One might be hesitant to lay this much chalk (-175 to -180 depending on where you look), but to me all signs point to the Reds winning this one rather easily.
First off, they're facing Aaron Laffey who has been terrible the past year and a half. His K:BB is exactly 1.0 and in 20 1/3 IP in the minors in four starts after being demoted earlier this year, it was a very bad 9:15. Granted, he only allowed one long ball down in Columbus, but his FIP still came out to 5.17. I expect those numbers to lead to a lot of men on base for Cincinnati.
Second, Aaron Harang is better than his ERA might lead you to believe. His K:BB is right around where it has been his whole career and his ground ball rate is actually way up compared to the past couple of years. Lastly, he's sporting a below-league average strand rate and an above-league average BABIP. He's been getting a little unlucky, and facing a poor hitting team like Cleveland should lead to that luck turning around.
Lastly, the Reds offense is still really good. They're third in wOBA and have only fallen asleep this past week and a half due to who they have faced. During their "slumber" they had the unfortunate task of having to face these guys:
Cliff Lee
Felix Hernandez
Clayton Kershaw
Hiroki Kuroda
Zack Greinke
All within the last week and a half. Pretty hard to muster up much against those guys. Yes, Ryan-Rowland Smith did find a way to shut them down, but the Reds were still able to get 8 hits+walks, so I'll chalk that one up as an exception, not the rule. They managed to come more alive when facing lesser pitchers earlier this week in Oakland.
Over all, Cincy looks like a real solid pick. BOL.
First off, they're facing Aaron Laffey who has been terrible the past year and a half. His K:BB is exactly 1.0 and in 20 1/3 IP in the minors in four starts after being demoted earlier this year, it was a very bad 9:15. Granted, he only allowed one long ball down in Columbus, but his FIP still came out to 5.17. I expect those numbers to lead to a lot of men on base for Cincinnati.
Second, Aaron Harang is better than his ERA might lead you to believe. His K:BB is right around where it has been his whole career and his ground ball rate is actually way up compared to the past couple of years. Lastly, he's sporting a below-league average strand rate and an above-league average BABIP. He's been getting a little unlucky, and facing a poor hitting team like Cleveland should lead to that luck turning around.
Lastly, the Reds offense is still really good. They're third in wOBA and have only fallen asleep this past week and a half due to who they have faced. During their "slumber" they had the unfortunate task of having to face these guys:
Cliff Lee
Felix Hernandez
Clayton Kershaw
Hiroki Kuroda
Zack Greinke
All within the last week and a half. Pretty hard to muster up much against those guys. Yes, Ryan-Rowland Smith did find a way to shut them down, but the Reds were still able to get 8 hits+walks, so I'll chalk that one up as an exception, not the rule. They managed to come more alive when facing lesser pitchers earlier this week in Oakland.
Over all, Cincy looks like a real solid pick. BOL.