MistaFlava's MLB Baseball Friday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (July 2, 2010)

MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 4-10 (-80.00 Units)



Friday, July 2


Chicago Cubs ML -130 (10 Units)

This could have been a square play but 65% of the public have already started pounding away on the much better team, the Cincinnati Reds...and it makes sense because of the way the two teams are playing as of late. Having said that, the game yesterday could have gone either way as both teams blew chances to take the lead and put the game away. The question mark remains, will the Cubs find a way to score some runs for their starting staff or will they continue to leave them out to dry? Ryan Dempster is on the mound today and despite his poor numbers in day games, you have to think he is going to lead this team to a win. The Cubs are 3-0 lifetime at home when he pitches against the Reds at Wrigley and the Cubs have supported Dempster with 4.7 runs per game his last three starts. Bronson Arroyo has the same kind of support in his last three starts but his pitching has been of concern. Arroyo pitched only 5.0 innings in his last start allowing 4 ER's in a 5-3 loss to Cleveland. He also allowed 5 ER's in a start against Kansas City earlier in June and allowed 7 ER's in St. Louis at the end of May. Dempster is coming off three very good starts and has gone five straight starts without allowing more than 3 ER's in a game. In his last 10 starts he has allowed more than 3 ER's only twice and two of those times were on the road. Dempster has allowed 15 Home Runs this season but only two in his last three starts which is a big time advantage against one of the best power hitting teams in the MLB. The public has shifted their attention to the Reds, they will attempt to ride the hot streak into the weekend but Dempster has been on fire and unlike Silva yesterday, should have enough run support in this game.

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 8-2 in Mark Carlson's last 10 games behind home plate versus Cincinnati.


Chicago 5, Cincinnati 4





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New York Mets ML -109 (10 Units)

I can only plug away and hope things get better. This is a tough one because both starting pitchers have struggled against their opponent tonight and the numbers are quite shocking for both guys. Jonathon Niese has pitched 4.1 career innings against Washington as a reliever and has allowed 6 ER's in those short four innings of work. Opposing batters are hitting .327 against Niese on the road this season but he has had tons of run support away from home and is 2-1 in five road starts in 2010. On the other side of the mound is Luis Atilano who has made two career starts against the Mets, is 1-1 in those starts with an ERA of 5.59, a WHIP of 1.97 and they have batted .341 against him in those two starts. The big difference for me is the fact that Washington is batting only .211 in their last 10 games versus left handed pitchers while the Mets are batting .277 against righties in those last 10 games. At home this season Atilano is only 2-2 in five starts with an ERA of 4.82 and despite their severe lack of run support for Johan Santana in recent weeks, the Mets are still one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors the last few weeks and they have batted .285 in their last 10 games overall. Niese has benefited from 9.3 runs of support per start in his last three starts which is a ton more than Santana was getting last night and overall the Mets have played well enough to win this game. Both starting pitchers are going to allow runs but in the end the Mets will continue to support their young lefty and Washington has struggled against lefties in recent weeks. Mets is the only play.

Trend of the Game: New York is 5-0 in Jonathon Niese's last five starts.


NY Mets 8, Washington 4





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Atlanta Braves ML +108 (10 Units)

This is one hell of a pitching matchup and I don't usually go against Joe Johnson but this is a good spot. Kris Medlen is on the mound for the Braves tonight and he's been absolutely cash money not only this season but in recent weeks. First of all the Braves are 3-0 in his last three starts. Joe Johnson has pitched better than Medlen in his last three starts but the Marlins are only 1-2 in those starts and they give him only 2.3 runs of support per starts in those games compared to the 5.0 runs of support per game Medlen has been getting. Medlen has made four home starts, he has never lost at home and is 2-0 in those games with an ERA of 2.86, a WHIP of 1.18 and opposing batters are batting only .258 against him in this stadium. He does have a loss against the Marlins in his career but has never started against them and his only troubles were as a part-time closer where he blew two saves against this team. Joe Johnson is the man and he's definitely worth my money 90% of the time but in his 11 career starts against Atlanta he is only 4-2 and the Braves have hit .263 against him in those games. He has been tremendous away from home this season but the Marlins don't give him run support on the road and they are only 16-18 away from home this season. Right now the Braves have won four of their last six games while the Marlins come into this series struggling quite a bit having lost 5 of their last 7 games. Sure they have their ace on the mound tonight but Johnson doesn't get run support and the Braves hidden gem has been pitching well enough to back him again here. The Marlins bullpen is a joke so even if Johnson keeps them in the game the bullpen has been horrendous all season long and that should be the difference.

Trend of the Game: Atlanta is 6-0 in Kris Medlen's last six starts.


Atlanta 4, Florida 1





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Tampa Bay Rays ML -115 (10 Units)

Eventually good teams snap out of their slumps and I think that win in Game 1 of this series did just that for a Tampa Bay team that really needed something good to happen. The Rays tied the game up in the 9th inning forcing John Rauch to blow a save and they won it in extras which was a big step back for these guys after a horrendous series with Boston. Tampa Bay is a very impressive 26-13 away from home this season and if anyone is going to come into this new Target Field and win it's them. I failed to recognize that last night but with their ace David Price on the mound for this one, you have to like the Rays chances of taking a 2-0 lead in the series. Price is 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota making only one career start and he held them to only six hits over 6.1 innings while striking out 13 batters in the game. Price is 6-2 on the road this season in eight starts with an ERA of 2.88 in those games and a WHIP of 1.38 in those games. Scott Baker is in trouble tonight. He is 1-2 lifetime against Tampa Bay with an ERA of 5.30, a WHIP of 1.29 and the Rays have hit him for .282 in his three career starts against them. He is 5-2 at home this season and has pitched tremendously well but the Rays have made a living off pounding away on righties on the road this season and it's a big part of why they are 26-13 away from home. You also have to consider that their bullpen is playing so well right now and their starters have been far superior than Minnesota (their starters have an ERA of 5.61 in the last 10 games). That's just not going to cut it against David Price or against what has the potential to be one of the best hitting lineups in baseball although they have they have yet to show it this season. Price is untouchable on the road and he's been good against the Twins.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 2-9 in Scott Baker's last 11 starts versus AL East opponents.


Tampa Bay 6, Minnesota 2





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San Francisco Giants ML -105 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***

The Giants are having a rough year to some degree but they are still above .500 for the season and in the National League that is a guarantee that you are still competing for a playoff spot of some kind. Winning on the road has been somewhat of an issue for this Giants team in 2010 but their ace Tim Lincecum is on the mound tonight and anyone looking at the 2009 game when he pitched here in Colorado and lost 4-2 must be missing that the guy on the other side of the mound was Usbaldo Jimenez, who has taken over as the top pitcher in the National League. Considering how well the Rockies have hit the ball both at home and on the road, you have to be somewhat impressed that Lincecum has a winning record against this team in 12 career starts going 5-4. I don't think I would back Lincecum at home in this same matchup because a) he has not been the same pitcher at home as on the road and b) he would be overpriced at home and the Rockies are too good to stay away from as an underdog. On the road this season Lincecum is unbeaten with his 3-0 record in seven road starts and opposing batters have managed to hit him for only .220 on the season. He has pitched 46.0 innings away from home and allowed only 13 ER's so scoring is going to come at a premium for the Rockies tonight. Jhoulys Chacin beat the Giants earlier this year in San Francisco but he is a better road pitcher than home pitcher (often the case at Coors Field) as he is 2-3 at home this season with an ERA of 4.80, a WHIP of 1.27 and he has allowed 16 ER's in only five starts. He did hold the Giants to only one hit in his start against them earlier this season so in what could turn into a pitcher's dual in the end, I have to go with the Giants bullpen (1.85 ERA over the course of the last 10 games) instead of the Rockies bullpen (6.88 ERA over the course of the last 10 games). Two great young arms tonight but Lincecum comes out on top here.

Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 6-1 in Tim Lincecum's last seven road starts.


San Francisco 4, Colorado 1





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Los Angeles Dodgers ML -120 (10 Units)

This is probably the best game of the night because the public always loves to pound away on the Dodgers (so far they are on the boys in blue at a 70% clip right now) and Edwin Jackson is coming off a no-hitter performance where he wasn't exactly sharp but the Rays have been no hit twice now this season so it's understandable. Hiroko Kuroda is having an on and off kind of season right now at 7-5 on the year but he has been winning on the road going 4-3 in seven road starts this season with a very impressive ERA of 2.93 in those games and a WHIP of 1.23. He has made eight career starts against the Diamondbacks and has won only twice so this game could easily move to the pens to be decided in the late innings at which point any game that is to be decided by bullpens is not going to be won by Arizona. Their bullpen has an ERA of 6.98 on the season and the Dodgers pen has been a lot better. Jackson is coming off that no hitter but I am not convinced he can continue winning as he is only 1-1 in three career starts against the Dodgers and he has been brutal at home this season going 2-3 in eight starts with an ERA of 5.17, a WHIP of 1.41 and opponents are batting .276 against him in those games. The Dodgers are swinging some hot bats right now hitting .274 in their last 10 games and don't forget they won 8 of 9 games against Arizona in 2009, they won all three games played in Arizona last year and the Diamondbacks just fired everyone in their clubhouse pretty much. I have to go against Jackson at home and take the Dodgers to win.

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 0-6 in Edwin Jackson's last six starts against NL West opponents.


LA Dodgers 7, Arizona 3





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San Diego Padres ML -165 (10 Units)

This is not my range of wager and almost never touch odds this high on any team but I think there is so much value in taking San Diego tonight for the simple fact that they are one of the best teams in the National League, they need someone to take them out of this slump that has seen them lose three of their last four games and they have one of their favorite starters on the mound tonight in Mat Latos. The Padres are 3-0 in his last three starts and he has been tremendous in those starts as well allowing only 13 hits in 19.1 innings pitched going 2-0 in those games. I know a lot are going to be tempted to back the Astros for the simple fact that Roy Oswalt is 10-2 lifetime against San Diego but that was the Padres of old and this 2010 edition is nothing like the last 10 editions of this team that Oswalt has dominated in the past. I know that Oswalt has been untouchable on the road this season and opponents are batting only .209 against him away from home in 2010 but where is the Houston offense going to come from? In his last three starts the Astros have given Oswalt only 2.0 runs of support per game and it seems to be taking it's toll on the veteran right hander. The Astros are only 6-10 in his 16 starts this season and I would much rather have my money on Mat Latos who dominated the Astros in his only career start against them going 8.0 innings and allowing 0 ER's and only 2 hits along the way. Opponents are batting only .222 against him at home this season and that can't be good news for a Houston team that is batting only .234 away from home in 2010. San Diego is 10-5 this season when Matos is on the mound and they have won 8 of his last 10 starts so this is probably as good a wager as you are going to find in the late games.

Trend of the Game: San Diego is 6-1 in Mat Latos' last seven starts versus teams with a losing record on the season.


San Diego 3, Houston 1





GOOD LUCK TO ALL!





:toast:

lipsman1 said:

simply the most valuable poster in forumville. hitting 22% on the year despite betting almost all favorites. can't wait for your 100 unit bet to try to sweep yet another disaster season under the rug.
thanks again. look forward to seeing you tomorrow!!!!!!

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His only win tonight is the dog bet too..them favs will kill ya when thats all you bet

There's still plenty of time for the Dodgers to catch up.

lipsman1 said:

simply the most valuable poster in forumville. hitting 22% on the year despite betting almost all favorites. can't wait for your 100 unit bet to try to sweep yet another disaster season under the rug.
thanks again. look forward to seeing you tomorrow!!!!!!

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Hey hey buddy, relax!! The 10,000 unit run line parlay of your lifetime is being released tomorrow!!

@)@)

Best fade out there.

What's Really Great Is His Consistency

He's been doing this for yrs!!!@)