Yesterday 2-3-0 -0.22 Units
Last 30 Days 46-44-1 +30.16 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 124-149-2 +8.98 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Toronto +1.98 over NY YANKEES
The Yanks are overpriced every single day and yet it’s still hard to wager against them because they win so many games. Having said that, this one is all about taking close to 2-1 on Brandon Morrow, a guy that should never be taking back a price like this. Brandon Morrow (83 BPV, 5-5-4-5-4 PQS) has notched five consecutive PQS-dominant starts. The roll began with his only previous start vs. NYY this season, a PQS-5 performance at home last month in which he posted an 8/1 K/BB in seven innings, while limiting the Yanks to four hits and one run. Morrow displayed much-improved control last month and the 34/10 K/BB in 33 IP in his five June starts underscores Morrow's elite potential. Morrow has some of the nastiest stuff in the league and he just keeps getting better. Phil Hughes (88 BPV, 5-4-3-2-1 PQS) endured his first PQS-disaster of the season in his last start vs. Seattle's notoriously weak offense in which he allowed season-highs in hits and earned runs. Hughes’ skills showed some erosion last month, as the elite dominance he displayed in April and May was absent in June. He’s allowed four HR in his last three starts, boosting his season's total to eight, with a fortuitous 7% hr/f rate. Hughes is a fly-ball pitcher who borders on being an extreme fly-baller, so the hr/9 should be expected to and the Jays possess a slew of players that can do deep. The Jays really have a great chance to win here with Morrow going and the tag sweetens this pick to an almost must-play status. Play: Toronto +1.98 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.42 over San Diego
Without sounding redundant, it’s worth repeating that the Astros continue to offer up value because of a lousy W/L record but they’re very likely going to play .500-ball or better the remainder of the season. As a +1.56 pooch yesterday they lost 1-0 and just like a high percentage of all games, it could have gone with way and that’s why playing value is so vital. Wade LeBlanc (38 BPV, 4-3-3-2-5 PQS) is coming off his first PQS-5 of the season. He has posted wins in only two of his last eight decisions, and in two of his last eleven starts. The 4.74 xERA suggests that the 3.25 ERA is due to spike, with the 81% strand rate a factor. Fact is, Leblanc is just not that good and certainly does not warrant this billing. Brett Myers (66 BPV, 4-4-2-3-3 PQS) dominance has surged each month. He’s faced the red-hot Brewers, the Yanks and the Royals in three of his last four starts and will take a big step down in class here. When facing weaker opposition he’s been terrific. In fact, his last three “weak” opponents have been San Fran, the Cubbies and the Nats and in those three starts combined, Myers allowed just four earned runs in 20 IP. Myers has also been outstanding after going through the line-up for the first time so if he can get through the line-up once unscathed, his chances of lasting deep increase dramatically. We get the better pitcher plus a nice tag in a game the Astros can surely win. Play: Houston +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.64 over L.A. ANGELS
The problem with the Angels is that they scored just three runs in the first two games of this series against two starting stiffs in Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen. The Angels have now scored just nine runs over its last four games and when a team gets into an offensive funk it’s very difficult to snap out of it. They may break out but the tag here on the Royals under these conditions is too good to pass up on. Anthony Lerew (86 BPV, 5-1-5 PQS) has been up-and-down in his three starts since his recall from the minor Leagues, though he managed to work into, or through, the sixth inning in each of the starts. The 13/4 K/BB is promising and if Chen and Davies did well here, there’s no reason Lerew can’t. Offensively, the Royals are capable of going off against anyone and that’s what makes them so appealing as this big a pooch. Joel Pineiro is having a very good year but he’s still allowed 109 hits in 104 innings for a BAA of .267. Significant jump in groundball rates and control fueled this surprise. However, Pineiro is by no means dominant and a fortunate hr/9 and past health issues provide little room for error. Could have a window, but history says bet against. The Royals saw Pineiro earlier in the year and got to him for six runs and a .313 BA. The Angels have never seen Lerew. Play: Kansas City +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
Last 30 Days 46-44-1 +30.16 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 124-149-2 +8.98 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Toronto +1.98 over NY YANKEES
The Yanks are overpriced every single day and yet it’s still hard to wager against them because they win so many games. Having said that, this one is all about taking close to 2-1 on Brandon Morrow, a guy that should never be taking back a price like this. Brandon Morrow (83 BPV, 5-5-4-5-4 PQS) has notched five consecutive PQS-dominant starts. The roll began with his only previous start vs. NYY this season, a PQS-5 performance at home last month in which he posted an 8/1 K/BB in seven innings, while limiting the Yanks to four hits and one run. Morrow displayed much-improved control last month and the 34/10 K/BB in 33 IP in his five June starts underscores Morrow's elite potential. Morrow has some of the nastiest stuff in the league and he just keeps getting better. Phil Hughes (88 BPV, 5-4-3-2-1 PQS) endured his first PQS-disaster of the season in his last start vs. Seattle's notoriously weak offense in which he allowed season-highs in hits and earned runs. Hughes’ skills showed some erosion last month, as the elite dominance he displayed in April and May was absent in June. He’s allowed four HR in his last three starts, boosting his season's total to eight, with a fortuitous 7% hr/f rate. Hughes is a fly-ball pitcher who borders on being an extreme fly-baller, so the hr/9 should be expected to and the Jays possess a slew of players that can do deep. The Jays really have a great chance to win here with Morrow going and the tag sweetens this pick to an almost must-play status. Play: Toronto +1.98 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.42 over San Diego
Without sounding redundant, it’s worth repeating that the Astros continue to offer up value because of a lousy W/L record but they’re very likely going to play .500-ball or better the remainder of the season. As a +1.56 pooch yesterday they lost 1-0 and just like a high percentage of all games, it could have gone with way and that’s why playing value is so vital. Wade LeBlanc (38 BPV, 4-3-3-2-5 PQS) is coming off his first PQS-5 of the season. He has posted wins in only two of his last eight decisions, and in two of his last eleven starts. The 4.74 xERA suggests that the 3.25 ERA is due to spike, with the 81% strand rate a factor. Fact is, Leblanc is just not that good and certainly does not warrant this billing. Brett Myers (66 BPV, 4-4-2-3-3 PQS) dominance has surged each month. He’s faced the red-hot Brewers, the Yanks and the Royals in three of his last four starts and will take a big step down in class here. When facing weaker opposition he’s been terrific. In fact, his last three “weak” opponents have been San Fran, the Cubbies and the Nats and in those three starts combined, Myers allowed just four earned runs in 20 IP. Myers has also been outstanding after going through the line-up for the first time so if he can get through the line-up once unscathed, his chances of lasting deep increase dramatically. We get the better pitcher plus a nice tag in a game the Astros can surely win. Play: Houston +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +1.64 over L.A. ANGELS
The problem with the Angels is that they scored just three runs in the first two games of this series against two starting stiffs in Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen. The Angels have now scored just nine runs over its last four games and when a team gets into an offensive funk it’s very difficult to snap out of it. They may break out but the tag here on the Royals under these conditions is too good to pass up on. Anthony Lerew (86 BPV, 5-1-5 PQS) has been up-and-down in his three starts since his recall from the minor Leagues, though he managed to work into, or through, the sixth inning in each of the starts. The 13/4 K/BB is promising and if Chen and Davies did well here, there’s no reason Lerew can’t. Offensively, the Royals are capable of going off against anyone and that’s what makes them so appealing as this big a pooch. Joel Pineiro is having a very good year but he’s still allowed 109 hits in 104 innings for a BAA of .267. Significant jump in groundball rates and control fueled this surprise. However, Pineiro is by no means dominant and a fortunate hr/9 and past health issues provide little room for error. Could have a window, but history says bet against. The Royals saw Pineiro earlier in the year and got to him for six runs and a .313 BA. The Angels have never seen Lerew. Play: Kansas City +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
