How picking teams like lottery numbers can net you a big profit

I've been thinking about picking baseball games like lottery numbers for quite some time now. I know the idea sounds ridiculous on the surface, but from a mathematical perspective, it always seemed to me like the best way to hit multi-team parlays over time. I obviously do not make a habit out of playing parlays because, like you, I often hit 1 out of 2 ... or 3 out of 4 ... or 5 out of 8 or whatever. Parlays have never seemed to be a profitable bet — for obvious reasons.

But what if you picked the same combinations of teams every night for the entire season? And I'm not talking eight different teams; rather, just four games (a team and a total). An 8-team parlay can pay out anywhere from 200x your money (approximately even money bets) to 250x your money; it all depends on the odds.

Here's an example of the bets I'm talking about:

Parlay #1
Twins
Twins over
Athletics
Athletics under

Parlay #2
Marlins
Marlins over
Rockies
Rockies over

Parlay #3
Twins
Twins over
Athletics
Athletics under
Marlins
Marlins over
Rockies
Rockies over

You would play these same parlays every night and "wait till it hits."

A $10 bet on a 4-team parlay will pay anywhere between $100 and $200.
If you were to hit an 8-team parlay, that should pay you a minimum of $2,000.

Since I wanted this post to have some actual data, I decided to run a small test. The teams above were chosen at random using a scientific sampling method called close your eyes and point on the screen at AL standings and pick two teams, and close your eyes and point on the screen at NL standings and pick two teams. A coin flip was administered to determine whether the over or under would be used.

I then tracked the results of each game by date and organized them into a spreadsheet (if you would like to see the spreadsheet, feel free to ask.) I should tell you that I got tired after compiling results for the Twins and Athletics. But I did come up with a sample of 73 games from April 5th to June 30th, and after comparing the results — remember, we need a Twins win and over, and an Athletics win and under — it hit 8 times: April 16, April 17, May 8, May 21, May 22, May 29, May 31 and June 29.

At $10 per bet, we'd lose $650.
But with an average $120 win per parlay, we would win $960.
That's a total profit of $310.

An example of a winning day:

June 29

Twins -140
Twins over -117
Athletics +100
Athletics under +105

$10 bet pays $129

The question now becomes: Did the 8-team parlay ever hit?

I didn't take the time to go game-by-game with the Rockies and Marlins. Instead, I checked the results from the eight dates listed above since those were the only dates that could possibly have an eight-team winner.

Guess what?

On June 29 — just six days ago — there was an 8-team winner.

The Twins won, and the over hit.
The Athletics won, and the under hit.
The Rockies won, and the over hit.
The Marlins won, and the over hit.

The whole parlay would look like this:

Twins -140
Twins over -117
Athletics +100
Athletics under +105
Marlins +105
Marlins over -130
Rockies +110
Rockies over +110

Risk $10
Win $2,050

I have no idea if this system would work long term, if there is a particular strategy that would work better than others, if certain teams should be used, if you should go over or under or home or away or whatever. All I know is that in my admittedly very small sample size, picking teams like lottery numbers would have netted you a profit of damn near $2,000 with very minimal bets — while providing you with enough scattered winners along the way to keep you interested.

This type of wagering is obviously geared toward online players. Nobody would call this type of bet in to a bookie. But I posted because I'm curious to hear your guys' thoughts on this. I just thought it was interesting. Perhaps it could serve as a "supplemental bet" to your typical everyday wagering?

Some quick info on the teams used:

Twins | 44-38
Over: 35 times
Under: 42 times

Athletics | 41-43
Over: 34 times
Under: 44 times

Marlins | 39-43
Over: 42 times
Under: 36 times

Rockies | 44-38
Over: 36 times
Under: 44 times

Sounds interesting, not my cup of tea but I will be paying attention to see how it works for you.

Have fun watching your bankroll disappear.

Grind-It-Out said:

Have fun watching your bankroll disappear.

Click to expand...

lol

Grind-It-Out said:

Have fun watching your bankroll disappear.

Click to expand...

Re-read the OP if you must, but at no point did I say I would try this. I was asking for some feedback. The example I gave showed that this could win, and potentially big. And I used a sample where three of the four teams probably won't even make the playoffs. The likelihood of hitting will be significantly greater if you used teams like the Yankees. The payoff just wouldn't be as great.

Daffy Duck said:

Re-read the OP if you must, but at no point did I say I would try this. I was asking for some feedback. The example I gave showed that this could win, and potentially big. And I used a sample where three of the four teams probably won't even make the playoffs. The likelihood of hitting will be significantly greater if you used teams like the Yankees. The payoff just wouldn't be as great.

Click to expand...

Okay, but whether you actually use it or not doesn't change how bad of an idea it is.

There are two main differences between betting on sports and playing the lottery.

1. The lottery vig is higher than the vig in sports betting.
2. It is possible to overcome the vig in sports betting with skill, whereas this is not possible with the lottery.

No matter what system or approach you use to sports betting, the first difference above will always hold true.

But WHY would you want to give away the second difference? You're essentially turning sports betting into a casino game that you CAN'T beat over time.

When you dumb it down as simply as you just did, it made some sense. My first thought after reading your post was: "Hey, he's right. He makes a good point."

Then I thought about it for a minute, and I think comparing this to actual lottery odds seems a bit far-fetched. If you were to choose five numbers in the lottery, you are choosing 5 out of 80. Or something like that. The odds of winning the lottery are far more ridiculous than picking four winners (and the corresponding totals).

It stands to reason that, on days when the Yankees win, the game will go over the total. I say that because 60% of the time that has happened this year.

The Padres have won 49 games this season. The game went under the posted total in 31 (63%) of them. The Athletics have won 41 games and the under has hit in 24 (58%) of them. I'm sure there are far more extreme examples that we could come up with.

But again, I don't know. I think it's interesting. If this were about taking eight different teams to win, and then hoping like hell the stars all align on one day ... I'd say that would be hopeless. But the way I have set it up above seems like it could win. And the four-team parlays should hold you over until the day when it finally happens.

You will lose money this way.

And what kind of books offer you parlay in the money line and total of the same game???

These kind of books won't pay you even if you win. ^<<^

All books allow this. When I say "Twins over," I'm actually referring to Twins/opponent over.

99steak said:

You will lose money this way.

And what kind of books offer you parlay in the money line and total of the same game???

These kind of books won't pay you even if you win. ^<<^

Click to expand...

99 Steak,

Moneyline and total in the same game is normal at every book.

Did you mean runline and total?

Daffy,

Yeah, he must of thought it was moneyline and team total.

Daffy Duck said:

When you dumb it down as simply as you just did, it made some sense. My first thought after reading your post was: "Hey, he's right. He makes a good point."

Then I thought about it for a minute, and I think comparing this to actual lottery odds seems a bit far-fetched. If you were to choose five numbers in the lottery, you are choosing 5 out of 80. Or something like that. The odds of winning the lottery are far more ridiculous than picking four winners (and the corresponding totals).

It stands to reason that, on days when the Yankees win, the game will go over the total. I say that because 60% of the time that has happened this year.

The Padres have won 49 games this season. The game went under the posted total in 31 (63%) of them. The Athletics have won 41 games and the under has hit in 24 (58%) of them. I'm sure there are far more extreme examples that we could come up with.

But again, I don't know. I think it's interesting. If this were about taking eight different teams to win, and then hoping like hell the stars all align on one day ... I'd say that would be hopeless. But the way I have set it up above seems like it could win. And the four-team parlays should hold you over until the day when it finally happens.

Click to expand...

It doesn't matter whether you're choosing 5 teams or 800 teams, because it's about the payout/risk ratio, not about your winning percentage.

Your above examples show how you are bringing reason and rational into the system. Obviously, this is a great thing to do, but it makes it no longer a lottery system.

Right, perhaps "lottery" is a poor analogy or term to use. I used it only because most people who play the lottery don't change their numbers every day. They stick with the same five numbers every day for weeks and months and years — and never win.

Seems to me that if you take four teams that win 55%-60% of the time, with corresponding totals that hit 50%-55% of the time, you will eventually hit one. The random example I tested this morning had eight 4-team parlay winners out of 73 games (paying out an average of 12x-15x the wager), and also produced an 8-team parlay winner (paying out 200x the wager). This is only half the season.

Now, whether this would have occurred if I plugged in other teams or totals, I have no clue. I'm sure it's possible, though I'm also sure there are several instances where it might not have hit.

Anybody who has ever played blackjack or other table games at a casino has certainly seen the bonus bets you can make. Bonus bets, as we all know, are a sucker bet designed to swallow your money. But people who can stay afloat in blackjack or whatever table game of their choice will often make these micro wagers in hopes that they "strike it big."

That's the way I view these parlay bets. They are small enough that it won't have an impact one way or another on whether or not I have a winning day. But while I go up and down and suffer the inevitable ebbs and flows of baseball season, it sure would be nice to see the account spiked by one of these little parlays.

:lolBIG::lolBIG::lolBIG: