MistaFlava's MLB Baseball Sunday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Happy July 4, 2010)

MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 9-16 (-111.85 Units)



Sunday, July 4


Detroit Tigers ML +106 (10 Units)

You rarely want to go against Cliff Lee because he is still one of the most dominant and effective pitchers in the Major Leagues but this is a must right now. As dominant as he has been the past month or so (the Mariners are 3-0 in his last three starts and he has an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 0.89 in those starts), I don't think the fit is right for him to pitch in this ballpark. Don't forget that Seattle is 8-4 when Cliff Lee starts in 2010 which is good but they have lost four times. The fit is wrong for Lee because batters have an easy time picking up the ball against left handed pitchers and the Tigers have crushed the ball all season against lefties batting .303 at home against left handed pitchers this season. The first two games of this series have not been close with the Tigers outscoring Seattle 13-2 and winning both games. Cliff Lee is 0-2 this season when pitching in day games and the team has supported with him with a grand total of two total runs in those two games combined. So the run support is lacking for Lee during the day, he has to pitch in a ballpark where lefties don't make it out alive and he has allowed 23 hits in his last three starts in Detroit (all with the Indians). Jeremy Bonderman has been the best home pitcher for the Tigers with quality starts in his last five home outings and he is coming off a gem the last time he faced this Seattle lineup. Seattle is batting .229 against right handed pitchers on the road and there is no hope for them to come out winners in Detroit. These are awesome odds.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 6-1 in their last seven games versus a left handed starter.


Detroit 4, Seattle 2





more to come...

adding...



New York Mets ML -103 (10 Units)

This is probably the best game out there today in terms of excitement and getting your buck for your money as a fan and this is exactly the type of game the Mets would lost at home but have been winning on the road consistently over the years. This is it, the series is on the line and if the Mets lose this one they lost the series 3-1. They have a chance to even things out and salvage what has been a strange road trip that has them at 2-4 right now. Hisanori Takahashi is on the mound for the Mets and despite having a decent season so far he has been rocked in his last two starts (against Detroit and Florida). However, the Tigers and Marlins are very good against left handed pitchers while Washington is batting .214 in their last 10 games versus lefties. Takahashi is 6-3 on the season and has at times shown signs of brilliance. Craig Stammen is on the other side of the mound in this one and he has dominated the Mets lineup in the past but he is inconsistent and I don't trust that he can keep his head together for a third straight start coming off two very good outings. Again this is a big game for the Mets because they don't want to go home off a 2-5 road trip to Washington and Puerto Rico (Florida Marlins). Washington is only 5-8 when Craig Stammen is the starter this season and Takahashi should be just fine in this one.

Trend of the Game: NY Mets are 13-3 in their last 16 games versus a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30.


NY Mets 7, Washington 4





more to come...

adding...



Philadelphia Phillies ML -134 (10 Units)

This is the kind of series where you don't have much of a choice but to keep taking the better team and hope to make some cash. The Phillies broke out the bats last night and ended their three games slump with a 12-4 win and I think they'll feed off the big effort and close this series out with a series tying win. Joe Blanton is on the mound for Philadelphia and they are 3-0 in his last three starts where his ERA is 3.80 and his WHIP is 1.22 in those starts. Believe it or not the Phillies have provided Blanton with a total of 30 runs in those three starts and there is never a shortage of run support (5.4 per game this season) when Blanton is on the mound. Jeff Karstens gets the ball for the Pirates in this game and he has somewhat struggled. The Pirates are 1-2 in his last three starts where his ERA is 4.32 and his WHIP 1.32 as the Pirates have scored only 4.0 runs per game for him in those starts. Any right handed pitcher who comes to this ballpark and has had success in recent starts should have no problems getting through a Pirates lineup that is batting .229 versus right handed pitchers at home this season. The Pirates pen has been awful in recent games with a 5.88 ERA in the last 10 games and even if Blanton doesn't have the lead when he leaves, the Phillies bullpen has been outstanding and that should be the difference in this game. The Phillies should have no problems coming out of here with a win.

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 1-7 in Jeff Karstens' last eight Sunday starts.


Philadelphia 9, Pittsburgh 3





more to come...

gl on the plays

adding...



Minnesota Twins ML +106 (10 Units)

Another great game today with a four games series win on the line for Tampa Bay. Having lost two of three already, the best the Twins can do is tie things up and salvage a home series against one of the best road teams in baseball. If anyone is going to lead them to a win it has to be Nick Blackburn who can't possibly pitch any worse than he did in his last three starts. Seriously though. Does this line from Vegas make any sense to anyone? Blackburn has allowed 17 ER's in his last three starts while managing to pitch only 12.1 innings and allowing 19 hits. Actually four of his last six starts have been horrendous and something needs to be fixed. I do however know that Blackburn likes facing this Rays lineup because in his last two starts against the Rays he has allowed only 4 ER's and won both times. The reason I like the Twins here is because of James Shields and his absolute inconsistencies that has really hurt this team. He has allowed 30 ER's in his last five starts and believe it or not Tampa Bay is 0-7 in Shields last seven starts now. The Rays are 1-4 when Shields pitches in a day time game this season while the Twins are 6-1 when Nick Blackburn pitches at home. Blackburn gets a whopping 7.4 runs of support per home start this season while the Rays have failed to show up on many occasions when Shields is on the mound providing him with only 2.4 runs of support per day time start in five day time starts in 2010. The Rays are batting only .215 versus right handed pitchers in their last ten games and I just don't see the Twins losing when Blackburn is on the mound at home.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 14-3 in Nick Blackburn's last 17 home starts versus a team with a winning record on the season.


Minnesota 6, Tampa Bay 3





more to come...

adding...



Cincinnati Reds ML +116 (10 Units)

Tread lightly because I am 0-3 in this series so far, have lost most of my money betting on the wrong way on these two teams but out of the four games this is the one I like the most in terms of confidence. We clearly saw this weekend that the Reds are a much better team than the Cubs and a team heading in a completely different direction. They won the first two games of this series, somehow the Cubs managed to snap out of their funk yesterday and win despite nearly blowing a late 3-0 lead and in the end the better team always comes out on top when it comes to a four game series and the Reds now what they have to do. Mike Leake was having a tremendous year up until a few weeks ago and he has really struggled in his last three starts. Having said that, it doesn't really matter how poorly you are pitching when you face this Cubs lineup that is batting .209 in their last 10 games and that is batting only .244 against right handed starters in 2010. Leake dominated the Cubs on two different occasions this season beating them twice at home with some of his best outings of the year. Ted Lilly is on the mound for the Cubs and he's been consistent as always but the team is 6-7 this season when he starts, he is getting a pathetic 2.4 runs of support per game this entire season (one of the lowest run supports in the major leagues) and at some point a pitcher get frustrated and it doesn't take much to make mistakes. The Cubs have now lost four of their last six games overall, their batting has been horrendous this entire series as they left the bases loaded two or three times before finally converting late in yesterday's game and Mike Leake should get back on track against one of the worst lineups in baseball right now.

Trend of the Game: Chicago is 1-6 in Ted Lilly's last seven starts against Cincinnati.


Cincinnati 5, Chicago 2





more to come...

adding...



Colorado Rockies ML -128 (10 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

What was that yesterday? Ubaldo Jimenez getting rocked for the third straight time has to have the Rockies concerned to some degree because up until that points the Giants had shown no signs of life in this series scoring only six runs in the first two games but they got to the best pitcher in the National League (arguably) and avoided an early series loss. Here is another series that is on the line today with the Rockies having the chance to come away with a 3-1 series win and I think Jason Hammel is the guy to get the job done. It's not that I'm a fan of the way he approaches the game because he does walk a lot of batters, he does allow a lot of base runners and most of the time that can get a starter in big time trouble but the Rockies have given him ample run support this season and 6.3 runs of support per game in his last three starts to be precise. Matt Cain had been pitching well all season but Cain is going through a rough period right now and the Giants are 0-3 in his last three starts where his ERA is 8.22, his WHIP is 1.89 and the Giants have stopped hitting for him. Colorado is batting .292 against right handed pitchers at home this season, they are batting .313 versus righties in their last 10 games now and had it not been for Jimenez being awful yesterday, the Rockies would have won the game because they broke out the bats. The Giants are hitting only .239 in their last 10 games overall and the only bright spot has been their bullpen but the bullpen is useless when they come in already down four or five runs. Colorado has the bats to really make Matt Cain miss the days where he was pitching well in 2010 and this should be another Rockies win.

Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 5-21 in Matt Cain's last 26 road starts versus a team with a winning record.


Colorado 10, San Francisco 3





more to come...

I like the Mets alot.....GL today.....

adding...



Los Angeles Dodgers ML +110 (10 Units)

I was on the Dodgers in the first game of this series and what a complete joke of a performance that was by Kuroda. Apparently I missed the memo that the Dodgers would explode for 14 runs in their game yesterday, a 14-1 win in the second game of this series, and they once again have my attention. I talked about it before the first game of this series and betting on the Dodgers here as an underdog is a big time value play. I mean take a look at the history between these two teams and you'll see that the Dodgers are 9-2 against Arizona so far this season. Dan Haren is on the mound for the Diamondbacks but he is 0-3 against the Dodgers so far this season and the only time he pitched against them in this ballpark the D-Backs lost 13-3 back in May. So again the odds don't make much sense considering how dominant the Dodgers have been against the D-Backs all season long and considering that Dan Haren is 0-3 against the Dodgers in 2010. Chad Billingsley is on the mound for the Dodgers and he has struggled in recent starts but he is 2-1 against Arizona this season and he won a game here back in May. The Dodgers are batting .300 against right handed pitchers in their last 10 games and this could be a struggle not only for Dan Haren but for the Arizona bats as they are batting only .253 against right handed pitchers in 2010 and if their pitching staff can't hold down opponents, the offense is almost never there to back them up. The Dodgers have won four of five games on this road trip and right now they are playing like one of the best teams in baseball. No other play in this game.

Trend of the Game: LA Dodgers are 4-0 in Chad Billingsley's last four road starts.


LA Dodgers 8, Arizona 4





GOOD LUCK TO ALL!





:toast: