Yesterday 3 0 0 +7.24 Units Last 30 Days 45 47 1 +14.48 Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 109 136 2 -8.56 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
CHICAGO –1½ +1.55 over Chicago There are lots of reasons to wager on the South Side here and there are no reasons to wager on the Cubbies. The South Side is red-hot with nine wins in a row and that includes a just completed three-game sweep over the then red-hot Braves. The Cubbies are coming off a series loss in Seattle in which they scored four times in three games. The Cubbies have just eight wins in its last 22 games and things surely don’t figure to get better here. Jake Peavy (78 BPV, PQS-3-3-4-5-5) has returned to prominence over the last 31 days with a 3.78 xERA, great command and a 104 BPV. Peavy was a dominant pitcher in the NL and he’s manhandled the Cubs over his career with a 2.72 ERA in nine lifetime starts. Carlos Zambrano is all over the map. He’s walking batters, he’s always in jams and he’s giving up way too many hits. His road ERA is 6.91 and in six lifetime starts at US Cellular Field, Zambrano has an ERA of 4.97 and that’s when he was great. He’s no longer in that category, as his skills have been on the decline for over two years now and they’re not getting better. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.55 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels –1½ +1.42 over COLORADO
After an exciting three-game set against the Red Sox in which all three games were very close right up to the final AB, the Rocks could suffer a major letdown in game one here. Colorado’s first problem is facing Jered Weaver. Weaver (139 BPV, PQS-5-5-4-5-5) is in the midst of an amazing run, capped off by a 7-inning, 2-hit, 11-strikeout outing last weekend. He’s now averaging 10.2 strikeouts per game in 2010 and that bodes well here against a Rockies team that already has three guys with over 50 strikeouts. At home Weaver has a 1.85 ERA and over his last three home starts he’s allowed one lousy earned run in 20 frames. Weaver has pitched his last four games on the road so you know he’ll be excited to be back at home. Jeff Francis has an impressive ERA since returning from his injury but don’t be fooled. He’s been anything but dominant and it just hasn’t shown up in his stats yet. His last game he was hit hard by the Brewers but only allowed three earned runs in 6.1 innings. In three prior starts he faced the offensively challenged Blue Jays, Giants and Astros, yet Francis still allowed eight runs in 19 innings. He has a BAA of .290 and that’s after facing some weak opposition. His BAA on the road is .302 so you can’t blame Coors for that. A big correction is coming for Francis and the bet is that it occurs here. Play: L.A. Angels –1½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.22 over NY METS
Does this line make sense at all? The oddsmakers do not make errors and you can double that when the game involves a New York based team so let’s see if we have this right. The Mets have won 14 of 16 games. The Twins have lost 5 of 7 and were just swept in Milwaukee. Mike Pelfrey is 9-2 with a 2.67 ERA and at home he’s 5-0 with a 1.87 ERA. Kevin Slowey is 0-1 with a 10.50 ERA in three interleague starts this season and his ERA over his last three starts is 8.10. Pelfrey’s BAA is 50 points lower than Slowey’s and Slowey has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts. It’s not easy to make a case for the Twinkies here and an attempt is not forthcoming. This choice is based on the fact that the oddsmakers made the Mets about as enticing as any game this season and it’s recommended that you wait until later in the day to make this wager, as this line will do exactly what it’s intended to do and that’s attract Met backers. Play: Minnesota +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY –1½ +1.46 over St. Louis
Frankly, I feel sick about not going against the Cardinals yesterday but what’s done is done. It’s worth reiterating that the Cardinals continue to be the most overvalued team in the business with an offense that scares nobody and a bullpen that is made up of guys picked up off the scrap heap. Enter Jeff Suppan, another scrap heap pitcher that Dave Duncan is going to try and work miracles with but not even Chris Angel could make this illusion work. Suppan has not made it out of the fifth inning in either of his first two starts for the Cards and the five home runs surrendered in his 4 starts this season (18 IP) continue to be problematic. Suppan’s opponent BAA is .353 and the Royals BA is tops in the AL at .280. Also note that the Royals had a day off yesterday after becoming the first team to beat Stephen Strasburgh so they have to be feeling pretty good. Zack Greinke (114 BPV, 3-4-3-4-5) has retained the skills if not the results from his Cy Young season. He'll look to continue a fantastic run in June (167 BPV) against a Cardinals team that scored one run combined in the final two games in Toronto. This is by far the biggest pitching mismatch of the day and finally Greinke can count on a ton of run support here. Play: Kansas City –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
CHICAGO –1½ +1.55 over Chicago There are lots of reasons to wager on the South Side here and there are no reasons to wager on the Cubbies. The South Side is red-hot with nine wins in a row and that includes a just completed three-game sweep over the then red-hot Braves. The Cubbies are coming off a series loss in Seattle in which they scored four times in three games. The Cubbies have just eight wins in its last 22 games and things surely don’t figure to get better here. Jake Peavy (78 BPV, PQS-3-3-4-5-5) has returned to prominence over the last 31 days with a 3.78 xERA, great command and a 104 BPV. Peavy was a dominant pitcher in the NL and he’s manhandled the Cubs over his career with a 2.72 ERA in nine lifetime starts. Carlos Zambrano is all over the map. He’s walking batters, he’s always in jams and he’s giving up way too many hits. His road ERA is 6.91 and in six lifetime starts at US Cellular Field, Zambrano has an ERA of 4.97 and that’s when he was great. He’s no longer in that category, as his skills have been on the decline for over two years now and they’re not getting better. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.55 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels –1½ +1.42 over COLORADO
After an exciting three-game set against the Red Sox in which all three games were very close right up to the final AB, the Rocks could suffer a major letdown in game one here. Colorado’s first problem is facing Jered Weaver. Weaver (139 BPV, PQS-5-5-4-5-5) is in the midst of an amazing run, capped off by a 7-inning, 2-hit, 11-strikeout outing last weekend. He’s now averaging 10.2 strikeouts per game in 2010 and that bodes well here against a Rockies team that already has three guys with over 50 strikeouts. At home Weaver has a 1.85 ERA and over his last three home starts he’s allowed one lousy earned run in 20 frames. Weaver has pitched his last four games on the road so you know he’ll be excited to be back at home. Jeff Francis has an impressive ERA since returning from his injury but don’t be fooled. He’s been anything but dominant and it just hasn’t shown up in his stats yet. His last game he was hit hard by the Brewers but only allowed three earned runs in 6.1 innings. In three prior starts he faced the offensively challenged Blue Jays, Giants and Astros, yet Francis still allowed eight runs in 19 innings. He has a BAA of .290 and that’s after facing some weak opposition. His BAA on the road is .302 so you can’t blame Coors for that. A big correction is coming for Francis and the bet is that it occurs here. Play: L.A. Angels –1½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.22 over NY METS
Does this line make sense at all? The oddsmakers do not make errors and you can double that when the game involves a New York based team so let’s see if we have this right. The Mets have won 14 of 16 games. The Twins have lost 5 of 7 and were just swept in Milwaukee. Mike Pelfrey is 9-2 with a 2.67 ERA and at home he’s 5-0 with a 1.87 ERA. Kevin Slowey is 0-1 with a 10.50 ERA in three interleague starts this season and his ERA over his last three starts is 8.10. Pelfrey’s BAA is 50 points lower than Slowey’s and Slowey has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts. It’s not easy to make a case for the Twinkies here and an attempt is not forthcoming. This choice is based on the fact that the oddsmakers made the Mets about as enticing as any game this season and it’s recommended that you wait until later in the day to make this wager, as this line will do exactly what it’s intended to do and that’s attract Met backers. Play: Minnesota +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY –1½ +1.46 over St. Louis
Frankly, I feel sick about not going against the Cardinals yesterday but what’s done is done. It’s worth reiterating that the Cardinals continue to be the most overvalued team in the business with an offense that scares nobody and a bullpen that is made up of guys picked up off the scrap heap. Enter Jeff Suppan, another scrap heap pitcher that Dave Duncan is going to try and work miracles with but not even Chris Angel could make this illusion work. Suppan has not made it out of the fifth inning in either of his first two starts for the Cards and the five home runs surrendered in his 4 starts this season (18 IP) continue to be problematic. Suppan’s opponent BAA is .353 and the Royals BA is tops in the AL at .280. Also note that the Royals had a day off yesterday after becoming the first team to beat Stephen Strasburgh so they have to be feeling pretty good. Zack Greinke (114 BPV, 3-4-3-4-5) has retained the skills if not the results from his Cy Young season. He'll look to continue a fantastic run in June (167 BPV) against a Cardinals team that scored one run combined in the final two games in Toronto. This is by far the biggest pitching mismatch of the day and finally Greinke can count on a ton of run support here. Play: Kansas City –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
hno:Slowey gets pounded!!
