Toronto +1.5 RL +120

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looks good to me:howdy:
 

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olim, if i may ask... what your current record for this season? and how well are you doing on the +1.5 RL?

tks.wui =)
 

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olim, if i may ask... what your current record for this season? and how well are you doing on the +1.5 RL?

tks.wui =)


pretty well....i don't track plays consistantly but the books consistantly send me money...
 

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love it Olim...bol, let's cash !!
 

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ML looks great as well
 

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gonna have to disagree on this one The doc and phills will show up and win this game by 2+runs they will make litsch work hard tnite.pitch count up early!! get to the bullpen...bol to you guys tho
 

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agree johnny i think the phils bats are waking up hope doc shuts his old team out looking for a 3 run plus win here
 

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Il have to third that...Phils win this one easy...and its personal for Doc.....
 

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You should be tracking everything.

- League (MLB, NCAAF, NFL, etc.)
- Play (team or player you are betting on)
- Line (+7, etc.)
- Price (+110, -150, etc.)
- Type (Spread, ML, Total, Prop, etc.)
- Sportsbook (5dimes, BetJamaica, etc.)
- Risk
- To win
- Result
 

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You should be tracking everything.

- League (MLB, NCAAF, NFL, etc.)
- Play (team or player you are betting on)
- Line (+7, etc.)
- Price (+110, -150, etc.)
- Type (Spread, ML, Total, Prop, etc.)
- Sportsbook (5dimes, BetJamaica, etc.)
- Risk
- To win
- Result

Edge
Expected growth/profit
 

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MLB
RL
Tor RL
+120
- Local
- not going to win
-Edge---Pinacle no-vig number is 114.5/-114.5....best +EV +120......


120/114.5 4.8% edge......

Bankroll 25k ......risk 1250k to win 1500k
 

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I bet most of you guys didn't even know that this game was played in Philadelphia because of the G20 Summit in Toronto. It was supposed to be in Toronto but everything around g20 summit is closed, so they moved the game to philly. Philly will share the revenue with Toronto. Since the game was supposed to happen in Toronto, you will see it listed as home game for Toronto everywhere, including sports books. So many bettors played Toronto thinking that they are big home dogs....they also put so much on Toronto for tomorrow with Marcum playing. Even though books have this game listed as home game for toronto, it is actually happening in philly....the whole series.
 

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Left it out because edge is the % my current bankroll that I risk to win.
Then you would need a current bankroll column, although this doesn't entirely work in calculating edge as line moves in your favor will cause you to make additional risk but with respect to the past wager amount.

Olim assuming probability of 114.5/-114.5 and a line of +120 your edge would be 2.56%.
 

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Edge is what you make of it. If you believe you have a 4.8% edge, then by all means bet to win 4.8% of your bankroll. However the answer you are probably trying to figure out how LGH's edge differs from yours and how does he get the number that he does. I'm sure he (like myself) uses this tool or something similar to determine edge. -114.5/+114.5 puts out a 2.56% edge, but -119/+110 (what Pinnacle's number closed at) punches out 2.75% on +120. The calculator works a little different for baseball seeing how the only option is totals, so just punch in Pinnacle's number atop any other league (for the most part, line doesn't matter just don't go above and beyond) your books numbers in the fave price / dog price white boxes and you should be able to find out the edge you have on Pinnacle's current no vig line.

After accumulating 2000% worth of edges your bankroll should double if you follow Kelly Criterion (the edge percentage) exactly. Also, don't limit yourself to baseball when the same theories can be applied to other sports. I don't know ANYTHING about tennis, but I do know that Pinnacle (to quote the sharpest sports bettor I've ever read) "is an efficient market and/or possesses a crystal ball" for bettors to follow. Alas, I am starting to win at another sport which conveniently happens to go on when there's nothing else to bet on and your bankroll is just sitting there screaming "make me larger".
 

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