five today w/analysis

Search

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
Yesterday 0-1-0 -2.00 units
Last 30 Days 45-43-1 +28.90 units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 122-146-2 +9.20 units


All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.

Houston +1.56 over SAN DIEGO
Because of a brutal start to the year and some ugly offensive stats as a result of that brutal start, the Astros continue to offer up great value almost daily. They were shutout last night in a 3-0 loss but they faced Matt Latos and he’s been tough as shoe leather all year. In its previous four games the Astros scored a combined 25 runs and they’ve also gone 6-4 over its last 10 games. In other words, they’re playing a lot better now and that’s because they underachieved early. This is a decent team with a winning percentage of just .395 so there’s just now way they keep that underachieving pace and its ascent has already begun. Bud Norris makes his second start since coming off the DL and that has to be a positive thing. It’s almost like a horse in his second start back after a long layoff. Norris has outstanding stuff but his 6.84 ERA is what is noticeable on paper and thus, the big take-back. Thing is, he has 60 k’s in 48 frames and he’s walked just 27 batters. Upon his return he struck out six and walked one and he’s only going to get better. In this park, against this offense he most certainly has a great chance for success. Lost in the Padres’ surprising NL West run has been Kevin Correia’s month-by-month decline - including a 7.83 ERA / 5.99 xERA in 23 IP in five June starts. In his last three starts at this pitcher-friendly venue, Correia has allowed 24 hits and 14 earned runs over 16 IP and two of those three starts were against Seattle and Toronto. Win or lose, Kevin Correia as a –1.65 favorite is just plain stupid. Play: Houston +1.56 (Risking 2 units).

COLORADO –1½ +1.06 over San Francisco
Barry Zito (39 BPV, 2-4-4-0-5 PQS) is still getting mileage out of that hot April (1.53 ERA, 81% strand rate), as his ERA is still a very respectable 3.43. But his ERA in May and June was 4.30 and 4.50, respectively. His fly-ball rate by month (39%, 42%, 50%) isn’t encouraging and neither is he. Zito will deliver some decent games the remainder of the year but don’t count on too many, especially in this park. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back to the year 2002 and retrieve the skills he had when he won the American League Cy Young. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble on his own ... and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Fact is, he’s just not that good. Furthermore, the Giants are reeling with seven straight losses and one win over its last 10 games. They’ve scored three runs or less in seven straight and things surely don’t figure to get better here. Ubaldo Jimenez (90 BPV, 5-4-4-3-4 PQS) is still rolling along, going for his 15th win and still sporting a sub-2.00 ERA. His dominance/disaster splits are an amazing 94%/0%. The 90%+ strand rate he had in April and May finally pulled back in June, and he had a 4.41 ERA in the month but he’s still pitching very well and he’s still one of the best in the business. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 over ARIZONA
It just so happened that the Dodgers were on the wrong end of a 17-run game last night when the D-Backs broke out for 12 runs. However, the Dodgers still scored five times and have now scored 34 runs over its last four games at this park. What can be expected when these two meet are runs galore and the majority of those runs for this one should come off the bats of the Dodgers. Rodrigo Lopez (30 BPV, 4-4-1-3-3 PQS) gets the nod tonight. Ian Kennedy was originally scheduled to start, but is being pushed back in an effort to mitigate the risk of overuse. Lopez has seen his command drop and fly balls rise after a decent April, and his current 4.42 ERA looks like a best-case scenario. The Dodgers have seen him twice already this year and that has to be a strong advantage for them. Clayton Kershaw (77 BPV, 4-5-5-5-5 PQS) comes into this game on a 10-game PQS-dominant streak. You have to go back to May 4th to find his only PQS disaster of the year. In 16 starts overall, Kershaw has a BAA of just .206 and he also has 108 k’s in 98 innings. This one could get ugly. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).

Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 over CHICAGO
What can one say about the Cubbies after yesterday’s totally humiliating defeat? Poor Ryan Dempster needed to throw a shutout and hit a home run himself to win yesterday. Lou didn't even show up to make any postgame remarks. Maybe he's finally had enough. Now Randy Wells will start with the winds blowing out to center at 15-20 MPH. Wells has gone eleven consecutive starts without a win, so this game is certainly a story of two starting pitchers on divergent paths. Wells has gone 11 consecutive starts without a win and that has to take its toll. He’s consistently served up a 25% line-drive rate this year and that simply spells big-time trouble with the winds blowing out. Johnny Cueto might allow a few runs too but his chances of a strong outing are about 100 times better than Wells chances. Cueto also is a strikeout pitcher and that, too, is a big asset when a favorable hitter’s wind is blowing at Wrigley. No matter how you break this one down, the Cubbies chances of winning aren’t good. This is a team in complete turmoil and aside from seeing BB’s at the plate, they’re mentally drained to the max. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units).

Milwaukee +1.85 over ST. LOUIS
The most overrated and overvalued team in baseball continues to be the St. Louis Cardinals and taking back a tag like this, despite Chris Carpenter going, comes highly recommended. It’s worth noting that despite going 3-0 in June, Carpenters skills are trending downward. His walks are up (eight in the last two games) and his groundball rate is coming down game by game. Let’s also not forget that he pitched just 21 innings combined in ’07 and ’08 followed by 192 frames last year so fatigue could be setting in. He also took a line drive off his arm in his last start and it stung badly. In fact, it wasn’t even clear that Carpenter was going to be able to make this start. Also note that Milwaukee’s lineup is hot, with a league-leading .491 SLG over the last seven days. Manny Parra (86 BPV, 3-5-5-3-2 PQS) has faced the Cardinals more than any other team in his career, and he probably wishes he could face them all the time. Among teams he’s faced more than three times, Parra’s 3.00 ERA against the Cardinals is his best. Over his last five starts, Parra has allowed more than three runs just one time and that includes a game in Colorado and a game against the Rangers. There is huge talent here and there is also huge value so get on Parra before he’s back on everyone’s radar. Play: Milwaukee +1.85 (Risking 2 units).

**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
12,469
Tokens
good to see you back in black my friend ..........are you doing anything w/the CFL ?
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
5,201
Tokens
Of course Doug. You know where to see my picks. In fact, this year, we're doing every game. 3-0 in the first week so far. Hope your good man.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
12,469
Tokens
Of course Doug. You know where to see my picks. In fact, this year, we're doing every game. 3-0 in the first week so far. Hope your good man.



good to know ..............Continued success on basses / and stop in the CFL room to say hello !!
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,820
Messages
13,439,149
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com