Yesterday 2 1 0 +3.16 Units
Last 30 Days 44 45 1 +23.26 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 126 153 2 +6.14 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Baltimore +1.76 over DETROIT
There are a few things to note here with the first being the O’s offense, which has suddenly started to string together some solid numbers. In fact, the O’s have scored 30 runs over its last six games and in three of those they scored six or more. They really have a good shot at putting up a few more here against Armando Gallaraga. There is no loyalty in wagering. Just four weeks after hurling the "perfect" game, Galarraga resides near the top of my fade list. How does this happen to a hurler with a 2.67 ERA and 0.98 WHIP? Well, a 4.68 xERA and a very low strikeout total reveal the true pitcher here. A 21% hit rate and 79% strand-rate disguise Galarraga's actual skill level. Gallaraga is just not that good and even against the O’s he’s way overpriced. Jake Arietta does not have good numbers and one has to be concerned about his walk/strikeout ratio, which is a horrible 16BB/13 K’s in 26 IP. However, he’s performing better with each starts and in two road starts his BAA is just .216. He’s had three very decent starts in five tries and that includes his season debut against the Yanks. Arrieta has a pretty good shot at success at this pitcher-friendly venue and thus, with a big take-back like this, the risk on the O’s is worth the reward. Play: Baltimore +1.76 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.28 over MILWAUKEE
Madison Bumgarner has made just two starts in the majors and we can see why he’s considered a top prospect. Overall, Bumgarner fared well in his first start against the Red Sox, as he gave up four earned runs in seven IP, allowing five hits, one walk, two HR and striking out five. The good news is that he gave up all four runs in the first two innings, and then settled down and did not allow another run. In his next start, in Colorado, another tough game, he went seven innings, allowing nine hits and just three earned runs and once again he walked just one and struck out five. So, in two starts, covering 14 frames against two tough opponents, Bumgarner has 10 K’s and he issued just two walks. He was 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA in his last 10 minor league starts prior to the recall amd now he’ll face a Brewers team that is very beatable and you can double that with Randy Wolf throwing. Wolf does not have many strong performances this year. He’s coming off a strong start against the Cards but who isn’t coming off a strong start against them? Fact is, Wolf has a 5.25 ERA at home to go along with a BAA of .297. Wolf posted a 3.34 ERA this April but things fell apart in May, however, as his ERA was 5.50, and he walked more batters than he struck out. If that’s not enough reason for worry, check out Wolf’s recent K/9 trend. 2007: 8.2, 2008: 7.7, 2009: 6.7, 2010: 5.9. Unless that trend reverses, expect to see more months like May in his future. The Giants have woken up with two wins in three games and over that stretch they’ve scored 20 runs, a trend that can certainly continue here. Play: San Francisco +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +2.06 over TEXAS
The Indians may not win here but they’re absolutely worth a wager against C. J. Wilson, a guy who might be very vulnerable to getting whacked. You see, Wilson has already surpassed his season high in IP, as it was previously 74 and now he’s logged 106 innings and we’re just into July. He’s a reliever turned starter and all the signs are there that fatigue is setting in. For one, he’s walked 17 and struck out 17 over his last four starts. Also note that he faced the Astros twice and Mariners once in three of his last five starts, so he’s been able to avoid being exposed. While it's been a good ride so far and Wilson has demonstrated a solid skills foundation, he has now entered uncharted IP territory and will very likely pay the big price very soon. Committing to this guy at this price could be a huge mistake. Furthermore, Justin Masterson is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Masterson has an elite groundball % of 64%. He threw a two-hitter vs the Red Sox on June 2 and he’s coming off a gem against the Blue Jays. Masterson’s confidence is much stronger these days and it’s also worth noting that he catches the Rangers at precisely the right time. After a stretch in which they were hitting everything and everybody, the Rangers have slowed way down. In fact, over its last six games the Rangers are batting a combined .216, which is dead last in the AL and overall, only the Cubbies and Astros have been worse over that stretch. The Indians won and scored nine times last night and there’s no reason they can’t win again tonight. Definite overlay. Play: Cleveland +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
Last 30 Days 44 45 1 +23.26 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 126 153 2 +6.14 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Baltimore +1.76 over DETROIT
There are a few things to note here with the first being the O’s offense, which has suddenly started to string together some solid numbers. In fact, the O’s have scored 30 runs over its last six games and in three of those they scored six or more. They really have a good shot at putting up a few more here against Armando Gallaraga. There is no loyalty in wagering. Just four weeks after hurling the "perfect" game, Galarraga resides near the top of my fade list. How does this happen to a hurler with a 2.67 ERA and 0.98 WHIP? Well, a 4.68 xERA and a very low strikeout total reveal the true pitcher here. A 21% hit rate and 79% strand-rate disguise Galarraga's actual skill level. Gallaraga is just not that good and even against the O’s he’s way overpriced. Jake Arietta does not have good numbers and one has to be concerned about his walk/strikeout ratio, which is a horrible 16BB/13 K’s in 26 IP. However, he’s performing better with each starts and in two road starts his BAA is just .216. He’s had three very decent starts in five tries and that includes his season debut against the Yanks. Arrieta has a pretty good shot at success at this pitcher-friendly venue and thus, with a big take-back like this, the risk on the O’s is worth the reward. Play: Baltimore +1.76 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +1.28 over MILWAUKEE
Madison Bumgarner has made just two starts in the majors and we can see why he’s considered a top prospect. Overall, Bumgarner fared well in his first start against the Red Sox, as he gave up four earned runs in seven IP, allowing five hits, one walk, two HR and striking out five. The good news is that he gave up all four runs in the first two innings, and then settled down and did not allow another run. In his next start, in Colorado, another tough game, he went seven innings, allowing nine hits and just three earned runs and once again he walked just one and struck out five. So, in two starts, covering 14 frames against two tough opponents, Bumgarner has 10 K’s and he issued just two walks. He was 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA in his last 10 minor league starts prior to the recall amd now he’ll face a Brewers team that is very beatable and you can double that with Randy Wolf throwing. Wolf does not have many strong performances this year. He’s coming off a strong start against the Cards but who isn’t coming off a strong start against them? Fact is, Wolf has a 5.25 ERA at home to go along with a BAA of .297. Wolf posted a 3.34 ERA this April but things fell apart in May, however, as his ERA was 5.50, and he walked more batters than he struck out. If that’s not enough reason for worry, check out Wolf’s recent K/9 trend. 2007: 8.2, 2008: 7.7, 2009: 6.7, 2010: 5.9. Unless that trend reverses, expect to see more months like May in his future. The Giants have woken up with two wins in three games and over that stretch they’ve scored 20 runs, a trend that can certainly continue here. Play: San Francisco +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +2.06 over TEXAS
The Indians may not win here but they’re absolutely worth a wager against C. J. Wilson, a guy who might be very vulnerable to getting whacked. You see, Wilson has already surpassed his season high in IP, as it was previously 74 and now he’s logged 106 innings and we’re just into July. He’s a reliever turned starter and all the signs are there that fatigue is setting in. For one, he’s walked 17 and struck out 17 over his last four starts. Also note that he faced the Astros twice and Mariners once in three of his last five starts, so he’s been able to avoid being exposed. While it's been a good ride so far and Wilson has demonstrated a solid skills foundation, he has now entered uncharted IP territory and will very likely pay the big price very soon. Committing to this guy at this price could be a huge mistake. Furthermore, Justin Masterson is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. Masterson has an elite groundball % of 64%. He threw a two-hitter vs the Red Sox on June 2 and he’s coming off a gem against the Blue Jays. Masterson’s confidence is much stronger these days and it’s also worth noting that he catches the Rangers at precisely the right time. After a stretch in which they were hitting everything and everybody, the Rangers have slowed way down. In fact, over its last six games the Rangers are batting a combined .216, which is dead last in the AL and overall, only the Cubbies and Astros have been worse over that stretch. The Indians won and scored nine times last night and there’s no reason they can’t win again tonight. Definite overlay. Play: Cleveland +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
