MistaFlava's MLB Baseball Tuesday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (July 6, 2010)

MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 16-22 (-102.95 Units)



Tuesday, July 6


Atlanta Braves ML +122 (10 Units)

The value is 100% with the the Atlanta Braves in this game. Both teams are struggling at the plate right now and this will probably be another low scoring affair but again the value has to be with Jair Jurrjens. His two starts against the Phillies in 2009 (one at home and one on the road) were a pair of 3-2 losses and both of them came with Joe Blanton on the other side of the mound. Don't forget it was only a month ago that Atlanta swept the Phillies at home and they have had their number on a few occasions this season. In his last three starts Jurrjens has been decent but not great but the pitchers who have won against this Phillies lineup in 2010 have been right handed pitchers as the Phillies have hit .257 at home against righties compared to .283 against lefties. They are batting only .230 versus righties in their last 10 games and .383 against lefties in those same games. Philadelphia is actually 0-2 in his last three starts and the team has lost all three games. He has a 5.50 ERA in those starts with a 1.33 WHIP so the Braves can do some damage although they have been better against righties. Hamels beat the Braves at home earlier this season but allowed 8 hits in 5.0 innings pitched and got out of some sticky situations. When he faced them against in early June, he lasted less than an inning and allowed 3 ER's in the first inning before leaving the game in a 7-3 loss in Atlanta. This is a big game. It will be low scoring but Jurjjens has been more effective in his career against the Phillies.

Trend of the Game: Philadelphia is 1-6 in Cole Hamel's last seven starts.


Atlanta 4, Philadelphia 2





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Minnesota Twins ML -133 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE NIGHT***

I was the first to say I would take the Blue Jays in this game for the simple fact that they are finally home and ready to unload on the confines of the Rogers Center but both Aaron Hill and Vernon Hills are out for tonight and that's a big deal. The reason for that being that they both hit Home Runs earlier in May when the Blue Jays beat the Twins and Carl Pavano 11-1 in this building. That's a big deal. Tonight's Blue Jays lineup is going to look a bit like a minor league lineup and right now the Jays are reeling as a team. They are coming off a season crushing 1-6 road trip losing some very close games that can really take the morale away from a team that has been overachieving. Pavano was rocked here earlier this season but it was one of his first starts of the season and he has since come a long way. Don't forget Pavano dominated Roy Halladay in this building last September and he has pitched well here in the past. In his last three starts Pavano is on absolute fire and the Jays are going to struggle. He has allowed only 14 hits in 24.1 innings pitched in those three starts with an ERA of 1.11 and a WHIP of 0.70 in those games. The Blue Jays have some ice cold bats right now and are batting only .224 in their last 10 games. That's a problem. Jesse Litsch is on the mound for Toronto and his last two home starts against Minnesota have resulted in two wins a combined score of 24-2 for the Jays in those games but Litsch is 0-2 in his last three starts, where he has an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.18 in those games with only 1.3 runs of support per game. Minnesota is coming a big series loss at home against the Rays and they need to get back on track and Toronto with Pavano is how they are going to do it.

Trend of the Game: Toronto is 1-5 in their last six starts versus right handed starters.


Minnesota 7, Toronto 1





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Los Angeles Angels ML -107 (10 Units)

It doesn't make any sense at this point in the season to go against Jered Weaver the way he is pitching. Not only did the Angels lose the first game of this series after sweeping the White Sox here in a two gamer at the beginning of the year but they are a very good road team (22-19) so far this season and I just don't see them going down twice to a team like Chicago. Weaver is on fire right now. Sure the Angels have lost seven times when he is the starter this season in his 17 starts but in his last three starts he has an ERA of 0.86, a WHIP of 0.57 and he is getting 5.7 runs of support per game in those starts. Jake Peavy on the other hand is also having his best stretch as a starting pitcher since coming over here from the San Diego Padres with an ERA of 1.23 and a WHIP of 0.86 in his last three starts. Having said that, the last time he was horrendous in a game in 2010 was back in May at home against this very same Angels lineup that seem to have his number. He allowed 6 ER's in that game and had it not been for the Angels bullpen blowing a brilliant start from Ervin Santana, the game would have finished a lot better than 6-5 for the Angels. Weaver last pitched here in 2008 going 8.0 shutout innings of three hit ball in a 2-0 win for the Angels. With both pitchers pitching so well I have to go with the guy who can go deeper into games and the guy who has dominated this very same White Sox lineup in the past. I don't see the Angels losing twice in a row on the road.

Trend of the Game: LA Angels are 5-0 in Jered Weaver's last five starts versus the White Sox.


LA Angels 6, White Sox 2





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Thanks Man!

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Arizona Diamondbacks ML +107 (10 Units)

You know this is not an easy one because you want to believe that the Cubs 9-4 win in the opener of this series last night meant something to this team and that they can finally turn the corner and start playing better baseball but I don't think that's going to be the case. The Cubs are only 16-24 on the road this season, they have not been consistent and now they have to try and win for a guy who is having a great year but who can't get any run support in recent weeks. Carlos Silva is on the mound for the Cubs in this game and poor guy is pitching well but the team is 0-4 in his last four starts and they have not won for him since early June. It's not a secret that Arizona doesn't like batting against lefties and that's why they had so many problems with Tom Gorzelanny last night. This ballpark was made to smash the ball off right handed pitchers and the D-Backs are batting .280 against right handed pitchers at home this season. Barry Enright is on the mound for Arizona tonight and he is making his second career start. You had to be impressed with his first career start, a 4-2 win in St. Louis last week where despite having control issues he managed to go 5.0 innings and allow only 1 ER and 4 hits. Impressive to say the least and I think he'll be a lot more comfortable at home against a team hitting .239 versus right handed pitchers on the road this season. I think Arizona bounces back and takes the second game tonight with the rookie on the mound. On a side note, Carlos Silva allowed 5 ER's in his only home start of the season against Arizona back in May.

Trend of the Game: Chicago is 3-14 in their last 17 games following a win.


Arizona 9, Chicago 3





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Seattle Mariners ML +100 (10 Units)

There is just no way I can back Zack Greinke on the road as a heavy favorite. I do all my betting with Pinnacle so I was not able to take advantage of the prices being offered on the Mariners out there but if you shop around quite a few books have +140 (5 Dimes) and +135 (Bodog) so there is a big disparity between some of the books for this one. If you think Greinke is worth that price on the road then you are definitely heading down the wrong track. This is the same Zack Greinke that is 1-5 on the road this season and despite pitching well for some reason the team does not show up for him away from home and it has been a problem all season long. His stats on the road are just fine because he's good at finding ways out of trouble. Having said that, take a look at the last time he was a heavy favorite on the road this season and you'll see that back on May 18 he was a -140 in Baltimore and the Royals lost the game 4-3. I know a large part of the public will be on Greinke because he has not allowed an ER in his last three starts versus Seattle going 23.0 innings pitched with 0 ER's allowed now. Ryan Rowland Smith got rocked by Kansas City earlier this season but that was in April and it was on the road. He was tremendous in his last home start as an underdog beating the Cincinnati Reds 1-0 a few weeks ago and in what is an exact same pitching rematch from their August meeting of last summer, Rowland-Smith should come out on top as he pitched 8.0 innings in that game and allowed only 3 ER's in a 3-0 loss to Greinke and the Royals. The Royals starters have an ERA of 5.45 away from home this season compared to Seattle's starters who have all been golden at home with an ERA of 2.85 as a unit. I will take Seattle to pull off the upset.

Trend of the Game: Seattle is 5-1 in their last six games versus a right handed starter.


Seattle 2, Kansas City 1





:toast:

What the hell are you talking about!!How could you have bet this at +100.Right now at Pinny the line is +134.The only line close to what you are saying you got is Seattle +1 which is at -101.This makes me believe you are not even betting this game.Unless I`m missing something here you are really f-cked up!!!

So, it bothers you that he is saying that he bet and took a shitty line??

billsfan said:

So, it bothers you that he is saying that he bet and took a shitty line??

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I believe lipsman1 answered you question.