Yesterday 1-1-0 +0.46 Units
Last 30 Days 45-46-1 +20.48
Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 119-145-2 +1.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Cincinnati +1.32 over CHICAGO
Note the 2:20 PM start. Let’s see if we have this right. The Cubbies just lost a series to a Pirates team that had dropped 17 in a row on the road. Not only did they lose the series but the Cubbies scored a total of four runs in three games off the worst pitching staff in the majors. So, yeah, the Reds will turn to a rookie call-up making his first major league start and the Cubbies have its ace, Carlos Silva going but so what. Silva is having a great year but it could blow up at any time because this guy was a career stiff for the last seven years and this start was pushed back a couple of days because of a nagging hamstring injury. The Reds have also seen Silva twice and the last time they torched him to the tune of 10 hits in just five innings. As mentioned earlier, Travis Wood debuts. In 98 innings with AAA-Louisville this year, he has 97 Ks, 23 BBs, 3.03 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. After a phenomenal season in '09 (1.21 ERA in Double-A prior to a promotion to Triple-A), the 23 year-old struggled at the beginning of '10 before he turned it around. He's been sensational in the month of June. Wood isn't a dominator nor is he a flamethrower. His fastball sits between 87-91 mph, but he's developed an above average cutter to add to his already plus-plus changeup. The question remains as to whether this type of arsenal will succeed in the Majors. His polish and feel for pitching is off the charts, but his breaking ball is below average. Wood's changeup, however, may be one of the better ones in the minors. He uses the same arm speed as his fastball and it features late, diving action. Oh, one last thing. He’s not being asked to fool the Yanks or Red Sox here. The Reds are superior in every way, they’re coming off a series win against the Phillies and they’ve won seven of its last nine. The Cubbies are a beat up team right now both physically and mentally and in no way does this putrid host warrant being this high a price over the Reds. Play: Cincinnati +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND +1.41 over Toronto
Note the 12:05 PM EST start. The Blue Jays –1.50 on the road? Are you kidding? Yeah, Shaun Marcum is having a remarkable season but in order to win a baseball game you have to score runs and that’s something the Jays have not been able to do for weeks. Over the last week, Toronto has made Jamie Moyer, Jake Westbrook and Aaron Laffey look like Koufax, Gibson and Drysdale. The Jays have lost five of six and that includes three straight to these Indians. Marcum has some troubling monthly trends including falling BPV (107 April, 87 May, 77 June), rising xERA (3.41, 3.95, 4.46) and his command is falling off too. Remember, Marcum missed all of last year and we’re now into July, thus his durability comes into question and he’s most certainly trending downwards. Justin Masterson is 2-7 and his surface starts don’t look very good. However, he’s had some bad luck this year due to a 35% hit rate and 67% strand rate. Masterson’s xERA (3.80) is more than a run below his actual ERA (5.21) and that’s a good sign. Also note that he has 72 K’s in 86 frames and that he’s been better at home and what we have here is an undervalued pitcher vs an overvalued one and you also can’t ignore the fact that the Jays are reeling. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +2.15 over SAN DIEGO
The Astros are 17 games under .500 and that early season deep funk has left this team as perhaps the most undervalued in the business. The Astros are so much better than its record and while Brian Moehler is not to be trusted ever, Jon Garland as a better than 2-1 favorite is insane. Baseball is a funny game and every day we see examples of why laying juice constantly is bad strategy. Take for example, the Texas Rangers. They were and still are on a big roll. They recently went on a run of 13 wins in 14 games and the only pitcher that beat them over that stretch is none other than Brian Moehler. That game was in Texas and any pitcher in this league has the potential to have a great game at Petco Park. Anyway, the Astros are scoring runs these days and in fact are coming off a series win in Milwaukee in which they scored 19 runs in three games and that includes four runs in six innings over previously untouchable Yovani Gallardo. As for Jon Garland, well, year after year it's the same: 200 IP, mid-4's xERA, no K's, double-digit wins. Every year his first half is better than his second half and that teases us into thinking there may be more but there's never any more. The sea air of San Diego and Petco Field clearly agree with Garland. Thing is, his record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. He’s issuing a lot more walks than usual and while Garland has also struck out more and his ERA sure looks sweet, beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand % are making his season and anytime you can get anything close to this tag against him you should grab it. Play: Houston +2.15 (Risking 2 units).
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**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
Last 30 Days 45-46-1 +20.48
Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 119-145-2 +1.44 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Cincinnati +1.32 over CHICAGO
Note the 2:20 PM start. Let’s see if we have this right. The Cubbies just lost a series to a Pirates team that had dropped 17 in a row on the road. Not only did they lose the series but the Cubbies scored a total of four runs in three games off the worst pitching staff in the majors. So, yeah, the Reds will turn to a rookie call-up making his first major league start and the Cubbies have its ace, Carlos Silva going but so what. Silva is having a great year but it could blow up at any time because this guy was a career stiff for the last seven years and this start was pushed back a couple of days because of a nagging hamstring injury. The Reds have also seen Silva twice and the last time they torched him to the tune of 10 hits in just five innings. As mentioned earlier, Travis Wood debuts. In 98 innings with AAA-Louisville this year, he has 97 Ks, 23 BBs, 3.03 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. After a phenomenal season in '09 (1.21 ERA in Double-A prior to a promotion to Triple-A), the 23 year-old struggled at the beginning of '10 before he turned it around. He's been sensational in the month of June. Wood isn't a dominator nor is he a flamethrower. His fastball sits between 87-91 mph, but he's developed an above average cutter to add to his already plus-plus changeup. The question remains as to whether this type of arsenal will succeed in the Majors. His polish and feel for pitching is off the charts, but his breaking ball is below average. Wood's changeup, however, may be one of the better ones in the minors. He uses the same arm speed as his fastball and it features late, diving action. Oh, one last thing. He’s not being asked to fool the Yanks or Red Sox here. The Reds are superior in every way, they’re coming off a series win against the Phillies and they’ve won seven of its last nine. The Cubbies are a beat up team right now both physically and mentally and in no way does this putrid host warrant being this high a price over the Reds. Play: Cincinnati +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND +1.41 over Toronto
Note the 12:05 PM EST start. The Blue Jays –1.50 on the road? Are you kidding? Yeah, Shaun Marcum is having a remarkable season but in order to win a baseball game you have to score runs and that’s something the Jays have not been able to do for weeks. Over the last week, Toronto has made Jamie Moyer, Jake Westbrook and Aaron Laffey look like Koufax, Gibson and Drysdale. The Jays have lost five of six and that includes three straight to these Indians. Marcum has some troubling monthly trends including falling BPV (107 April, 87 May, 77 June), rising xERA (3.41, 3.95, 4.46) and his command is falling off too. Remember, Marcum missed all of last year and we’re now into July, thus his durability comes into question and he’s most certainly trending downwards. Justin Masterson is 2-7 and his surface starts don’t look very good. However, he’s had some bad luck this year due to a 35% hit rate and 67% strand rate. Masterson’s xERA (3.80) is more than a run below his actual ERA (5.21) and that’s a good sign. Also note that he has 72 K’s in 86 frames and that he’s been better at home and what we have here is an undervalued pitcher vs an overvalued one and you also can’t ignore the fact that the Jays are reeling. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +2.15 over SAN DIEGO
The Astros are 17 games under .500 and that early season deep funk has left this team as perhaps the most undervalued in the business. The Astros are so much better than its record and while Brian Moehler is not to be trusted ever, Jon Garland as a better than 2-1 favorite is insane. Baseball is a funny game and every day we see examples of why laying juice constantly is bad strategy. Take for example, the Texas Rangers. They were and still are on a big roll. They recently went on a run of 13 wins in 14 games and the only pitcher that beat them over that stretch is none other than Brian Moehler. That game was in Texas and any pitcher in this league has the potential to have a great game at Petco Park. Anyway, the Astros are scoring runs these days and in fact are coming off a series win in Milwaukee in which they scored 19 runs in three games and that includes four runs in six innings over previously untouchable Yovani Gallardo. As for Jon Garland, well, year after year it's the same: 200 IP, mid-4's xERA, no K's, double-digit wins. Every year his first half is better than his second half and that teases us into thinking there may be more but there's never any more. The sea air of San Diego and Petco Field clearly agree with Garland. Thing is, his record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. He’s issuing a lot more walks than usual and while Garland has also struck out more and his ERA sure looks sweet, beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand % are making his season and anytime you can get anything close to this tag against him you should grab it. Play: Houston +2.15 (Risking 2 units).
---------------------------------------------------------------------
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
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