3 today w/analysis

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Yesterday 0-3-0 -6.00 Units
Last 30 Days 44-45-1 +23.20 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 124-152-2 +2.98 Units

All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
DETROIT –1½ +1.16 over Baltimore
Note the 1:00 PM EST start. The Tigers will send out Andy Oliver to make just his third major league start and the best news in terms of wagering is that Oliver is 0-2 and that makes him undervalued. Fact is, he could easily be 2-0 after throwing two rock-solid games against Atlanta and Minnesota, both on the road. In 12 innings, Oliver allowed just four earned runs while walking three and striking out 10. Oliver has four pitches that he commands well and watching him you can’t help but be impressed by his smooth and easy delivery. Now he’ll take a huge step down in class against an O’s team that has won four times in 16 games against lefties on the road. Overall, the O’s are 7-20 vs southpaws. Kevin Millwood is coming off a horrendous 8.82 ERA in June. Millwood won his last two games, which is once again proof how misleading W/L records can be. Over those two starts in which Millwood pitched the minimum five innings in both to qualify for a win, he allowed 16 hits, walked four and struck out five in those 10 innings. In five innings against the Marlins he threw 116 pitches and followed that up by throwing 108 pitches in five frames against the A’s. Millwood is not fooling anyone. He’s 35-years-old and his arm looks dead. He’ll pitch in the scorching heat today in a matinee game against a kid with a live arm, who can’t wait to get out there. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO –1½ +1.42 over L.A. Angels
The Angels had a breakout day yesterday by scoring 11 times but they faced an unproven career minor-leaguer named Anthony Lerew. Prior to that they were struggling miserably at the plate and you can expect more of that here against Gavin Floyd. Floyd (90 BPV, 5-5-4-5-3 PQS) is coming off a 2.58 ERA in June, has a 50% GB% for the year, hasn’t coughed up a HR in his last five starts and has allowed only two walks in his last three outings. Over his last five starts Floyd has allowed just five earned runs and has been the AL’s best pitcher over that stretch with an ERA of 1.26. Furthermore, the South Side is 8-1 over its last nine home games and they’re coming off a series win in Texas against the previously red-hot Rangers. The real kicker here, however, is betting against Scott Kazmir. Kazmir (6 BPV, 5-3-3-0-0 PQS) remains primarily a two-pitch pitcher without his once-lethal slider, something that hasn’t worked well for most of the season and not at all recently, as suggested by his last two PQS scores of zero. The signs say bet against him and that 1.2 hr/9 against a RH-leaning CHW lineup in HR-happy U.S Cellular Field. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.42 (Risking 2 units).

TEXAS –1½ +1.00 over Cleveland
First off, the Indians are now without Russell Branyan and Shin-Soo Choo, Combined, that duo has 23 jacks and 67 RBI’s. The rest of the team is loaded with guys that have anywhere between 1 and 6 bombs. This team was struggling offensively before Choo and Branyon went down and now one really has to wonder where the offense will come from. In order to win or cover the 1½-runs here, the Indians are going to have to score at least five times or more and that’s a huge stretch. They’ll face a rookie they’ve never seen by the name of Omar Beltre. Beltre hasn't pitched in the U.S. since '04 due to the inability to obtain a work visa. Beltre was pitching in the Dominican Summer League between '05 and '09. He has a nice assortment of pitches including a 90-96 mph fastball thrown with very quick arm action. His best pitch may be his hard splitter, which he buries deep in the strike zone and induces his fair share of groundballs. Beltre rounds out his arsenal with a good slider and in his first start against the Angels he struck out six in four frames. With that first start out of the way and a much-easier opponent here, expect better things from Beltre. Besides, the Indians will send out career stiff Aaron Laffey. Laffey shut down a struggling TOR offense in his last start, but his career and year-to-date numbers scream that the light-groundballer is very likely going to get ruined at this park. Play: Texas –1½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).









**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.


















 

New member
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Nov 23, 2005
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I read your posts all the time sherwood and respect your views, but just something I would appreciate in the future. You don't only have to post stats which favor your side. For instance with today's Tex pitcher, you should also mention the guy only went 4 innings and gave up 3 runs in his first start. Don't only mention that he had six strikeouts cause that causes confusion. Thanks.
 

Bulldog Mentality
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Feb 9, 2010
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Thanks for your analysis....really like Detroit also and will check into other two later.

BOL :103631605
 

New member
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Feb 17, 2010
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I'm on Detroit, going to look into the White Sox matchup a bit more. Thanks for the analysis and BOL to you today :toast:
 

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