Yesterday 3-0-0 +9.76 Units
Last 30 Days 46-44-1 +30.00
Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 122-145-2 +11.20 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 over ARIZONA
One has to figure this to be a huge letdown spot for Edwin Jackson after throwing that unlikely no-hitter against the Rays in his last start. It’s also worth noting that he threw 149 pitches in that game and even before that he was averaging 113 pitches per game. There are most certainly workload concerns surrounding Jackson for the remainder of the year and it’s also worth noting that he’ll face the Dodgers for the third time this year and that, too, is unfavorable for him. Jackson has had 4½-years of mediocrity and his second half stats have always been worse than his first half stats. The Dodgers are heating up again with four wins in its last five with only loss over that stretch being that bizarre loss to the Yanks in which they blew a four-run lead in the ninth. Furthermore, the Dodgers have scored 42 runs over its last seven games and this park caters to their slew of line drive hitters. In fact, when the Dodgers were here back in mid-may, they swept the D-Backs and scored 26 times in the three-game set. Hiroki Kuroda is quietly establishing himself as a reliable asset. Since coming to the U.S. in 2008, Kuroda has turned in two remarkably consistent seasons, posting ERAs of 3.73 and 3.76. Are his skills as good as his surface stats? Yes. In fact, there are a number of reasons to believe Kuroda really is this good. He had elite control in both of his seasons in the majors and prior ownership of that skill in Japan. He had an increase in skills in his second season, even as MLB hitters got a longer look at him and he had good-to-great xERA and BPV marks (see explanation of BPV and PQS at the bottom of this page) in three of his last four professional seasons. Kuroda is coming off a brilliant June with a 3.47 xERA and a 104 BPV. The Dodgers laying about 11 cents is a cheap lay but chances are if they win they’ll win going away, thus the run-line wager. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
Last 30 Days 46-44-1 +30.00
Units Season To Date (Since March 2010) 122-145-2 +11.20 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 over ARIZONA
One has to figure this to be a huge letdown spot for Edwin Jackson after throwing that unlikely no-hitter against the Rays in his last start. It’s also worth noting that he threw 149 pitches in that game and even before that he was averaging 113 pitches per game. There are most certainly workload concerns surrounding Jackson for the remainder of the year and it’s also worth noting that he’ll face the Dodgers for the third time this year and that, too, is unfavorable for him. Jackson has had 4½-years of mediocrity and his second half stats have always been worse than his first half stats. The Dodgers are heating up again with four wins in its last five with only loss over that stretch being that bizarre loss to the Yanks in which they blew a four-run lead in the ninth. Furthermore, the Dodgers have scored 42 runs over its last seven games and this park caters to their slew of line drive hitters. In fact, when the Dodgers were here back in mid-may, they swept the D-Backs and scored 26 times in the three-game set. Hiroki Kuroda is quietly establishing himself as a reliable asset. Since coming to the U.S. in 2008, Kuroda has turned in two remarkably consistent seasons, posting ERAs of 3.73 and 3.76. Are his skills as good as his surface stats? Yes. In fact, there are a number of reasons to believe Kuroda really is this good. He had elite control in both of his seasons in the majors and prior ownership of that skill in Japan. He had an increase in skills in his second season, even as MLB hitters got a longer look at him and he had good-to-great xERA and BPV marks (see explanation of BPV and PQS at the bottom of this page) in three of his last four professional seasons. Kuroda is coming off a brilliant June with a 3.47 xERA and a 104 BPV. The Dodgers laying about 11 cents is a cheap lay but chances are if they win they’ll win going away, thus the run-line wager. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
