two today w/analysis

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Sep 21, 2004
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Yesterday 3 0 0 +9.00 Units
Last 30 Days 44 49 1 +10.32 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 116 144 2 -5.06 Units

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Colorado +1.15 over SAN DIEGO
Great value here on Jason Hammel and the Rocks. Hammel has average surface stats but pay no attention to his 4.31 ERA and .285 BAA. He got off to a rough start before going on the DL for three weeks and his current form says everything is just fine. Hammel's string of good starts ended with his last outing vs. Boston but prior to that he threw 28.1 scoreless innings in a row and allowed just one run over 29.1 innings. Hammel’s ERA since his return from the DL on May 15 has dropped 3½ runs and that’s an outstanding number. Hammel is solidified now as a groundball pitcher and he has an elite BPV (112) over the past six weeks that nobody knows about (see explanation of BPV and PQS at the bottom of this page). His control has been good all year and he’s certainly one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Wade LeBlanc was an early season darling who blew up and then settled into the ho-hum pitcher that he really is. His 2.37 ERA in June is sweet but that’s largely based upon an unsustainable 88% strand rate. Leblanc is an average pitcher that’s short a plus pitch and in no way should he and the Padres be a –1.22 favorite over the far superior pitcher. Play: Colorado +1.15 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +1.87 over ATLANTA
After an exciting and intense pitcher’s duel for the first 6+ innings last night the Braves broke out in the seventh amidst some very shaky defense by the Nationals and ultimately put them away. Stephen Strasburgh was pitching, the joint was rocking and the game was televised nationally. This is a letdown spot for the Braves after that satisfying win and they could be very vulnerable here. Derek Lowe has been hit and miss all year and as a result, cannot be trusted as a huge favorite. His strikeouts are way down, his walks are up and he basically pitches to contact. Lowe has pitched terribly from the stretch this year. He also has shown a huge BPV decline during games. He starts off looking fantastic. First time through lineups: 118 BPV. His skills erode the second time through lineups (40 BPV) and they fall into a black hole after that. He has a –94 BPV, a 6.29 ERA and 1.89 WHIP the third time through lineups along with some ugly skills. Lowe has not faced the Nats this year but last season he went 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA and current Nats hitters have 225 combined AB’s against him and they’re batting a combined .302. Lowe is one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game and we’ll try to cash in on that here. Craig Stammen makes his first start since being demoted June 6 to clear a rotation spot for Stephen Strasburg. He had little trouble in the minors, going 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts and we’ve seen plenty of guys do well upon their return to the big club after a brief demotion. Anyway, this one is much more about playing against a hugely overvalued Lowe. Play: Washington +1.87 (Risking 2 units).

**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
 

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I hope so NYM, The big one is in the books so we're in pretty good shape.
 

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I really don't understand how the league hasn't figured Leblanc out yet. the guy has very under average stuff. he LIVES on the outside corner yet these hitters still try to pull the ball. makes no sense. still has not given up a hit tonight...
 

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awesome, just awesome picks............ couldn't pull the trigger on the nats but hit colorado big.........
keep em coming, ty
 

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