two today w/analysis

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Baltimore/TEXAS over 9½
If there were a real list of “pitchers to fade” every week you might find both Tommy Hunter and Jeremy Guthrie near the top of that list. Tommy Hunter’s 1.98 ERA is an illusion that cannot last and because he’s facing the Orioles here, we get a pretty sweet number to go over against. Fact is, Hunter has a 38% groundball rate and that is one of the lowest rates in the majors. He also has an unsustainable 83% strand rate and a 24% line drive rate on batted balls and frankly, all of those numbers are alarming. Forget his surface stats; Hunter has been the luckiest pitcher in the majors and his ERA is going to skyrocket north and it’s going to happen soon. Guthrie can also be categorized as a pitcher with a mundane skill set. A disturbing monthly trend exists with flyballs and HRs for Guthrie; FB% is on the rise (39%, 43%, 45%) as well as hr/f (7%, 9%, 11%). Guthrie pitching in Arlington is a disaster just waiting to happen. One really has to figure at least one of these teams to score seven or more. Play: Texas/Baltimore over 9½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

MILWAUKEE –1½ +1.86 over San Francisco
Note the 2:00 PM EST start. You could lay six cents here if you like and that certainly is the safer play with a higher percentage of cashing but the pitching match-up heavily favors the Brewers. Also consider that this is a day game after a night game and with the Giants winning the first three games of this set, chances are good they’ll be sitting more regulars than the home team. The Brewers were down 11-1 after four frames last night and some of the regulars were pulled and given the rest of the night off. Barry Zito’s road ERA (4.86) is better than two runs higher than home ERA (2.83). I’ve been saying for weeks that a big correction is coming in Zito’s numbers and he hasn’t disappointed. Zito has a 7.63 ERA over his last three starts. Zito is still flashing the same mediocre skills that have resulted in him never having a winning season with the Giants. He’s a big-time imposter that got off to a good start and will very likely get rocked again today. Meanwhile, Manny Parra is so close to being a completely dominating pitcher. The only thing from preventing that is his control, as he’s still walking too many batters. Over his last 33.2 innings, Parra has struck out 39 batters and he’s also been much better at home than on the road. Lastly, Aaron Rowand has seven AB’s against Parra while the rest of the Giant hitters have a combined 9 career AB’s vs Parra and that, too, gives the Brewers a significant edge. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.86 (Risking 2 units).
 

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I doubt the Texas game gets played tonight. Already heavy rain and it doesn't look like it's going to stop.
 

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