Yesterday 1 4 0 -5.56 Units Last 30 Days 45 50 1 +10.04 Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 112 142 2 -12.10 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
San Diego +1.02 over FLORIDA
Matt Latos is wickedly good and any take-back on him against the struggling Marlins is a gift. In fact, since the start of May, Latos is 7-2 with a 1.92 ERA in 10 starts. He has allowed more than two runs in a game just once in that stretch. He has great control and command, as his 0.95 WHIP and 110 BPV will attest to. Latos has struck out 79 while walking just 22 over 86 innings and his BAA is a mere .191. In addition, the Marlins have scored just one run over the past 18 frames against the Padres. They have just one win in four games since firing its manager and that win came against the O’s. Annibal Sanchez’s 3.30 ERA is considerably lower than his 4.43 xERA. His BAA of .266 is 75 points higher than Latos’. Sanchez is trending downward and in fact, his numbers have been getting progressively worse with each passing start. In four June starts, his BAA is .298 with an ERA of 4.32 and in no way should he and the free-falling Fish be favored in this spot. Play: San Diego +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.12 over PHILADELPHIA
When you lay juice with Jamie Moyer you’re taking a huge risk because this guy can get lit up for a lot of runs very quickly. Despite a misleading 8-6 record, Moyer has an ERA of 4.43 and failed to get out of the second inning in a recent game against the Red Sox in which he allowed nine earned runs in one inning. He’s had back-to-back great starts and the chances of him having three solid starts in a row are slim at best. Current Blue Jay hitters are batting a combined .345 against Moyer in 145 career AB’s. It’s also worth noting that the Phillies are 1-7 against southpaws at home and will face a good one here in Brett Cecil. The Phillies have never seen Cecil and that has to work to his advantage. Cecil has good numbers right across the board that includes a .221 BAA, a 1.09 WHIP, 55 K’s and just 19 walks in 75 IP. Cecil has worked six or more innings in nine of 12 starts and he and the Jays offer up all the value in this game. Play: Toronto +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.14 over BALTIMORE
First, taking back a price against the O’s is never a bad idea. Secondly, Jeremy Guthrie is another one of these pitchers with decent surface stats but a close look at base skills tells a different story. Guthrie’s ERA has been rising now for four consecutive games. Eroding command says the damage isn't done, and spiking FB% confirms high hr/9 wasn't a fluke. Guthrie is also 0-5 with a 5.23 ERA over the past month and his last three starts have come against the Marlins, Giants and Mets, not exactly the cream of the crop. Meanwhile Luis Atilano is trending the other way. He was very shap in his last start against the Royals and has now allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts. Most importantly, he did not issue a single walk in his last outing and that has to do wonders for his confidence. Play: Washington +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
San Diego +1.02 over FLORIDA
Matt Latos is wickedly good and any take-back on him against the struggling Marlins is a gift. In fact, since the start of May, Latos is 7-2 with a 1.92 ERA in 10 starts. He has allowed more than two runs in a game just once in that stretch. He has great control and command, as his 0.95 WHIP and 110 BPV will attest to. Latos has struck out 79 while walking just 22 over 86 innings and his BAA is a mere .191. In addition, the Marlins have scored just one run over the past 18 frames against the Padres. They have just one win in four games since firing its manager and that win came against the O’s. Annibal Sanchez’s 3.30 ERA is considerably lower than his 4.43 xERA. His BAA of .266 is 75 points higher than Latos’. Sanchez is trending downward and in fact, his numbers have been getting progressively worse with each passing start. In four June starts, his BAA is .298 with an ERA of 4.32 and in no way should he and the free-falling Fish be favored in this spot. Play: San Diego +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.12 over PHILADELPHIA
When you lay juice with Jamie Moyer you’re taking a huge risk because this guy can get lit up for a lot of runs very quickly. Despite a misleading 8-6 record, Moyer has an ERA of 4.43 and failed to get out of the second inning in a recent game against the Red Sox in which he allowed nine earned runs in one inning. He’s had back-to-back great starts and the chances of him having three solid starts in a row are slim at best. Current Blue Jay hitters are batting a combined .345 against Moyer in 145 career AB’s. It’s also worth noting that the Phillies are 1-7 against southpaws at home and will face a good one here in Brett Cecil. The Phillies have never seen Cecil and that has to work to his advantage. Cecil has good numbers right across the board that includes a .221 BAA, a 1.09 WHIP, 55 K’s and just 19 walks in 75 IP. Cecil has worked six or more innings in nine of 12 starts and he and the Jays offer up all the value in this game. Play: Toronto +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Washington +1.14 over BALTIMORE
First, taking back a price against the O’s is never a bad idea. Secondly, Jeremy Guthrie is another one of these pitchers with decent surface stats but a close look at base skills tells a different story. Guthrie’s ERA has been rising now for four consecutive games. Eroding command says the damage isn't done, and spiking FB% confirms high hr/9 wasn't a fluke. Guthrie is also 0-5 with a 5.23 ERA over the past month and his last three starts have come against the Marlins, Giants and Mets, not exactly the cream of the crop. Meanwhile Luis Atilano is trending the other way. He was very shap in his last start against the Royals and has now allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts. Most importantly, he did not issue a single walk in his last outing and that has to do wonders for his confidence. Play: Washington +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
