bats. However saying that you have convinced me on this one. Reds are back home after long road trip and had the day off yesterday. I think they get the bats up to. Clevland had to travel yesterday after a rain delayed beat down. Now we just have hope Harang continues what he has done his last few starts. Good Luck!!!!

honey said:

I think you are right but being from Cleveland I know they are sheisty. Half of their wins come from games they have no business even being in!! If they weren't playing the Tribe would you ever back Harang?? Good luck but for my money the over is the play!!

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I'm backing Harang more because of him facing Laffey combined with the Reds' solid O. If the Tribe was throwing Lincecum, I'm sure I'd lay off.

Well, this game definitely played out as planned. Harang was a little shaky first (though in the 2nd inning he got into a jam because of the sun and the ump blowing a strike 3 call), but ended up pitching a typical Harang game.

Laffey started off unusually strong, but his second go around through that line up, the Reds were able to hold off on his off-speed pitch down in the zone and work counts, leading to a big 4th inning off of him, and a big 5th inning off the bullpen.

Hopefully a lot of you were able to cash in on this one. I'm stoked I ended up the day 3-0 (CWS and KC). BOL to everyone out there today. If I see something I really like, I'll be sure to post my thoughts.


:money8: