MistaFlava's MLB Baseball Thursday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (July 1, 2010)

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Thursday, July 1



Cleveland Indians ML +137 (10 Units)

The public is going to jump all over the Blue Jays and their ace Shawn Marcum in this game with the ignorant perception that 'the Blue Jays won't be swept in Cleveland'. Well the last time I checked the same people would have never bet on Kerry Wood converting three straight saves in three straight nights and right now the Indians have won four straight games and are probably playing their best baseball of the season which is not saying much. Toronto is in some kind of funk right now and we've seen this song before. They always seem to play horrendous baseball in a series leading up to a trip to New York or Boston (they have the Yankees starting tomorrow) and Shawn Marcum has never beat the Indians. Marcum is 0-2 lifetime against Cleveland in four career starts and he has allowed 12 ER's in his last three road starts this season. Justin Masterson is not having the greatest of seasons but he is making his first career start against the Blue Jays and judging by other home starts against AL East teams, this could be one of his best. Masterson pitched a Complete Game two hit shutout at home against Boston on June 2 and I remember in April of 2009 he started home games against both Baltimore and the New York Yankees and won both while allowing only 2 ER's in both games combined. The Blue Jays have only 6 runs in this series in three games and they are batting .221 in their last 10 games overall. This is a great time to keep backing an Indians team that is playing with tons of confidence.

Trend of the Game: Toronto is 0-5 in their last five games as a favorite


Cleveland 5, Toronto 1





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GL Flava Flav




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YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He's back!!!!!!!!!! Time to make some money!!!!!!!!!!
 

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Chicago Cubs ML -134 (10 Units)

Seemingly these are two teams heading in completely different directions with the Reds sitting at nine games above .500 and the Cubs sitting at 10 games below the .500 mark but ironically enough the toughest part of the season is here and both teams could be on an even scale in only a matter of weeks. This is where the Cubs need to turn their season around and they get to do it against a rookie left handed pitcher Travis Wood making not only his first MLB start but his first MLB appearance. He was the second round pick of the Reds in 2005 and he's finally in the big leagues. The Reds are coming off a home series win over the Phillies while the Cubs are coming off a home series loss against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Having said that I will take my chances any day of the week on Carlos Silva to have a bounce back start. The Cubs have lost three straight when Silva pitches after going 10-1 in his first 11 starts of the season. The problem? His last three starts were against American League opponents and it doesn't take a genius to realize that he was horrendous as an AL starter with Minnesota and Seattle (5-18 as a starter for the Mariners and 47-45 as a starter for the Twins). So his recent losses to the White Sox and Angels are understandable. Silva is still 8-2 on the season, he's been tremendous against NL opponents and is 1-0 lifetime against the Reds. We don't know a lot about Travis Wood to predict how he will pitch but we do know that the Cubs are batting .301 at Wrigley versus Lefties in 2010. Silva should be 2-0 against the Reds this season but the bullpen blew his first start and allowed 4 runs in the 8th inning while Silva left with a 3-1 lead. The Cubs and Silva should get back on track with a win today.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 1-5 in their last six games in Chicago.


Chicago 8, Cincinnati 2





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Flava! Good to see you! I haven't logged on to the Forum; just reading....but once I saw your thread, I had to give some Aloha.
 

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New York Mets ML -126 (10 Units)

This is all about run support and can the Mets finally give their ace some love. I mean the Mets are probably the hottest hitting team in the National League right now with their .276 batting average over the course of the last 10 games where they have scored a whopping 50 runs in those games. The problem however is that Johan Santana made two starts during that span of 10 games but the Mets gave him a big fat 0 in terms of run support and that goes for both his starts. So having scored 15 runs in their series against the Marlins, can they finally hook Johan up with some cookies? I think so. The Nationals, no matter how well they are playing this season, are a team that Santana has always dominated in his career. He is 6-2 in eight career starts versus Washington with an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.17 in those games. Santana has been out of sorts since his rape accusations were made public and he has allowed at least 4 ER's in his last four starts (17 ER's in total in those four starts) but three of those starts were against AL opponents. In Santana's last four starts versus NL opponents on the road he has allowed only 2 ER's in 29.0 innings pitched but the Mets have scored only 4 runs for him in those four starts and they are 0-4 in those games. That's horrendous run support. In his career pitching against the Mets, Livan Hernandez has a losing record 12-13 and the Mets have batted .283 career against him. He did beat the Mets 5-3 at home earlier this season but the Mets bullpen blew that game for RA Dickey and I doubt we see a repeat performance of that with the Mets bullpen's 2.27 ERA over the course of their last 10 games. I think this is a great chance for the Mets to get back on track with their ace and for once provide him with more than 1-2 runs of support. It won't be pretty but Santana will look like his old self and the Mets will show him enough love to win this game.

Trend of the Game: Washington is 5-23 in their last 28 games as an underdog.


NY Mets 4, Washington 2





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Baltimore Orioles ML +134 (10 Units)

This is a tough one to figure out because you have two sub .500 teams sending promising young pitchers to the mound and both these teams are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They are both coming off series sweeps (the A's swept the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Orioles swept the Washington Nationals) and they have split the first two games of this series. Trevor Cahill is on the mound for Oakland today and he has arguably been their best starting pitcher all season going 7-2 on the season while the team is 9-3 in his 12 starts this season. Seems like a lock right? I mean Cahill is 2-1 lifetime in three career starts against Baltimore and he did beat them 6-1 here back near the end of May. Cahill has allowed 3 ER's only one time since his first start of the season making that 11 starts his season opening loss to the Blue Jays and only once has he allowed more than three earned runs in those games. That's what makes this game a bit fishy in my eyes and the line although it seems right, could be a bit too much right now. Baltimore's bats are on absolute fire right now as the team is batting .303 in the last 10 games overall and that could be a problem for Cahill. On the mound for the Orioles is a young Jake Arrieta who is making his fifth career start. So far, so good. He is 2-1 in his four starts, he beat the Yankees at home in his MLB debut a few weeks ago, then went to San Francisco and beat the Giants and was the starter when Baltimore beat Washington last week. He did lose in San Diego but the team is 3-1 in his four career starts (all in June). Arrieta won't last too long in this game but the bullpen should pick him up like they have in all his starts and the Orioles bullpen has an ERA of only 2.43 in their last 10 games now and that could be the difference here. Both teams are playing well right now, both teams have young pitchers on the mound but Baltimore is hotter right now and Arrieta seems to find a way to win games early in his career.

Trend of the Game: Oakland is 1-5 in Trevor Cahill's last six starts versus AL East opponents.


Baltimore 7, Oakland 4





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Minnesota Twins ML -116 (10 Units)

I like both pitchers because they have pitched so well at times this season but right now Tampa Bay has some issues and until they sort out those issues I find it very hard to back them against a team that is 25-14 at home this season. The Rays are at their best on the road and Jeff Niemann has not lost on the road this season but the Twins won the last two games of their series against Detroit and they seem to be getting back on track after a very rough road trip in Inter-League play that saw them get swept in Milwaukee and then lose two of three at the Mets. Niemann is 4-0 in seven road starts this season and he dominated the Twins last year in his only career start against Minnesota but I have my doubts here. Tampa Bay have lost six of their last nine games now and despite being 11-4 in Jeff Niemann's 15 starts this season, the Rays have lost two of his last three starts now. In his last road start against an American League opponent he allowed 5 ER's in Toronto. After not allowing more than 3 ER's in any of his first 10 starts of the season, Niemann has allowed 5 ER's twice in his last five starts. Minnesota is one of the top hitting teams in MLB and they are batting .290 at home against righties this season. Carl Pavano is 5-3 lifetime against Tampa Bay in 10 career starts and I just can't back the Rays right now seeing how they are batting .222 in their last 10 games. Pavano beat Colorado, Kansas City and Texas in his last three home starts and he also beat the White Sox a few weeks earlier. Minnesota has won four straight games when Pavano starts, four of their last five when he starts and Tampa Bay is struggling right now.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay is 0-6 in their last six games coming off a win.


Minnesota 6, Tampa Bay 2





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San Francisco Giants ML +138 (10 Units)

This is no doubt a trap game. You have a young 20 year old left handed pitcher on the mound for the Giants against a Rockies team that is 23-14 at home this season so how does this make any sense? The Rockies are coming off a series win in San Diego earlier this week but my problem with this team is their pitching and they allowed 22 runs in their three games against the Padres. The Giants have lost five straight games, they were swept by the rival Los Angeles Dodgers at home earlier this week and they are coming off a home stand that saw them go 1-5. The season series is tied at 3-3 between the Rockies and the Giants with all games being played in San Francisco but I really think this young kid Madison Bumgarner is going to have a much better outing than his first MLB start against the Red Sox. He was the 10th pick overall in the 2007 MLB Draft and this kid can dominate a lineup. Colorado is batting only .210 versus left handed pitchers in their last 10 games and only .252 against lefties this season. So back to that kid Bumgarner. He was obviously nervous in his first career start against Boston last week and it showed as he allowed two Home Runs in the first two innings of the game going down 4-0 early. However, after allowing the two Home Runs, Bumgarner pitched right through to end of the 7th inning and he allowed 0 ER's, 1 hit and managed to retire 15 of the 16 batters he faced in innings 3 to 7 which is pretty damn impressive as he struck out 5 batters and really dominated the Red Sox after a shaky start. Colorado struggles against lefties this season and I think the kid shows us what he is made of in this game. Aaron Cook is 7-10 in his career against San Francisco as the Giants have hit .303 against him in his career and the Rockies lost all five of his starts in June with his last win coming at the end of May against the Dodgers. Cook is struggling right now and he's definitely not worth this price against a future star pitcher for the Giants.

Trend of the Game: Colorado is 0-5 in Aaron Cook's last five starts.


San Francisco 11, Colorado 5





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Los Angeles Angels ML -128 (10 Units)

I have a problem with backing the Angels this season because their bullpen has been one of the most unreliable in and the big league this season. The Angels bullpen use to be a lock to close out games but they have an ERA of 4.79 on the season and they have been shaky to say the least. Both games in this series have been very close with each team winning a game and each team winning a by a run in the two games. Having said that Texas has dominated the Angels this season going 3-1 in their four meetings but if anyone is going to put an end to that it will be Jered Weaver who is coming off back-to-back 11 strikeout performances and usually 11 strikeouts is enough to get you a win but in his last home start Weaver did all he could to beat the Rockies but he lacked run support and the Angels lost 4-3 despite the big time performance by Weaver. He also struck out 11 in a 12-0 win at Wrigley Field on June 19. As long as the run support is there for Weaver, he is going to win this game. In seven home starts this season Weaver is 2-1 with an ERA of 1.96 with a WHIP of 1.04 and batters are hitting only .209 against him. CJ Wilson is on the mound for Texas and he's been good this season but he is 1-2 career wise against the Angels with an ERA of 5.59. I think he is carrying a bit too much value for some in this game based on the fact that Texas is 5-0 in Wilson's last five starts but three of those starts were at home and the two road starts against National League teams with losing records. In his last road start against an AL opponent he allowed 5 ER's in six innings pitched in Minnesota in an 8-3 loss. Wilson has pitched well on the road for the most part of the season but has only one win in six road starts and there is just no way I see him beating Weaver the way he has pitched in recent games. Texas won't strikeout as much as Weaver's last two opponents but the Angels should give him enough support to win.

Trend of the Game: LA Angels are 4-0 in Jered Weaver's last four home starts against Texas.


LA Angels 7, Texas 1





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No Bay or Reyes tonight for Mets.
Long travel back from PR.
Don't like Mets tonight.
 

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RECAP



1-1 (+0.40 Units) with pending



Hard to predict how the rookie would pitch for the Reds but he was outstanding. The Cubs had their chances to take the lead in the 8th inning but blew them with their biggest bats. Onto the night show with some WNBA and CFL selections as well tonight. GL to all!





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RECAP (Season)



MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Record: 4-10 (-80.00 Units)


Obviously not up to par with baseball just yet but will stay positive, bet on a daily basis and as always turn this thing around before the season is said and done with. Had great results in other sports today:


WNBA: 3-0 ATS (+30.00 Units)

CFL: 1-0 ATS (+10.00 Units)



But again going 2-5 in baseball is unacceptable. See you all tomorrow and congrats to all who made dough.

I have two huge tennis plays that are posted on the tennis site (everyone knows it by now) and there is money to be made in those Wimbledon Semi-Finals tomorrow morning. Also posting some huge soccer bets on the same forum (I post all my tennis and soccer elsewhere). Was a perfect 4-0 in Round of 16 plays in the World Cup.

Nice to see most of you again. To the bashers keep it coming, how about using your real accounts to do it, grow some balls or some shit.





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