MistaFlava's MLB Baseball Tuesday ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (July 8, 2010)

MistaFlava's 2010 MLB Baseball Record: 22-30 (-102.65 Units)



Thursday, July 8


Milwaukee Brewers ML -118 (10 Units)

Something has to give here on Milwaukee. They have lost the first three games of this series, their superstar players are not hitting the ball well at all and from what I have heard Ryan Braun is not going to be in the lineup today for Milwaukee, which could be a good thing the way he's been hitting. What I know about this game is that both starting pitchers have struggled pretty badly over the course of their last three starts. Barry Zito on the mound for the Giants as he attempts to lead his team to a sweep of the Brewers but in his last three starts he is only 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA and a WHIP of 1.70 in those games. Manny Parra, another left handed starter, is on the mound for Milwaukee and despite an ERA of 6.06 and a WHIP of 1.90 in his last three starts, the Brewers are 2-1 in those starts and he is one of the only guys Milwaukee has decided to support on the mound with 7.3 runs of support in those last three starts. What bothers me about backing Zito in this spot is the fact that since joining the San Francisco Giants he has made five starts against Milwaukee, all five have been in Milwaukee and not a single one of those starts was a Quality Start. He never once made it past the six inning of a game here and the Giants are 1-4 in his five starts in this ballpark. The Brewers are the other hand are 2-1 in Parra's three career starts against the Giants and Parra did have two Quality Starts in mid-June that have me thinking he'll do just enough to lead his guys to a win today. I know both teams struggle to hit the ball and both teams struggle against left handed pitchers but the Brewers should come out on top in this game.

Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 1-4 in Barry Zito's five career starts in this ballpark.


Milwaukee 5, San Francisco 3





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Colorado Rockies ML -142 (10 Units)

I know it looks like all the value in the world is with Chris Carpenter at +134 against a team he has dominated in the past but at some point you have to look at the value on the other side of the mound and you have to think that Vegas wants everyone on the Cardinals in this game. Right now Ubaldo Jimenez is going through one of the worst stretches of pitching in his career, no doubt about it. Even though the team is 2-1 in his last three starts, in those starts he has an ERA of 8.66, he has a WHIP of 1.53 but his team has provided him with a lot of run support to the tune of 8.7 runs per game. So with stats like that how in the world is Jimenez and the Rockies favored by that much over a guy like Chris Carpenter who is 9-2 on the season? Well for starters Carpenter has not been pitching as of late either recording an ERA of 5.00 with a WHIP of 1.56 in his last three starts. I know he has allowed only 1 ER in his last two starts (14.1 innings pitched) at Coors Field and he really knows how to handle himself in this ballpark but right now Carpenter and the Cardinals are a bit flustered, they have not played well on the road and they have to face the best pitcher in all of baseball who is looking for a way out of his funk. I think what Jimenez needs is just this, a daytime start and I say that because so far this season he is 7-1 in eight daytime starts with an ERA of 1.39 in those starts compared to an 8-1 record in nine night starts with an ERA of 3.12 in those games. Carpenter on the other hand is 3-2 in his seven daytime starts this season with an ERA of 4.43 and the team has somewhat struggled when they go down early. Jimenez doesn't have the best history against St. Louis and he has never beat them at home in two career starts but the Rockies are just pounding away at opposing pitchers right now, they are destroying righties in their last 10 games and I just don't see them missing a chance to sweep the Cardinals and move closer to the division lead. This game has huge Wild Card implications and I really like Jimenez to shine like he always does in daytime games.

Trend of the Game: St. Louis is 0-9 in their last nine Game 3 of a series.


Colorado 6, St. Louis 1





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should read Thursday on the title.

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Philadelphia Phillies ML +100 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MONTH***

This makes no sense and the guys in Vegas know what they are doing. So you are telling me that a team like Cincinnati that is red hot right now, that is coming off 7 wins in their last 10 games and that is coming off road series wins in both Chicago and New York are only going to be small favorites of -106? Come on now. We weren't born yesterday and the smart money is obviously going to come in on the Phillies late in this game. First and foremost Johnny Cueto is on the mound for Cincinnati and he's been great in recent games going 8-2 on the season in 17 starts and he's 2-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 0.45 and a WHIP of 1.45 in those games. On the other side of the mound is Kyle Kendrick who has an ERA of 5.59 and a WHIP of 1.45 in his last three starts. On paper it looks like Cueto has a huge edge in this one and again it doesn't make much sense that the Reds are only small favorites seeing the way they have played. My concern for Reds backer is that Cueto is due for a bad start. His WHIP in the last three starts has been 1.45 and in those starts he's had only 3.7 runs of support per game. At some point when the opponent wakes up it's going to be a mess for the Reds and Cueto. Also make note that in his only career start in Philadelphia he got tagged for 9 ER's, he never made it out of the first inning and the Reds lost here 22-1 last July. Philadelphia is coming off a series that saw them lose two of three at home against the Division leading Atlanta Braves and times are getting serious for the Phillies to start winning again. They were in Cincinnati a few weeks ago and lost two of three there with this exact same pitching matchup and a 7-3 Reds win at home. Philadelphia is 3-7 in their last 10 games, Cincinnati is 7-3 in their last 10 games, the Reds have a better pitcher on the mound, they are the better overall baseball team and somehow they are only short favorites in this game tonight. Cincinnati is batting only .259 versus right handed pitchers on the road this season and the Phillies pitching is a lot better at home than it is on the road. Kendrick is not the kind of guy who is going to keep the Reds off the board but overall this season he's allowed only 14 HR's in 16 starts which is a bonus considering the Reds are one of the biggest power hitting teams in the Major Leagues this season and they rely quite a bit on the long ball to get things done. I know Cueto has looked good in his last three starts but his 1.45 WHIP is a big time concern and I think memories of last year's disastrous first inning once again come back to haunt him in this game tonight. This is my top play of the month and my first big play of the 2010 MLB season.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 1-4 in their last 5 games played in Philadelphia.


Philadelphia 8, Cincinnati 3





more to come...

GL Mr

Thanks again!

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Toronto Blue Jays ML -113 (10 Units)

Both teams are struggling to win baseball games right now and this makes this a tossup of a game. The Twins at least are hitting the ball well in their last 10 games but their pitching has been atrocious. The Blue Jays are struggling to hit in their last 10 games and their pitching has been a complete joke with their starters putting together an ERA of 6.75 over the course of the last 10 games and the Twins starters putting together an ERA of 5.17 over the course of their last 10 games. Believe it or not the Jays bullpen has been better than Minnesota's bullpen with their 2.36 ERA in those last 10 games compared to 3.76 ERA for the Twins bullpen in those very same games. The Blue Jays do however have the big time edge in pitching-batting matchup tonight because they avoid a left handed starter. The Jays hit .267 at home against righties this season compared to only .204 against left handed pitchers in the Rogers Center. Minnesota in recent games have been a lot better against right handed pitchers hitting .293 against them compared to .261 against southpaws in that same span of games. Brett Cecil has been awful for the Jays in recent weeks but he did pitch a gem against Minnesota late last year at home. Scott Baker has also been horrendous in his last three starts and he's in big time trouble in this game because of the simple fact that he can't keep the ball down and is very susceptible to the Home Run ball. He has allowed 10 Home Runs in only eight road starts this season and now he faces the best Home Run hitting team in baseball. His last quality start on the road was back on May 19 in a 3-2 win in Boston. Cecil did get rocked by Philadelphia and St. Louis in his last two home starts but he dominated the Yankees and the Orioles in the two home starts prior to that and I expect we see a lot more of that now that he is back to facing familiar American League opponents. Cecil is a tough kid and he knows he can pitch. The Jays are the play in this game.

Trend of the Game: Minnesota is 5-16 in their last 21 games played in Toronto.


Toronto 7, Minnesota 2





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Florida Marlins ML -110 (10 Units)

The one and only reason I really like the Marlins to win this game is because Arizona, much like Toronto and other middle of the pack teams, have depended almost uniquely on Home Runs this 2010 season and what has it done for them? Well their 32-53 record speaks for itself really and the problems will continue in this game tonight. Arizona is one of the top five Home Run hitting teams in Major League Baseball this season but tonight they run into a pitcher who has allowed only 4 HR's all season long in 16 starts. Anibal Sanchez just doesn't allow Home Runs and that's going to be a problem for Arizona. The Diamondbacks already struggle enough to hit the ball as they are batting only .241 in their last 10 games that without the Home Run power it's going to be tough for them to put runs on the board. Rodrigo Lopez is on the mound for the D-Backs and he is the complete opposite of Sanchez having allowed 18 HR's so far in 2010 while making only 17 starts. Florida is a team with some decent power and that could really be a big factor in this game. The Marlins come into this game having won three of their last four against Atlanta and the LA Dodgers and losing games like this one tonight is no longer an option when you are playing that well. Lopez has made nine home starts so far this season and he is 2-4 in those starts with an ERA of 5.08 and a WHIP of 1.50. The starting pitching is pretty even however because Lopez does find a way to get run support and he does find a way to get out of jams. However, Florida's bullpen has been very good all season long while the Diamondbacks bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball. That should be the difference.

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 2-14 in their last 16 home games versus a team with a losing record on the season.


Florida 6, Arizona 4





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New York Yankees ML -148 (10 Units)

I don't really understand the odds because it seems like the Yankees are in one of those grooves that is going to see them win 10+ games in a row so why back down from the now? The Yankees come into this game off a sweep of the Oakland Athletics and they have now won five straight games. Believe it or not they are batting only .238 in their last 10 games (Seattle is batting .231 to put things into perspective) but the difference has been their starting pitchers and their bullpen who have been decent all around and allowed them to win games and come through in the clutch. For those of you considering betting on Jason Vargas and the Mariners because he is having a decent season, please consider that in his last three starts the Mariners have hooked him up with a grand total of 3 runs of support in the three games combined (so 1.0 runs of support per game) while his counterpart tonight Andy Pettitte has been getting 9.3 runs of support per game in his last three starts. Not only is Pettitte on fire and pitching like we have not seen him pitch in years but he has always dominated Seattle for some reason recording six straight Quality Starts against the Mariners and 9 of his last 10 starts against this team have been Quality Starts. Impressive. Pettitte is 3-0 on the road this season, the Yankees are 5-1 when he starts on the road and he's been one of the most effective road pitchers in the American League in 2010. Vargas has been very solid at home and he does prefer pitching here than on the road but in his one and only career start against the Yankees he was rocked for 4 ER's in only four innings pitched and I just don't see him stopping a team that is so hot right now.

Trend of the Game: The Yankees are 21-5 in Andy Pettitte's last 26 starts as a favorite.


NY Yankees 4, Seattle 2





:toast:

wow you still suck.