Yesterday 2 2 0 +2.02 Units Last 30 Days 44 49 1 +9.60 Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 111 138 2 -6.54 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.26 over Toronto
The Jays are the “home team” here. Yeah, ok. This is a rare opportunity to play the true home team getting all nine at bats but chances are it won’t matter. The Jays are second last in the majors in team BA, just two lousy points ahead of the Astros. Over its last 20 games, the Jays are dead last with a team BA of .217, 14 points worse than the Mariners and 25 points worse than the Astros. The Jays have also lost four of its last five games and they’ve been shutout in two of its last three. The Jays numbers are even worse against lefties and they’ll face one here in Cole Hamels. Hamels is not pitching good, he’s pitching great. He’s gone nine straight starts without allowing more than three earned runs in any of them. That includes two games against the Red Sox, not to mention games in Minnesota, at New York against the Mets, at Atlanta and three games at home in this very difficult hitter’s park. Hamels has a BAA in June of .183 and overall he’s struck out 85 batters in 86.1 innings. Shaun Marcum is having a good year but he’s on the verge of an implosion. His last two games he threw against San Fran and San Diego and didn’t look sharp but got by. Previously, he allowed 10 hits in both back-to-back games against the Rays. In four June starts his BAA is .300 and after missing all of last year, his arm is beginning to show real signs of wear and tear. He looked exhausted in his last start against the Giants in which he threw 102 pitches in five innings. The Phillies offense has woke up big time with 27 runs in its last three games and that’s big time bad news for Marcum. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.22 over L.A. ANGELS
Joe Saunders has one foot in the grave and it’s not going to be long before we never see him again. There's just no good news here in terms of his skills, as almost every indicator is in freefall. Following his pre-season trend to a "T," his control and ability to get batters out has gotten simultaneously worse. He's walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Saunders xERA has finally imploded to well over the 5.00 mark and hit rate is not to blame. Going into 2010, Saunders at least had a strong groundball profile. That has evaporated in the first three months, as line-drive and FB rates have risen. Saunders is 1-6 at home with an ERA of 6.75 and behind him is a bullpen that is among the worst in the business. Given a list of all the pitchers in the majors to lay juice with, Joe Saunders would be very near the bottom of that list. Aaron Cook will not dazzle anyone but he keeps the ball down and usually keeps the Rocks in the game. Cook has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts and is coming off a sweet, seven-inning, three hit gem against the Brew Crew. Anyway, this is more about playing against Saunders than anything else, as his skills and confidence continue to deteriorate at a high pace. Play: Colorado +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.11 over ATLANTA
Sometimes, that little trip back to the minors works wonders. After a horrible first eight starts punched his ticket back to Triple-A, Max Scherzer has been lights-out upon his recall at the end of May. Though a small sample size applies, the Scherzer sign says "buy". Just before his demotion, he wasn’t striking out many. He then fanned a cool 14 in his first start back, and has barely slowed down since. The sparkling numbers since 5/30 show the results. But it's not all Ks. His control has remained consistent; hr/9 has been reined back in and a normalized stand % has led this resurgence. Scherzer’s xERA and BPV since 5/30 are numbers to get excited about again. Scherzer won't be able to maintain this pace, but with 4 PQS-dominant scores in his last five starts, his rebirth looks legit. The best news? That inflated 5.67 year-to-date ERA make Scherzer a very undervalued pitcher and thus we get a bigger take-back than we should. Young pitchers are never a sure thing, but Scherzer's trends and history showcase his stuff that points positive for the balance of 2010. Kenshin Kawakami remains winless through nine decisions. His 4.67 xERA is nearly identical to the 4.78 ERA, as his skills remain pedestrian at best. Kawakami is heading to the bullpen as soon as Jair Jurrjens returns and he can’t wait to get there. Play: Detroit +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.22 over NY METS
It's bad enough that Johan Santana had to respond this week to a report that he was accused of sexual battery in October 2009. Now, despite an ERA in the low 3.00's, Santana's 2010 performance is not nearly as good as the surface stats suggest. As the saying goes, "Where there's smoke there's fire". Lest we forget, Santana did have elbow surgery last season (bone chips), which was a big red flag entering the 2010 season. Last season's surgery isn't the only red flag surrounding Santana. That ERA (3.31) is still pretty sexy until you look at the xERA hiding behind it (4.69). Santana’s strikeout rate is decreasing while his walks are increasing. In fact, over his last three games he’s walked seven and struck out just five. Two of those three games were against the Indians and Padres. Furthermore, he allowed four runs in all three of those aforementioned games. Now he’ll pitch with less confidence and as mentioned earlier, where there’s smoke there’s fire. Meanwhile, Carl Pavano has been lights out for weeks. He’s coming off a gem against the Phillies and he’s breezing through line-ups. In fact, Pavano has gone at least seven full innings in six straight games and only twice during that stretch has he threw more than 100 pitches. Pavano has pinpoint control as evidenced by his 14 walks issued in 96.1 frames. The Mets are hot and they’re tough to beat these days but Santana’s charmed life is on the verge of a meltdown and chances are good it starts right here. Play: Minnesota +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY +1.15 over St. Louis
Blake Hawksworth (45 BPV, -0- PQS) makes his second start of the season in his twenty-third appearance. Hawksworth's earlier start ended in disaster in which he allowed six earned runs in four innings. While Hawksworth has been hurt by an inflated 38% hit rate, the skills here are marginal (poor command and a 1.4 hr/9). He gets the start here because the Cardinals have absolutely nobody else to turn to and the fact that this poor reliever is favored as a starter is ludicrous. Throw in the fact that the Cards offense is stuck in neutral and the Royals are even more appealing. Yeah, Kyle Davies is going through a rough stretch and he’s never going to be anything but a four or five starter but at least he’s a starter. Furthermore, the Royals are still leading the majors with a .280 batting average and while they’re not scoring as much, they’re still getting tons of hits but just not stringing them together. They’re on the verge of an outburst and it could very well occur here. Play: Kansas City +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.26 over Toronto
The Jays are the “home team” here. Yeah, ok. This is a rare opportunity to play the true home team getting all nine at bats but chances are it won’t matter. The Jays are second last in the majors in team BA, just two lousy points ahead of the Astros. Over its last 20 games, the Jays are dead last with a team BA of .217, 14 points worse than the Mariners and 25 points worse than the Astros. The Jays have also lost four of its last five games and they’ve been shutout in two of its last three. The Jays numbers are even worse against lefties and they’ll face one here in Cole Hamels. Hamels is not pitching good, he’s pitching great. He’s gone nine straight starts without allowing more than three earned runs in any of them. That includes two games against the Red Sox, not to mention games in Minnesota, at New York against the Mets, at Atlanta and three games at home in this very difficult hitter’s park. Hamels has a BAA in June of .183 and overall he’s struck out 85 batters in 86.1 innings. Shaun Marcum is having a good year but he’s on the verge of an implosion. His last two games he threw against San Fran and San Diego and didn’t look sharp but got by. Previously, he allowed 10 hits in both back-to-back games against the Rays. In four June starts his BAA is .300 and after missing all of last year, his arm is beginning to show real signs of wear and tear. He looked exhausted in his last start against the Giants in which he threw 102 pitches in five innings. The Phillies offense has woke up big time with 27 runs in its last three games and that’s big time bad news for Marcum. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.22 over L.A. ANGELS
Joe Saunders has one foot in the grave and it’s not going to be long before we never see him again. There's just no good news here in terms of his skills, as almost every indicator is in freefall. Following his pre-season trend to a "T," his control and ability to get batters out has gotten simultaneously worse. He's walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Saunders xERA has finally imploded to well over the 5.00 mark and hit rate is not to blame. Going into 2010, Saunders at least had a strong groundball profile. That has evaporated in the first three months, as line-drive and FB rates have risen. Saunders is 1-6 at home with an ERA of 6.75 and behind him is a bullpen that is among the worst in the business. Given a list of all the pitchers in the majors to lay juice with, Joe Saunders would be very near the bottom of that list. Aaron Cook will not dazzle anyone but he keeps the ball down and usually keeps the Rocks in the game. Cook has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts and is coming off a sweet, seven-inning, three hit gem against the Brew Crew. Anyway, this is more about playing against Saunders than anything else, as his skills and confidence continue to deteriorate at a high pace. Play: Colorado +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +1.11 over ATLANTA
Sometimes, that little trip back to the minors works wonders. After a horrible first eight starts punched his ticket back to Triple-A, Max Scherzer has been lights-out upon his recall at the end of May. Though a small sample size applies, the Scherzer sign says "buy". Just before his demotion, he wasn’t striking out many. He then fanned a cool 14 in his first start back, and has barely slowed down since. The sparkling numbers since 5/30 show the results. But it's not all Ks. His control has remained consistent; hr/9 has been reined back in and a normalized stand % has led this resurgence. Scherzer’s xERA and BPV since 5/30 are numbers to get excited about again. Scherzer won't be able to maintain this pace, but with 4 PQS-dominant scores in his last five starts, his rebirth looks legit. The best news? That inflated 5.67 year-to-date ERA make Scherzer a very undervalued pitcher and thus we get a bigger take-back than we should. Young pitchers are never a sure thing, but Scherzer's trends and history showcase his stuff that points positive for the balance of 2010. Kenshin Kawakami remains winless through nine decisions. His 4.67 xERA is nearly identical to the 4.78 ERA, as his skills remain pedestrian at best. Kawakami is heading to the bullpen as soon as Jair Jurrjens returns and he can’t wait to get there. Play: Detroit +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.22 over NY METS
It's bad enough that Johan Santana had to respond this week to a report that he was accused of sexual battery in October 2009. Now, despite an ERA in the low 3.00's, Santana's 2010 performance is not nearly as good as the surface stats suggest. As the saying goes, "Where there's smoke there's fire". Lest we forget, Santana did have elbow surgery last season (bone chips), which was a big red flag entering the 2010 season. Last season's surgery isn't the only red flag surrounding Santana. That ERA (3.31) is still pretty sexy until you look at the xERA hiding behind it (4.69). Santana’s strikeout rate is decreasing while his walks are increasing. In fact, over his last three games he’s walked seven and struck out just five. Two of those three games were against the Indians and Padres. Furthermore, he allowed four runs in all three of those aforementioned games. Now he’ll pitch with less confidence and as mentioned earlier, where there’s smoke there’s fire. Meanwhile, Carl Pavano has been lights out for weeks. He’s coming off a gem against the Phillies and he’s breezing through line-ups. In fact, Pavano has gone at least seven full innings in six straight games and only twice during that stretch has he threw more than 100 pitches. Pavano has pinpoint control as evidenced by his 14 walks issued in 96.1 frames. The Mets are hot and they’re tough to beat these days but Santana’s charmed life is on the verge of a meltdown and chances are good it starts right here. Play: Minnesota +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY +1.15 over St. Louis
Blake Hawksworth (45 BPV, -0- PQS) makes his second start of the season in his twenty-third appearance. Hawksworth's earlier start ended in disaster in which he allowed six earned runs in four innings. While Hawksworth has been hurt by an inflated 38% hit rate, the skills here are marginal (poor command and a 1.4 hr/9). He gets the start here because the Cardinals have absolutely nobody else to turn to and the fact that this poor reliever is favored as a starter is ludicrous. Throw in the fact that the Cards offense is stuck in neutral and the Royals are even more appealing. Yeah, Kyle Davies is going through a rough stretch and he’s never going to be anything but a four or five starter but at least he’s a starter. Furthermore, the Royals are still leading the majors with a .280 batting average and while they’re not scoring as much, they’re still getting tons of hits but just not stringing them together. They’re on the verge of an outburst and it could very well occur here. Play: Kansas City +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
