I've been thinking about picking baseball games like lottery numbers for quite some time now. I know the idea sounds ridiculous on the surface, but from a mathematical perspective, it always seemed to me like the best way to hit multi-team parlays over time. I obviously do not make a habit out of playing parlays because, like you, I often hit 1 out of 2 ... or 3 out of 4 ... or 5 out of 8 or whatever. Parlays have never seemed to be a profitable bet — for obvious reasons.
But what if you picked the same combinations of teams every night for the entire season? And I'm not talking eight different teams; rather, just four games (a team and a total). An 8-team parlay can pay out anywhere from 200x your money (approximately even money bets) to 250x your money; it all depends on the odds.
Here's an example of the bets I'm talking about:
Parlay #1
Twins
Twins over
Athletics
Athletics under
Parlay #2
Marlins
Marlins over
Rockies
Rockies over
Parlay #3
Twins
Twins over
Athletics
Athletics under
Marlins
Marlins over
Rockies
Rockies over
You would play these same parlays every night and "wait till it hits."
A $10 bet on a 4-team parlay will pay anywhere between $100 and $200.
If you were to hit an 8-team parlay, that should pay you a minimum of $2,000.
Since I wanted this post to have some actual data, I decided to run a small test. The teams above were chosen at random using a scientific sampling method called close your eyes and point on the screen at AL standings and pick two teams, and close your eyes and point on the screen at NL standings and pick two teams. A coin flip was administered to determine whether the over or under would be used.
I then tracked the results of each game by date and organized them into a spreadsheet (if you would like to see the spreadsheet, feel free to ask.) I should tell you that I got tired after compiling results for the Twins and Athletics. But I did come up with a sample of 73 games from April 5th to June 30th, and after comparing the results — remember, we need a Twins win and over, and an Athletics win and under — it hit 8 times: April 16, April 17, May 8, May 21, May 22, May 29, May 31 and June 29.
At $10 per bet, we'd lose $650.
But with an average $120 win per parlay, we would win $960.
That's a total profit of $310.
An example of a winning day:
June 29
Twins -140
Twins over -117
Athletics +100
Athletics under +105
$10 bet pays $129
The question now becomes: Did the 8-team parlay ever hit?
I didn't take the time to go game-by-game with the Rockies and Marlins. Instead, I checked the results from the eight dates listed above since those were the only dates that could possibly have an eight-team winner.
Guess what?
On June 29 — just six days ago — there was an 8-team winner.
The Twins won, and the over hit.
The Athletics won, and the under hit.
The Rockies won, and the over hit.
The Marlins won, and the over hit.
The whole parlay would look like this:
Twins -140
Twins over -117
Athletics +100
Athletics under +105
Marlins +105
Marlins over -130
Rockies +110
Rockies over +110
Risk $10
Win $2,050
I have no idea if this system would work long term, if there is a particular strategy that would work better than others, if certain teams should be used, if you should go over or under or home or away or whatever. All I know is that in my admittedly very small sample size, picking teams like lottery numbers would have netted you a profit of damn near $2,000 with very minimal bets — while providing you with enough scattered winners along the way to keep you interested.
This type of wagering is obviously geared toward online players. Nobody would call this type of bet in to a bookie. But I posted because I'm curious to hear your guys' thoughts on this. I just thought it was interesting. Perhaps it could serve as a "supplemental bet" to your typical everyday wagering?
But what if you picked the same combinations of teams every night for the entire season? And I'm not talking eight different teams; rather, just four games (a team and a total). An 8-team parlay can pay out anywhere from 200x your money (approximately even money bets) to 250x your money; it all depends on the odds.
Here's an example of the bets I'm talking about:
Parlay #1
Twins
Twins over
Athletics
Athletics under
Parlay #2
Marlins
Marlins over
Rockies
Rockies over
Parlay #3
Twins
Twins over
Athletics
Athletics under
Marlins
Marlins over
Rockies
Rockies over
You would play these same parlays every night and "wait till it hits."
A $10 bet on a 4-team parlay will pay anywhere between $100 and $200.
If you were to hit an 8-team parlay, that should pay you a minimum of $2,000.
Since I wanted this post to have some actual data, I decided to run a small test. The teams above were chosen at random using a scientific sampling method called close your eyes and point on the screen at AL standings and pick two teams, and close your eyes and point on the screen at NL standings and pick two teams. A coin flip was administered to determine whether the over or under would be used.
I then tracked the results of each game by date and organized them into a spreadsheet (if you would like to see the spreadsheet, feel free to ask.) I should tell you that I got tired after compiling results for the Twins and Athletics. But I did come up with a sample of 73 games from April 5th to June 30th, and after comparing the results — remember, we need a Twins win and over, and an Athletics win and under — it hit 8 times: April 16, April 17, May 8, May 21, May 22, May 29, May 31 and June 29.
At $10 per bet, we'd lose $650.
But with an average $120 win per parlay, we would win $960.
That's a total profit of $310.
An example of a winning day:
June 29
Twins -140
Twins over -117
Athletics +100
Athletics under +105
$10 bet pays $129
The question now becomes: Did the 8-team parlay ever hit?
I didn't take the time to go game-by-game with the Rockies and Marlins. Instead, I checked the results from the eight dates listed above since those were the only dates that could possibly have an eight-team winner.
Guess what?
On June 29 — just six days ago — there was an 8-team winner.
The Twins won, and the over hit.
The Athletics won, and the under hit.
The Rockies won, and the over hit.
The Marlins won, and the over hit.
The whole parlay would look like this:
Twins -140
Twins over -117
Athletics +100
Athletics under +105
Marlins +105
Marlins over -130
Rockies +110
Rockies over +110
Risk $10
Win $2,050
I have no idea if this system would work long term, if there is a particular strategy that would work better than others, if certain teams should be used, if you should go over or under or home or away or whatever. All I know is that in my admittedly very small sample size, picking teams like lottery numbers would have netted you a profit of damn near $2,000 with very minimal bets — while providing you with enough scattered winners along the way to keep you interested.
This type of wagering is obviously geared toward online players. Nobody would call this type of bet in to a bookie. But I posted because I'm curious to hear your guys' thoughts on this. I just thought it was interesting. Perhaps it could serve as a "supplemental bet" to your typical everyday wagering?