Three today w/analysis

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Sep 21, 2004
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Yesterday 1 2 0 -1.96 Units Last 30 Days 43 52 1 -0.02 Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 113 144 2 -14.06 Units

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

Los Angeles +1.12 over SAN FRANCISCO
Very tough loss for the Dodgers last night when they blew a 4-run ninth inning lead against the Yanks but don’t expect them to be hanging their heads. A series against the hated Giants is always good for a little extra motivation and the Dodgers are the far superior team that is simply in a bit of a funk. Chad Billingsley comes off the DL after missing two weeks with a strained groin. He had turned his season around in May and was cruising until his last start vs. the Angels, during which he suffered the injury. The first start after an injury is always a mystery, but a 2.78 ERA on the road tips the scales in his favor and there’s no way the Dodgers would go to him if he wasn’t ready. Besides, the Giants are not exactly going good either. They’ve lost four of five, which includes a series loss to the Astros. One of those games against Houston, Barry Zito failed to get out of the fifth inning after allowing seven hits and five earned runs in four innings pitched. Zito has been the beneficiary of some weak opposition recently, with HOU, SD and OAK comprising five of his last nine starts. A rising FB% (53% in June) and hr/9 have made him an E-ticket (5.08 ERA) since mid-May and the fact that he’s a –1.19 favorite over the Dodgers and Billingsley is ludicrous. Play: Los Angeles +1.12 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh +1.73 over CHICAGO
It’s not easy to pull the trigger on the stumbling Pirates but the price makes it a little easier and so does the opposition. The Cubbies are a garbage team that should not be favored over anyone by this much when Randy Wells is on the hill. Wells hasn’t won a game since April and now you’re going to lay better than 9-5 with him? Since that last win on April 30, Wells has gone 0-6 with a 6.24 ERA. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in six innings of an 8-1 defeat to Seattle on Wednesday and that game was in Seattle. At home, Wells has a BAA of .315 and in June his BAA is .353 and in two starts vs the Pirates this year his ERA is 7.71. Yeah, the Pirates have lost something like 50 in a row on the road but they’ve beaten the Cubbies in seven of nine games this year and Paul Maholm has won two of those and posted a 3.00 ERA. The Pirates are not as bad as its record indicates and despite getting ripped apart, they’re at least getting some hits but have failed to string them together. Even in that 3-2 loss yesterday they outhit the A’s 8-3. Anyway, this one is all about taking back a stupid tag against Wells and the Cubbies and given this opportunity 100 times, this bet would be made 100 times. Big overlay. Play: Pittsburgh +1.73 (Risking 2 units).

Houston +1.65 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers remain warm with six wins in seven games but the offense started to sputter again vs Seattle and this is not a team to be trusted laying heavy juice. Bud Norris (71 BPV) is coming off the DL to make his first start since going down with biceps tendinitis on May 24. His stats are not good but don’t put too much into that since Norris was likely pitching hurt. Instead, let’s focus on a guy that struck out 54 batters in 43 innings. Also note that Norris pitched very well in his rehab assignment at Triple-A Round Rock and is very ready to resume play. Norris possesses wicked stuff and has had great success against these same Brewers in two starts last season, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.45 ERA, while striking out 15 in 11 IP. Manny Parra has pitched extremely well in June (23 IP, 3.52 ERA) and that has to be acknowledged. However, the current Astros have ripped him apart. In fact, current Astro batters are hitting a robust .361 off Parra with 30 hits in 83 career AB’s against him. Houston is a much-better team vs lefties, as its .500 record vs southpaws will attest to and they’re certainly way undervalued here. Play: Houston +1.65 (Risking 2 units).
 

aka...shdw03
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Jan 23, 2010
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bol sw
 

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Handicapper
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Jan 15, 2010
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I'm on all three plays, but on the other side of the PIT-CUBS, I'm on the Cubs GL with your other 2
 

New member
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Feb 10, 2008
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BOL sherwood :toast:

altho tuff to call an end to a road losing streak like Pitt's, which I believe stands at 17 consecutive, your analysis is excellent as always
 

New member
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Nov 23, 2005
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any thoughts on the over here sherwood? A lot of guys in cub lineup hit maholm real well.
 

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Sep 21, 2004
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I'm not a totals guy TK. I've never done well with them so I rarely play them. Perhaps 2 or 3 total plays all year. I find much more value on sides.
 

Bulldog Mentality
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Feb 9, 2010
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3-0 NICE JOB ... CONGRATS :toast::toast::toast:
 

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