Yesterday 1-2-0 -1.44 Units
Last 30 Days 44-46-1 +21.72 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 127-155-2 +4.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
WASHINGTON +1.01 over San Diego This one is all about playing against Jon Garland and his declining numbers. Garland is 8-5 with a very respectable 3.24 ERA and those surface stats make him look pretty good when in fact, he’s not even close. Back on May 14, Garland’s ERA was 1.88, so it’s risen about 1½ runs since then. In three of his last four starts he faced the Astros, Jays and Orioles and that trio is at the bottom of the rankings in terms of runs scored and team BA. Against Houston, Garland lasted five innings and surrendered three runs but he was very fortunate, as he walked six and could have easily surrendered closer to eight runs. He surrendered four runs to both Baltimore and the Jays and overall against those three he went just 16 innings, allowed 17 hits and 11 earned runs. Garland’s record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills and his chances of getting whacked triple when he’s not pitching at Petco. J.D. Martin is 0-4 but has a respectable 3.38 ERA and deserves better. Martin has elite control and that alone makes him worthy of some strong consideration here. He’s walked just four batters in 34 frames while striking out 22. He’s pitched mainly on the road but in his lone start at JFK, he went six innings and allowed just one run against the White Sox. Anyway, this one is more about playing against Garland and we’ll continue to play against him until he’s not overvalued. Play: Washington +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.06 over TORONTO
Marc Rzepczynski makes his season debut here. He has some very decent career numbers that includes a 3.67 ERA to go along with a BAA of .225. Thing is, he’s only made 11 starts in the majors and has only pitched 60 innings. Rzepczynski was a candidate to make the rotation out of spring training before breaking the middle finger on his left hand near the end of camp and he hasn’t been the same since. His minor league numbers this season are ugly and they include a BAA of .314 and an ERA of 6.66 in nine starts. In one stretch in late May, Rzepczynski allowed 31 hits in 10.2 innings covering just three starts. The Twins are more dangerous against lefties and it’s also worth noting that the Jays are in freefall mode. Kevin Slowey is a risk for sure. He’s coming off a gem against the Tigers but prior to that he was rocked for 20 hits and 17 earned runs in his last 12.1 innings. However, the Jays keep making lousy pitchers look good, they’re just 1-8 over its last nine and they’re a favorite with a guy pitching that’s been struggling in the minors. Play: Minnesota +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 44-46-1 +21.72 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2010) 127-155-2 +4.70 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
WASHINGTON +1.01 over San Diego This one is all about playing against Jon Garland and his declining numbers. Garland is 8-5 with a very respectable 3.24 ERA and those surface stats make him look pretty good when in fact, he’s not even close. Back on May 14, Garland’s ERA was 1.88, so it’s risen about 1½ runs since then. In three of his last four starts he faced the Astros, Jays and Orioles and that trio is at the bottom of the rankings in terms of runs scored and team BA. Against Houston, Garland lasted five innings and surrendered three runs but he was very fortunate, as he walked six and could have easily surrendered closer to eight runs. He surrendered four runs to both Baltimore and the Jays and overall against those three he went just 16 innings, allowed 17 hits and 11 earned runs. Garland’s record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills and his chances of getting whacked triple when he’s not pitching at Petco. J.D. Martin is 0-4 but has a respectable 3.38 ERA and deserves better. Martin has elite control and that alone makes him worthy of some strong consideration here. He’s walked just four batters in 34 frames while striking out 22. He’s pitched mainly on the road but in his lone start at JFK, he went six innings and allowed just one run against the White Sox. Anyway, this one is more about playing against Garland and we’ll continue to play against him until he’s not overvalued. Play: Washington +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.06 over TORONTO
Marc Rzepczynski makes his season debut here. He has some very decent career numbers that includes a 3.67 ERA to go along with a BAA of .225. Thing is, he’s only made 11 starts in the majors and has only pitched 60 innings. Rzepczynski was a candidate to make the rotation out of spring training before breaking the middle finger on his left hand near the end of camp and he hasn’t been the same since. His minor league numbers this season are ugly and they include a BAA of .314 and an ERA of 6.66 in nine starts. In one stretch in late May, Rzepczynski allowed 31 hits in 10.2 innings covering just three starts. The Twins are more dangerous against lefties and it’s also worth noting that the Jays are in freefall mode. Kevin Slowey is a risk for sure. He’s coming off a gem against the Tigers but prior to that he was rocked for 20 hits and 17 earned runs in his last 12.1 innings. However, the Jays keep making lousy pitchers look good, they’re just 1-8 over its last nine and they’re a favorite with a guy pitching that’s been struggling in the minors. Play: Minnesota +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
